Jason Ross

Now that is Corey Patterson.

So two things: I think things are a little different when we speak of the MLB. For example, I play in an adult men's wood bat league. Putting the ball in our league is key - it almost doesn't matter where you're hitting it, the guy you're hitting it at is paying to play in our league instead of being paid to play baseball - there's a high probability he's going to horsefeathers it up. At the MLB level, especially with the influx of defensive data, teams aren't running out DH level defenders any more, and while true that putting the ball in play gives you a slight hope, it's a really low chance now a days. The article's point is exactly what you're kind of arguing and that in most scenarios a strikeout, at the MLB level, effects your run probability almost the same as any other out. With runners on, it can result in you saving an out (as there's a very low chance of a double play on a strikeout). I do think strikeout rate and contact rates matter - they're real tools and there's break points on those things. But anecdotally, a strikeout in a given scenario probably isn't as dreadful as many fans make it out to be.

I've taught middle school of fourteen years. Baseball forum is the most even keeled place that I frequent daily. Not a single one of you attempted to use a four hour old hot dog you smuggled out of the lunch room as a tool in your Ted Talk.

It's pretty unlikely. There are only so many Miguel Cabrera's in the world. I'm glad for him, as Smith seems like a really decent dude. but the Cubs' Greg Allen (career 73 wRC+) and Vidal Brujan (career 50 wRC+) have both homered recently too. Spring training is practice. It can be fun, but rarely means anything when we're speaking of results (I do think mechanical fixes, new pitches, and process are worth keeping eyes on!).

This was a really fun thing to record! Highly recommend people checking it out.

I think you're missing the forrest through the trees, Tom. You'll notice I've never once said Brethowr is any of those players - only that long swings, don't necessarily eliminate a player. You're really misrepresenting my point here. The goal isn't to say "Ivan Brethowr is Paul Goldschmidt", it's to say "long swings aren't immediately disqualifying, so while his swing is long, we should be more holistic than to write him off for a single flaw". Why am I using these players? Because we have publicaly available statcast data for them - sadly this is the group of people I kind of have to use. I think we're on my third or fourth time in the article and the comments saying that the likely outcome here is something far short of those players. I think we're on the same page on the uphill battle Brethowr has. I just ask that you try to understand my point - I'm not saying, and I haven't said he's any of those players. I haven't connected him to them outside of the most tenuous connection - that tall players can succeed with long swings so there's more to the story than just "long swing = bad".

Yes! And a group of prospects who were all stat cast darlings. Cam Smtih, Cole Mathis, Ivan Brethowr, Edgar Alvarez, Cameron Sisneros all kind of fit this mold. Interestingly enough most of these players showed fairly good contact ability as well - you can find reasons why each may struggle with contact as they move up levels, so they're not perfect players but they definitely had a mold last year.

Yeah I wouldn't make any direct comparisons to the two (and I've done my best not to as it's unfair to both for a multitude of reasons) - they're both big guys and that's probably where it's going to end. Brethowr's a seventh round selection and comes with plenty of things to overcome. I do think it's important to point out that you can be successful with a long swing - Arrenado, Judge, Bell, Goldschmidt, Machado, Raliegh, Ohtani....are all far from short kings who have some of the longest swings in baseball and have had various degrees of MLB success. Having a long swing isn't immediately disqualifying and comes with the territory of being a big dude. Regardless, I do think the mechanical improvements are worth a longer look. I didn't realize how much I hated his swing in college and how much more I like it today. Will it result in a perfect storm? Almost assuredly not, but it gives it a platform. At least a better platform than the old mechanics gave him, IMO. I'm certainly far more excited about him today than I was previously, even if it's a "deep sleeper" type.

Swing does get a bit long. Hoping that with a reduction of movement pre-swing that it can shortened that a bit. Part of it, however, is just being 6"6. There's a lot of arm to move and you're just naturally going to have a longer swing. Not making a 1:1 comparison here, but Aaron Judge has a bottom 1% swing length. He's super long because he's huge, too. He's an elite talent and I dont want anyone to think I'm saying Brethowr is Judge, but that a long swing, on the surface, isn't an instant detractor.

I'm guessing he'll get the bump to South Bend. I hate reading too much into ST - there's many reasons why the Cubs might be getting a look at him currently - but he's not looked outmatched. And every time I rewatch his new mechanics...I realize how piss-ugly it used to be compared to how simple and easy it looks now. He'll be 22, and as a bat first prospect...I think the Cubs will put him up there. Owen Caissie really struggled at South Bend and they promoted him regardless so I assume the Cubs will promote him as well.

