Roast

haha. Oh, Z.

So, I have been on a Hardball Times binge the past couple days and I found these articles pretty interesting. Basically Peter Jensen, one of their writers, took hit locations from MLB Gameday and created a fielding metric from them. There are all kinds of potential problems with the accuracy that he points out - and tries to adjust for - but nevertheless, it's pretty interesting to look at. There are two articles out so far with a third one coming next week. The first article is just info about the data he collected, the second article goes into how he actually created the metric, and the article coming out next week is apparently going to have a listing of the top players at each position (using BZR) last year. Just thought I'd share: First Article Second Article Enjoy.

I disagree. While the cliche about not getting extra runs for hitting the ball further is true, that's not the point. The point is that when you get the ball over the fence by that short of a margin, any minute thing that would have happened differently on that play could have made it a long fly-out instead of a homer. And when you do it as many times as Quentin did, it sets up the potential to see a significant drop off in homers this year if a few things don't go his way (more days of wind blowing in, for example). For reference, I took a peak at 07's list of "just enough" HR leaders and compared them to their stats from 08. The below list is as follows: Player - 07 Homers(total) - 07 Just Enough homers - 08 Homers (total) - Change from 07-08. Alex Rodriguez: 54/16/35/-19 **20 less games in 08** Jim Thome: 35/16/34/-1 **19 More Games in 08** Brandon Phillips: 30/14/21/-9 Jack Cust: 26/14/33/+7 **24 more games in 08** Matt Holiday: 36/13/25/-11 **19 less games in 08** Vlad Guerrero: 27/13/27/0 Ryan Howard: 47/13/48/+1 **18 more games in 08** That's the top seven guys on the list, and because of the wide fluctuation of games played between 07 and 08 it's hard to get a good grip on things. It'd probably be better to use a HR/PA type metric to tell how much their HR's were truly effected from one year to another. That said, I still think it can be telling - certainly not as much as the 'lucky' HR category, but interesting to look at none the less. On a cubs-related side note, Lee and Ramirez were both towards the top of the list of just enough's in 07 with 11 and 10 respectively. In 08 Lee lost 2 HR from his 07 total and Ramirez gained one.

mine work just fine. thanks for the reminder, as an aside. is it possible to change print-at-home to will call and simply drive down there today and pick the tickets up? anyone know? Yes, just call in and have your tickets changed to will call or ticket window pickup or whatever. I did that for some tickets last year.

Wind would be one factor in the lucky HR's, but it also seems that humidity/air density is taken account for possibly. As for the just enough's he's talking ten feet above the top of the wall OR a ball that lands closer to the wall than the wall is tall. I.e. it lands three feet beyond the wall but it's a 10 foot wall. i'm pretty sure all home runs that were hit off howry were counted as lucky as well :-)) Yeah, and DeRosa did have the most in MLB (as i pointed out in my first post) with nine.

This is the list I put together a little while back. It's not in wiki format and may not be what you're looking for, but anyway; here it is: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=52309&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&hilit=Stats

Wind would be one factor in the lucky HR's, but it also seems that humidity/air density is taken account for possibly. As for the just enough's he's talking ten feet above the top of the wall OR a ball that lands closer to the wall than the wall is tall. I.e. it lands three feet beyond the wall but it's a 10 foot wall.

Today I was reading a totally unrelated article over at the Hardball Times about a possible new defensive metric one of their writers is working on, and it linked to hittracker.org. I’ve seen the site before, but haven’t visited in quite some time. Anyway, the point is, glancing at the front page I noticed something kind of interesting: Carlos Quentin tied for second in the American League on the lists of both “just enough” home runs and “lucky” home runs. In 2008 Carlos Quentin hit 36 homers; hittracker.org listed him with 12 “just enough” homers and 5 “lucky” home runs. For clarification, here are the definitions of “just enough” and “lucky” home runs: Obviously, under these definitions the two categories could very possibly (and probably did) overlap partially or possibly even entirely. With that in mind, it’s possible that, given slightly different conditions, Quentin could have lost as many as seventeen of his homers last year. Now, certainly, every player (except apparently Adam Dunn; who averages 412 feet on his HRs) is going to have a few every year that barely make it over the fence – but the point is I just found it interesting that he appeared so high on both lists. Anyway, this isn’t by any means a highly scientific or statistical break down of why Quentin is going to drop off next year. Just something I found interesting. Obviously he just had a breakout year last year, but with somewhere between 12-17 of his homers just barely going over the fence, I wonder if we’ll see a significant drop off in his long balls next year. *Interesting note: DeRosa led the Majors in “lucky” homers last year with 9 (of his 21)

And just scored on a Gregor Blanco triple.

How they hell are they playing the puerto rico/netherlands game on espn but not the USA game. Stupid MLB Network and Stupid dorm not getting it. We have NFL Network. Jerks.

That or provide motivation for him to go on a tear and not give up a single hit all season while striking out every batter he faces on 3 pitches. I'm praying for that one.

Sweet jesus, Venezuela is hitting everything out of the park now. 4 HR's in the 5th inning so far. 9-0

Back to back Hrs by Abreu and Cabrera and Venezuela is up 6-0 now. Italy's toast.

Venezuela is up 4-0 over Italy in the 5th. The rematch of the Netherlands and the Dom Republic is set to get underway any time now.

Rotoworld had this on the appearance:

Nice to see a patient bat at the top of the order. I like it. I'm predicting a big season from Fuku (at least, in comparison to last year)

I like it lots. Way to go, Tim.

I attribute it to AZ in spring Why? He slugged .514 last year with 9 HR and 22 doubles. This power isn't a new thing.

Wow, US is tearing it up. To quote a great song: AMERICA...#### YEA!

I'd take a shot at him as a backup. Can't imagine he'd be much worse than Bako.

I would. Only because Columbia dorms - despite being in the heart of chicago - seem to be ignorant to the existence of CSN. Which is annoying. I vote all home games are on WGN and all Road games are on WGN/Ch.26/ESPN/Fox :-D

Gabor's Gang is gonna kick some tail. Or not. Either way.

I wouldn't take Arod second even if he was healthy Not a fan of guys who put up big numbers? Come on. You can take a couple other guys at 2 that have roughly the same chance of matching or exceeding the value of a healthy ARod. Almost anyone drafted in the first round will put up big numbers (barring injury, complete collapse, etc). Who you take with the 2nd pick would primarily be driven by your draft strategy. I don't know, if there is still a guy like Arod left in the second round (barring it being like a 10 player league) I would most definitely take him, especially if he's healthy. Even on a 'down' year for him (like last year) he still put up 35HR and 100+RBI with a great OBP.

CT?

I wouldn't take Arod second even if he was healthy Not a fan of guys who put up big numbers?