Outshined_One

It seems like going further back than that he's had a bit of a good run too. I like that his OBP is 103 points higher than his average.

Ehhhhhh...I may have gone a bit overboard in ripping him, since Dusty's usage patterns this year have seen him face more righties than lefties. However, his HR/9 in general and his numbers against right handers are disconcerting. He should only be used against left handers, needless to say.

Ohman's a mediocre loogy. The Cubs could find guys as good as him, if not better, in their own system.

Trax has his good stuff today, dude.

Rain delay.

More souvenirs for fans in the bleachers!

I'm Keith Hernandez!

bobby-coxer: what the hell just happened PeteOrria: I ... I don't know, I was just about to seque into a joke about The Silence of the Lambs and all of a sudden I'm staring at Dick Clark's brown eye. AChipOffTheOl'_erJones: It's TBS, whenever it rains they go the archives so it's either bloopers, James Bond movies, or WCW Saturday Night. AChipOffTheOl'_erJones: Just be thankful that we don't play for the Cubs. WGN cuts away from 9th innings to see how kids do at Bozo's Grand Prize Game.

My friend's comment was that Nady needed a fishing pole to reach 2B. I'm inclined to agree.

Actually, that's a common name for that part of the city.

Nady was way, way, way off the bag.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

So, are you saying we're going to trade Murton, Cedeno, and Wuertz to Seattle for Rafael Soriano, Clint Nageotte, Yuniesky Betancourt, and two minor leaguers? would you be surprised? Frankly, I'd expect him to throw Rich Hill into that trade for good measure. I was just trying to match up deals. ;)

So, are you saying we're going to trade Murton, Cedeno, and Wuertz to Seattle for Rafael Soriano, Clint Nageotte, Yuniesky Betancourt, and two minor leaguers?

Campusano struck out more batters in fewer innings and had a better WHIP and BAA (.180) at Peoria than Rapada at West Tenn (BAA: .194). He also handled his promotion to AA better than Rapada handled his promotion to AAA. Both were terrific, but I liked Campusano's performance better than Rapada's.

Box Scores Iowa won 6-4 Box Score CF F. Pie 0/4, K, HBP RF B. Coats 2/4, BB, R 2B M. Fontenot 1/3, BB, 2 R, RBI, HR (7) LF M. Restovich 1/4, R, K 1B M. Hoffpauir 0/3, BB, R, 3 K 3B C. McGehee 2/4, R, 4 RBI, HR (6) C G. Soto 0/4 PH L. Montanez 0/1 SP R. Wells 7 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 6/1 K/BB, WP, HBP, 10-5 GO-FO West Tenn won 3-2 Box Score 2B/RF R. Lewis 0/3, RBI, E (5, fielding) CF M. Negron 0/3, BB, K RF B. Sing 0/3, K PH N. Jackson 0/0, BB 1B B. Dopirak 0/4, K 3B S. Moore 1/4, K, PO (1B) C J. Fox 1/4, R, RBI, HR (2), 2 K SP C. Shaver 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 7/2 K/BB, 3-5 GO-FO Daytona lost 2-0 Box Score CF S. Fuld 0/3, BB 2B J. Simokaitis 1/4, 2 K RF R. Harvey 1/4, K DH J. Muyco 0/0, 2 BB SS J. Mota 1/3, K SP R. Sotolongo 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 6/2 K/BB, 3-7 GO-FO RP G. Johnson 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1/1 K/BB, 1-1 GO-FO Peoria won 4-2 Box Score CF D. Gregg 1/3, BB, K, CS (11) 3B R. Malone 1/4, R, 2 RBI, 2B (7) RF J. Valdez 1/3, BB, RBI, K 1B R. Norwood 1/4, RBI, K SS K. Reynolds 1/4, 2 K, SB (6) 2B R. Chirinos 0/4 DH A. Garcia 1/3, BB, R SP M. Atkins 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 5/1 K/BB, Balk, 3-10 GO-FO RP M. Avery 1 scoreless, 1 H, 3/0 K/BB Boise won 5-3 Box Score RF M. Camp 1/5, R, RBI, 2B (2) CF T. Colvin 2/4, R, RBI, 2 SB (2) 3B J. Lansford 1/4, K 1B R. Canzler 2/4, R, RBI, 2B (6), E (5, throw) DH E. Puello 0/4, 2 K 2B S. Clevenger 3/4, R, RBI, 2B (2), E (4, missed catch) LF DJ Lewis 2/4, 2 2B (8), K C M. Mercedes 2/4, R, RBI, 2B (5), K SP J. Pina 5 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3/2 K/BB, WP, 7-5 GO-FO RP J. Papelbon 3 perfect, 2/0 K/BB, 3-4 GO-FO Mesa won 9-3 Box Score SS V. Heredia 1/4, BB, R, K, SB (5), CS (4) L. Rosario 1/3, BB, 2 R, SB (2), HBP 1B L. Murphy 0/3, R, RBI, K, HBP PH/3B M. Gonzalez 0/3, BB, RBI PR W. Inoa 0/1, R CF D. Rundle 1/3, R, 2 K RF C. Andersen 1/4, K LF C. Gilbert 2/3, BB, R SP K. Kopach 3.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1/2 K/BB, 3 HBP, 7-2 GO-FO RP R. Hernandez 2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2/1 K/BB, 2-2 GO-FO RP L. Holdzkom 1 scoreless, 1 H, 2/0 K/BB, 0-1 GO-FO OVERALL: 5-1