The Chicago Cubs' 2024 seventh-round pick has been making some noise (literally and figuratively) in the first week of spring training. What could we see from him in 2025? Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images If you've been following the Cubs during their opening week of Cactus League games, it's pretty likely you got to see Ivan Brethowr absolutely clobber a baseball 450 feet to deep left field. While that kind of result is really fun, it's probably important to very quickly remind everyone that spring training is little more than a glorified string of practice games, and that these things shouldn't really change a lot of our perceptions. At the same time, it was a little preview of some of the tantalizing upside that Brethowr has, and it's worth diving a little deeper into the prospect who's making himself quite noticeable in Mesa. The first thing that immediately stands out with Brethowr is his size. He's listed at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds, so he cuts an imposing figure for a pitcher to have to face. He's a massive human being to begin with, then you add in a baseball bat? Yeah, there's a bit of an intimidation factor. Many across social media platforms have been quick to compare him to Aaron Judge, though that's almost assuredly unfair. While there's a pretty massive frame on the seventh-round pick, he's shown enough athleticism in his college days to have swiped 14 bags, so while he's not going to threaten often, there's enough to make you believe he's capable of moving decently. As with anyone with this imposing stature, there are both positives and negatives. On one hand, Brethowr looks like he can murder baseballs, and he can—but 6-foot-6 bodies can be used against you, as there's just more human skeleton to control. What this means for prospects like Brethowr are that swings can get long and be less twitchy, and pitchers can use the inside part of the plate (where it's harder to clear your hands) against you. Already, Brethowr has (at times) struggled to make enough contact with the baseball to use his power and his frame; this will be something to monitor going forward. If there's good news in terms of his contact ability, it's that the slugger showed an ability to work on making more contact through his time in college. From his sophomore to junior year, he was able to lower his strikeout rate from 26.7% to 18.3%.. Even better, the reduction in strikeout rate did not come with a reduction of power, as his ISO and SLG went up, as well. He did struggle in his initial run with the Cubs' Low-A affiliate, the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, striking out 27% of the time and not really hitting much, but the hope is that it's a small sample in a very difficult-to-hit league, and that maybe these things iron themselves out through development. A reason to be optimistic; I'm pretty sure the Cubs have already tweaked Brethowr's swing since the end of the season. Looking back at his time in Santa Barbara, his back shoulder was kept in a more relaxed, less fixed position: you could call it "loose". As he swung, back then, his hands loaded backward and stayed low to create an angle of attack to send the ball into the air. You can see the hand placement, the elbow, and the hand load on this homerun he hit in May. Compare this to Brethowr this spring. It's a bit hard to see, as we're at the mercy of spring training's more austere selection of cameras, so we're looking straight on, but Brethowr's back shoulder is clearly in a more fixed and higher position. I would imagine, as well, that his hands may be pulled back a bit to help shorten his swing and/or make quicker decisions. There does not seem to be the same hand loading, and his hands seem to stay in place more. This is a good thing. It'll create a natural "rubber band" effect, and let him use his size and leverage to power the baseball—as opposed to forcing extra movement into the swing. With his size, he's got plenty of muscle already. One of the things that ESPN Pipeline brought up in his draft profile was that he had "a slow trigger," but he could be unlocked with "swing adjustments". I think we're seeing the Cubs attempt to make those. At least in this instance, it resulted in a 450-foot home run that had an exit velocity just shy of 109 mph. Compare his swing here to the previous video. What should we make of this? As fun as his home run was, it's an uphill battle for the outfielder. Brethowr struggled in Myrtle Beach, and he must show that he can handle A-ball pitching before we dream about him hitting windows across the street from Wrigley Field. Despite that, this is my favorite kind of seventh-round pick. There's at least one skill you can bank on being top-of-the-scale (in this case, the power), with enough other skills and potential tweaks that it could all come together in a beautiful storm. A realistic and successful 2025 season probably has the slugger ending in Tennessee, with strikeout rates in the low-20s, and flashing that 70-grade raw power plenty. An unsuccessful season probably sees him struggle to make enough contact in Myrtle Beach or South Bend for the entire season. Perhaps those subtle swing tweaks will be the difference needed in turning a mid-round pick into something very fun down the road, and unlocking that perfect storm outcome. What do you think of Ivan Brethowr? Do you think he can unlock his potential? Did you notice the subtle mechanical tweaks? Let us know in the comments below! View full article

Exactly. I use ST as a point of curiosity. "Oh the Cubs are working on this with Player X? Interesting". It's a good window into how the Cubs are looking at a player developmentally, I feel. These changes or fixes aren't things that just happened, they have likely been working on these things for months. Some make big differences, some don't work...but I always find it interesting.

