They maxed out their 2019 budget in 2018 when Yu was still available late in the winter and was cheaper than they expected and knew they’d have a need for a starter so they went for it. At least that’s the party line, but it seems fairly plausible. I think even with the fickle nature of relievers they didn’t anticipate Carl and Strop being completely worthless, Morrow they should have signed and then assumed we’d get nothing from him due to his injury history. In terms of OF, in the 17-18 offseason they were probably expecting Schwarber to be more like 2nd half 17 Schwarber and possibly improve, Happ to improve to a solid regular etc. They took some risks but ultimately felt they filled all their holes for the next 2 years. That’s not to say there weren’t glaring holes in that logic but I’m guessing that was their thinking if they did actually have a payroll restriction. Cubs took a lot of risks and most of them blew up in their face For me, the Chatwood and Morrow signings are just inexcusably stupid. Darvish makes total sense, and it sucks the first season+ went like it did, but that move makes sense. Shelling out that much for those two mopes if there's ANY inkling that money might be getting harder to come by? Get the horsefeathers out of here. That’s a great point because that reminded me of my reaction of the signing which was basically that it was an overpay but it means we have enough money to take risks like that. I really don’t mind the Morrow signing. Even if he was risky I don’t think we could have expected him to have one injury that kept him out for 75% of his contract. But even in the event of injury I felt the Cubs had a deep bullpen that could handle an injury. Cishek, Carl, Strop, Monty, Justin wilson, Duensing who was actually decent the year before. Didn’t expect all of them besides Cishek to suck and then Cishek to eventually get overworked and also suck. But on the upside, if he can stay healthy you get an elite caliber closer at a discount