He still can play 3B, but Casey McGehee gets most of the time there. I'd like to see him called up and given a look when Walker is traded. He could end up being a pretty good bench guy.

Best Reliever of the First Half Once again, I'm evaluating only guys who are eligible for Rookie of the Year. I am also only counting guys who have pitched at least 30 innings as relievers this season. Unfortunately, this leaves out Michael Wuertz and Jeremy Papelbon from the running. I will discuss both briefly below. Candidates LHP Clay Rapada (AAA): 7 G, 4.2 IP, 5.79 ERA, 12 H, 0 HR, 3.21 WHIP, 4/3 K/BB (AA): 33 G, 43.2 IP, .82 ERA, 30 H, 1 HR, 45/10 K/BB, .92 WHIP, 21 SV Total: 40 G, 48.1 IP, 1.30 ERA, 42 H, 1 HR, 49/13 K/BB, 1.14 WHIP, .225 BAA, 21 SV RHP Thomas Atlee (AAA): 9 G, 12 IP, 5.25 ERA, 10 H, 2 HR, 6/10 K/BB, 1.67 WHIP (AA): 25 G, 43 IP, 1.67 ERA, 31 H, 2 HR, 33/11 K/BB, .98 WHIP, 2 SV Total: 34 G, 55 IP, 2.45ERA, 41 H, 4 HR, 39/21 K/BB, 1.11 WHIP, .199 BAA, 2 SV RHP Rocky Cherry Total (AA): 29 G, 46.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 40 H, 3 HR, 46/14 K/BB, 1.16 WHIP, .182 BAA, 2 SV LHP Ed Campusano (AA): 5 G, 7.2 IP, 4.70 ERA, 10 H, 2 HR, 13/1 K/BB, 1.43 WHIP, 1 SV (Low A): 26 G, 29.2 IP, 1.21 ERA, 16 H, 0 HR, 47/9 K/BB, .84 WHIP, 21 SV Total: 31 G, 37.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 26 H, 2 HR, 60/10 K/BB, .96 WHIP, .188 BAA, 22 SV RHP Adalberto Mendez Total (High A): 37 G, 49 IP, 1.84 ERA, 37 H, 1 HR, 57/12 K/BB, 1.00 WHIP, .201 BAA, 14 SV RHP Matthew Avery Total (Low A): 30 G, 46.2 IP, 1.16 ERA, 29 H, 2 HR, 47/21 K/BB, 1.07 WHIP, .172 BAA, 8 SV Analysis First off, I think shoutouts are in order for Jeremy Papelbon and Michael Wuertz, who would both be in contention for this award were they eligible for it. Papelbon has yet to give up a run during his stint in Boise, striking out 17 and walking 4 in 14 innings. Wuertz, on the other hand, would be a strong candidate for this award with his performance down in Iowa thus far. 35.1 IP, 1.78 ERA, 58/8 K/BB, and 2 HR is fantastic for a reliever. He's quite similar to Rich Hill at this point... Regarding the guys above, as you can tell, the Cubs have been quite well off when it comes to pitching in their system. The starters have put up some gaudy numbers and the relievers have followed in kind. While it is much harder for a guy to make it to the majors if he is largely a reliever in a team's system rather than a starter, a number of guys still can make it and succeed on that path. This group of guys is no exception; they have helped slam the door and hold leads with the best of them. Also, once again, the Cubs have stellar performances from guys at every level. Ron, you have been especially lucky considering how many of these guys have been in AA! It is incredibly clear that, from a pitching standpoint, the Cubs have pieced together a formidable group of starters and relievers this year. The Cubs have plenty of pitchers in this system who could blossom into major league-caliber players. These are some of the best guys from a terrific group of relievers Thus, it is with great pleasure that I bestow this award upon: LHP Edward Campusano Let's face it, he mowed down the competition at Peoria and earned a double promotion to West Tenn, where he is starting to settle in and re-establish himself. This award was easy to give considering his strikeouts and ability to miss bats. That's just snazzy, in my opinion. Here's hoping he keeps this up when he gets up to Chicago! :D Tomorrow, I'll be discussing risers and fallers. Should be fun times!