I tend to look at ST as a glorified practice. I'm rarely interested in results - for example, a player hitting well or not does little for me. I'll expand that belief a little if we're looking at a veteran player (IDC at all about their results) versus a young player and give a bit of a look to a younger player, but overall, results don't matter so much. What I do think matters are differences. Does someone show up with a new swing? New mechanics? Is their velocity jumping? Are they flashing a new pitch? These are things that I kind of...jot down and keep an eye on as we move forward. I wouldn't bank on that new skill that they're flashing in a small sample, but it's a noteworthy change and could mean something. For example - Brethowr is showing a far improved swing. That might matter. Mathew Boyd flashed a new slider. That might matter. Many of them may not matter eventually, but it's worth taking note and keeping it in the back of your head.

I think we should probably consider the things that are being traded here in exchange for these players. The Mets already have a pretty full outfield - they have Soto, Nimmo and Siri. They also have Jesse Winker (who's probably more of a DH but can moonlight in the OF). They have Jeff McNeil who can play corner OF. They have Tyrone Taylor and Starling Marte. And to get Canario, they paid cash. If Canario had value in a trade, an OF needy team would have given something up for him. Instead, a team who isn't OF needy on paper traded just cash for him. Probably a good reminder that Canario just isn't viewed very highly in Chicago (they have given him little chance to earn a spot, then they DFA'd him) nor around the league. And likely for cause.

There's been a big swing change. Big. Swing. Change. Give it a few days and there will be something about it on the home page.

My initial thought was "That's Jorge Soler for sure". But considering that I don't think it'd be that easy, I'll go and say that's Junior Lake.

I think we are past Killian as a viable MLB starter territory. He simply cannot induce enough swing and miss at the highest levels to be a starter. He's struggled to develop any sort of whiff or chase pitch. Id assume he spends most of his season as a BP convert where you hope he can run the fastball up to the high 90s and in short spurts can use velocity and continue to develop a 2nd pitch to be used in middle relief.

Id bet that's a MiLB deal and a camp invite. He can provide depth as a worst case rash of injury at the start of the year.

I will always have a weird relationship with the Darvish trade. The timing and the return was rough - it was always going to be a slog to recoup value when you trade for four teenagers. The flip side is that Caissie was someone I really enjoyed as a 2nd round pick in the 2020 draft and was bummed when he ended in SD. Seeing him come back in that trade has always been fun for me. It will probably be a disappointing outcome even if Caissie is pretty good due to the wait time and the other three flaming out nearly instantly. With that said, decent chance the Cubs get a single good player back so it'll be far from horrible.

Yeah good call on the gloves. His swing style looked very Womack-esque but its too old. It's a 90s guy.

Now bully Kyle Tucker into signing a long term contract that starts with a 4. Go get 'em Jed.

+1 to the Tony Womack train.

I think they're being dramatic. Even last year, his value was pretty limited. He was returning from a pretty devastating injury, all while striking out 28% of the time with low contact% numbers in Iowa, undoing the 2022 progress. No one was going to give up much for that. His peak value was in that short time between 2022 and when he got hurt in winter league, but even then the contact% increase was iffy to continue and you'd really want to see it a bit longer than he flashed that skill.

But what role do you think Mike Tauchmann filled? He's a LHH and the Cubs have all three outfielders who hit left handed (Happ hits right handed, also). He's also trending in the wrong direction defensively - he was a negative OAA CF'er last year and is turning 34. So it isn't like he's providing plus defensive ability there. More so, the Cubs barely used him last year once PCA established himself - he played 40 games and have under 80 PA's the second half (compared to over 200 PA's and 60 games, showing that he was not starting often at all in the 2nd half). He had 30 PA's in the entire month of September. It's likely his role on the 2025 Cubs, with an all left handed OF is probably even less. With any injury to PCA, I would also assume that Kevin Alcantara would be next-man-up, not Tauchmann regardless. Two things can be true simultaneously - Mike Tauchmann is a pretty decent fourth OF'er, and the Mike Tauchmann doesn't really fit a role in Chicago with the Cubs. I'd love to get things for people, sure, but sometimes players like Mike Tauchmann leave for free because they don't fill a role. I don't find that a failure on the part of Jed Hoyer. The Cubs CF situation is a bit weird currently - I'd assume Jon Berti and Kyle Tucker will get some time there to spell PCA if Brujan doesn't make the team. But again, they have a top-100 prospect in Kevin Alcantara ready in the wings if need be, so I still think the team is pretty fine there.