Howard seemed to be on the verge of a breakout when he had a freak hip injury in 2022. High school SS prospects are basically lottery tickets as is, and he was drafted in a COVID year (2021) on top of everything else, so I wouldn't read too much into it beyond bad luck.
To their credit, the Cubs have actually had a really good run of 1st round picks going back to 2012, with only Ryan Jensen (2019) and Ed Howard (2021) never making the majors, and even then, Howard could still make it some day.
Additionally, once you get into the second round and beyond, the hit rate for draftees overall basically falls off a cliff. Just look at the draft positions for the Top 100 MLB prospects who were drafted; most of them were first rounders.