Jason Ross

The Iowa Cubs have a stacked team, and specifically, a stacked outfield. Since they boast two top-100 prospects, it's easy to forget that teams deploy three of those. The third guy in the Cubs' Triple-A outfield, however, isn't a nobody, and there's reason to believe he's better than he's been credited for. Image courtesy of © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Christian Franklin was the Cubs' fourth-round selection in the 2021 draft. At the time, it felt like the Cubs got a bit of a steal. Franklin was a draft-eligible "sophomore" from the SEC who had a good run of production; you'd tend to find these types higher in the draft. The reason I used the quotations around sophomore is probably a bit of the reason why Franklin was picked when he was. He got an extra year of eligibility due to the pandemic-shortened 2020 collegiate season. As of late May 2021, MLB Pipeline had him targeted as a potential fourth outfielder. Even so, it felt hard to think there were really 122 better prospects in the draft, and not to think that the Cubs kind of got a bit lucky he was there. Between 2021 and today, Franklin has had success at every stop. Offensively, he's been 25-30% better than average at every stop along the way. He's displayed really strong plate discipline and strikeout numbers, which has been a major driver in his offensive ability. If you were to look for some negatives, they would generally come with his power numbers; Franklin's never been a big slugging guy. As someone who, defensively, is likely more suited for a corner spot, this can be a bit of an issue when we consider his ceiling. The former Razorback's highest isolated slugging has been a .162, during his stay at High-A South Bend. Since then, he's been well below .100 and hasn't displayed the oomph you'd really want. While this isn't immediately disqualifying, it makes the road that much more difficult to traverse. This season has seen Franklin enter another gear. While his raw numbers aren't mind-blowing, they are just good enough to kind of hide the true story. Sporting a 116 wRC+, a 22 K% and a 17 BB%, Franklin's line is consistent with what he always does. It would be easy to come to the conclusion that nothing had changed. All you would have to do is peek under the hood, though, and you'd begin to see what improvements he's made. Baseball America, in a post from April 7th, highlighted Franklin as a Statcast standout. These numbers are two weeks old. and in the early part of the MiLB season, two weeks can mean a lot. With that said, they highlight many of the early indicators someone would look for to suggest that there was something different. The outfielder was a standout early in making contact against all types of pitches, making hard contact, and—generally speaking—being a menace to opposing pitchers. . If you were worried that this was small-sample stuff, all he's done is keep it up. Looking at Franklin's up-to-date (as of this writing, April 22nd) batted-ball profile suggests there is no letdown. He's making a lot of hard contact; swinging at the right pitches; and making some real strides. Amazingly enough, his wOBA of .388 seems unlucky so far, as his expected wOBA is .413, To compare to the I-Cubs' other two outfielders, Owen Caissie has an xwOBA of .404 and Alcantara has an xwOBA of .355. Both are great, yet Franklin outpaces both. In the Baseball America article, one thing to note is that Franklin attributes the difference in contact quality to using a larger bat. This isn't the first Cubs outfielder to switch to a heavier bat and see their level of contact quality increase. The parent club's starting center fielder, Pete Crow-Armstrong, has seen similar results. This isn't the only change, however. From a mechanical standpoint, there's been a bit of a change over the last year. Below is Franklin during ST in 2024. Franklin hits a home run off of Chasen Shreve to left field. Note both his hands, and his load. It's a simple load that really doesn't engage the lower half of his body well. It's not a bad swing, by any means, but it could probably be better, especially for someone of Franklin's stature. This isn't Ivan Brethowr (who stands 6-foot-6). This is someone who, at best, scrapes 5-foot-10. He can't use natural leverage or size to his advantage in the same way. Christian Franklin slugs a two-run home run 03172024 MLBcom.mp4 Compare that swing to the one below. This comes from April 14th of this year, roughly a year later. Franklin will drive a ball to deep left-center field. What I'd pay attention to: His hands are in a slightly different area. His engagement of his lower half. He isn't going with a super funky leg kick, but there is more motion on the front foot. He's not just toe-tapping, but lifting. This is helping to create momentum and weight transfer—or, in other words, power. This is important for someone in a smaller package; they need to find ways to create power. It suggests that the strong batted-ball numbers aren't random. They're not an accident. They're planned, and they're the results of real changes, in terms of trying to do more damage per swing. Franklin's hot start seems more than a minor heater. A heavier bat, a better lower half in his swing, strong plate discipline and pitch recognition make Franklin a deadlier hitter. I'll stop short of claiming that Franklin needs to be placed alongside Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara on top-100 lists. He's a few years older, much smaller, and probably doesn't offer the same high-end outcomes as the previous two. But the more that Franklin hits this way, the more I'm convinced that the Cubs have a big-league player on their hands, and possibly one who could offer starting upside. I'm getting some Mike Tauchman vibes from Franklin. This isn't meant to be a stylistic comparison, but it's a thumbnail sketch of what Franklin could be. Tauchman was (and is) a quality member of a big-league outfield. He's capable of being your team's corner outfielder, but could moonlight some in center field. The bat was always approach-over-power, but you could find just enough home runs to make it play as a platoon piece. That Franklin isn't pulling the ball a ton in Triple-A gives some pause on how much power he'll flash at a higher level, but the approach shouldn't be a concern. That's why I keep coming back to that Tauchman vibe. The good news for the Cubs is that Franklin is just 25, and carving out a six-year career even as a fourth outfielder would be very valuable. How the Cubs handle their embarrassment of riches in the minors remains to be seen. Franklin probably can't replace Caissie or Alcántara in a trade for (say) Sandy Alcántara in July, but he could make the Cubs more comfortable moving one of those guys, or be used as a really interesting second piece in a trade for a team who's interested in what the batted-ball profile says. Regardless, Franklin has come a long way. He's gone from a fourth-round selection, to an interesting prospect, to someone I think I've slept on for too long. Don't make the same mistake. What do you think of Christian Franklin? Do you think the changes to his swing are the catalyst for his strong batted-ball data? What kind of a ceiling do you think he has? Let us know in the comment section below. View full article

