Wish there was a scenario generator out there that could do the math. But I think if the US wins their 2 remaining home games, they likely won't need a result at Mexico and Costa Rica. Right now: 1. Canada whatever 2. USA 18, +6 3. Mexico 18, +5 4. Panama 17 +2 5. Costa Rica 13 +0 Lets say USA loses the road matches and wins the home matches. That puts US at 24 points. To match that: Mexico needs 6 points from: @ Panama, vs. US, @ Honduras, vs. El Salvador. Probably pretty likely to get 6 points from those games. Panama needs 7 points from: @ Mexico, vs. Honduras, vs. Canada (again assuming the USMNT beats Panama at home) Costa Rica needs 11 points from: @Jamaica, vs. Canada, @ El Salvador, vs. USMNT Getting 6 points from the home matches is easier said than done but IF we can accomplish that, both Panama and Costa Rica need results in all their remaining matches to pass the US. None of this is groundbreaking and is why we are still at 89% chance to advance, but it feels better typing it all out. Now if the USA doesn't get 3 points in Wednesday, we have the right to fully panic.