Sexy!

Pssssssssssst, Tobias. This is a snake-style draft. You get two picks in a row.

And in the majors as a whole, all of the Top 40 BA guys have averages at or over .305. I mean, cripes, these guys have all made the major leagues, it only figures that they've managed to post walk rates higher than .045. The major league average is about .060 (I believe), so it pretty much figures those guys can post >.350 OBPs.

Currently hitting .260, too. Told ya a hot streak would get his AVG back up. :D

Quick, call him up to be Glendon's replacement!

You are right; there is no such thing as a perfect statistic. There is no single stat out there which can tell us how good a guy is or how good a guy will be. Every one of them has flaws; OBP measures all stats as equal, SLG doesn't count walks, AVG can be heavily dependent on cheapies, RBIs are team-dependent, and so on. However, stats are incredibly important because we can't be there. I've never seen a Chiefs game in person, despite my best efforts. I can't tell you what I think about Ryan Norwood's footwork around the bag or Yusuf Carter's stance. The vast majority of Cubs fans only know about these guys and their potential based on their stats. We also try our best to use as many stats as possible to evaluate a guy because we want to get the best possible read on a guy and would hate to make a misstep because we didn't realize his HR/9 was abnormally low. Secondly, stats are helpful because they can tell us about a guy beyond what we see with our eyes. Just looking at him and watching him, maybe some people think a guy is a good ballplayer who should be starting for the Cubs every day. He has good ABs, seems smooth in the field, and is well-respected and a leader in the clubhouse. However, upon looking at the stats, we find out that the guy is hitting .250/.270 with 2 HRs in 100 ABs. Furthermore, his backup, who seems like less of a ballplayer in the field, is actually hitting .280/.370 with 4HRs in 50 ABs. Team wins are all that matter in the end, but the guys with the best stats are most likely to get a team the most wins.

The problem is, he was specifically talking about in the minors. Averages are really hard to predict year-in, year-out with minor league guys. One of the best ways to determine how well a guy will do as he advances through the minor leagues is not his average or K/BB (both of which are common threads for a lot of guys this team targets), but his IsoD, which IS a measure of how many walks (and HBPs) a guy takes. People point to strikeouts being the problem with Ryan Harvey and Brian Dopirak as they have advanced. However, what people tend not to realize was that their walk rates were absolutely putrid, especially when you factor out IBBs. These guys had reasonable averages and everything, but they were focused more on making contact than on taking pitches. Averages are incredibly hard to predict, year in, year out. So many things go into them: luck, defense, selectiveness, and so on. Those of us who follow BABIP see this; there are elements that can inflate or deflate a guy's average in any given year. The point of my post regarding Pierre was to show that high averages DO NOT correlate to high OBPs all the time. Look at guys like Robinson Cano, Gary Matthews Jr, Miguel Tejada, and a number of the other guys who are hitting over .300 this year. Even though they have good averages, their on base percentages are not much higher. That element of their game is a weakness. However, with guys like Travis Hafner, Bobby Abreu, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, and so on, they have that ability not to make outs. They hit well, but they also take walks and have OBPs in the .400s. I maintain that the reason why they are such good hitters is not because they know how to hit, but also because they have a really good approach at the plate that allows them to not make outs. The Cubs can't get that through their heads. They'd rather have a guy who hits .300/.350 than a guy who hits .270/.380 because they value hits over walks. That kind of approach in the minor leagues is simply begging for trouble, especially considering guys will continue to face more advanced pitching as they ascend the minors. The truth is, if they're at the same levels, same ages, and so on, the .270/.380 guy is more likely to reach the majors and succeed than the .300/.350 guy.