Exactly this. I appreciate the idea of a creative solution for a straight forward problem, but I don't think the Cubs need creativity here. Jon Berti is...fine. His xwOBA is .324 currently. suggesting some unlucky outcomes, he adds base running and he's a fine fielder. A star? No. But the Cubs are getting well above average offensive contributions across the board and Berti can stabilize. That's all they need right now. Just go be a 90 wRC+ hitter, a somewhat positive fielder, and steal bases for a few weeks. Let Shaw work on his timing (his timing still seems off in Iowa; he's just a little disconnected right now) and when he gets it back together, you go back to Matt. Straightforward solution for a straightforward problem.

I do! TJ Stats has a Patreon page that also allows you access to his app. His app uses fangraphs and MiLB statcast data to generate these plots for every player in Triple-A and in the Florida League (the only other league with accessible Statcast), Runs $10 a month with a $5 first month discount. I use them a lot because of the articles and the podcast I do through here, so for me, I can say fully worth it.

BJ Murray was horrible in Iowa last year. He had a 72 wRC+ with all of the batted ball data to suggest he was every bit that bad. He wouldn't be the first prospect to find his footing eventually, surely, But let's put it this way: Gage Workman, in Double-A, posted a 142 wRC+. Then he skipped Triple-A. And he had, supposedly a good glove. How's that working out? BJ Murray is the same age, repeating Double-A and doesn't have a good glove. He failed badly at Triple-A as well. There is literally zero reason the Cubs should give a PA to Murray at the MLB level right now. Murray needs to continue to hit at Knoxville, then show up to Iowa and show that the numbers last year are behind him before he becomes viable. Impossible? Certainly not. But that's beyond desperation at this stage for a team who doesn't need desperation.

He's not ready - that's the profile of someone struggling with pitch recognition. He's making good contact when he hits it, but he's chasing a ton and whiffing a ton. There really isn't a creative option right now. But the Cubs shouldn't force it - just play Berti. He's fine. The offense is doing great. The Cubs don't need to try to ruin a Cowles (who's still learning Triple-A) or force a 1b to play 3b in Johnny Long. Matt Shaw should hopefully be back in a few weeks.

Listen, half the reason the last two have been all-timers are because of the bullpen. They're just entertainers.

Yeah. He's special.

A bit harsh, but his calling card is his glove. Offensively he's outmatched. He might be able to learn his way into being an MLB hitter, but offensively, he's not adding much for a bit. If he can't make the fairly tough ones defensively? I try to be pretty nuanced, but this isn't the first gaffe he's had. Could be in his head. Could be a "we thought his glove was better than it is" type of scouting...but it's not working right now for him. On a human level I feel bad, on a baseball level, if his glove isn't going to be plus then I'm not sure he's an MLB option right now.

I filled out my top-20 and kind of blanked on even adding him - being that he's been with the parent club all year and having never really been a "Cub" prospect prior. On one hand, I feel bad for the kid on a human level for how rough tonight was. On the other, my prospect list...

Vidal's helmet held on for dear life until the bitter end.

W!

Jed playing 4D chess. Amaya can't hit a home run off Tanner Scott if Tanner is in your own damn bullpen. It's why he let the Dodgers sign him.

MIGGY!!!!

C'mon, Gage.

Can't be. I've been told more than once that the Cubs didn't have any star type prospects over the last few years. Sadly, that means his performance is merely "okay" or "pedestrian". Dealer's choice.

@Brock BeauchampCan I get Ivan Brethowr, Juan Tomas, Alexey Lumpuy, and Kevin Alvarez added?

No one can convince me otherwise; Drew Pomeranz hired Tom Segura to carry his bag.

Hopefully his control is a bit better. He's been a bit off at the start of the year. I like his slider-fastball-mustache combo, though.

A few other good names!

Names to add: Ivan Brethowr, Alexey Lumpuy, Juan Tomas, Kevin Alvarez Some names we can likely delete: Brennen Davis, Cam Smith, Luis Vazquez, Alexander Canario, Juan Bello - all are outside of the org now (Just some prospect dork cleanup suggestions)

While certainly not impossible, Roberts and Miller represent similar profiles - they both should limit hard contact using a sweeper/slider heavy approach and work far better against RHP. Having both is probably overkill on that profile. I would agree with Bertz that the likely answer is that Roberts will be optioned to Iowa. It's fine, it's not criminal, only a bit of a bummer from his stand point.

Good to see the Cruz name pop up. You'll have to forgive my lack of source on it at this moment (I'll look it up shortly again) but, I believe it was BA who had an interesting blurb on Cruz - the Cubs thought Cruz outhit Cam Smith on the Trajekt system over the fall and winter. That's obviously not game stuff, but he feels like a guy who could have some real helium behind him.

Bummer if it's Roberts down. He's looked a bit like he's settling in, but Miller is probably a more stable version of "limits hard contact" from the right handed side as is.