UMFan83

Ugh was really hoping at least 1 of the Packers or Lions would lose with both on the road against the number 1 seed in each conference but so far it’s not going the Bears way plus the 49ers winning.

There’s you and me in a nutshell, I frame something from a “if everything goes wrong” perspective and you frame it from a “if everything goes right” 😂

If the Bears beat the 49ers, the 49ers need to win out and Bears lose out to make the playoffs over us. If the Bears beat the Lions, the Lions would need to win out and the Bears lose out to pass the Bears.

Pretty sure if the Rams beat the Lions this week (assuming this holds) there’s like a 98% chance that the Bears will be AT WORST in a “win and in” game against the Lions in week 17 no matter what else happens. Id have to work out scenarios where the Panthers/Bucs loser somehow gets into a 3+ team tiebreaker for the 7 seed, or if the Rams/Seahawks fall back down. But it’s overwhelmingly likely that it’s really 4 teams fighting for 3 playoff spots (WC 2+3 and the NFCN)

The man completely torched his life in a matter of 48 hours. He fired the girl he was sleeping with after he stalked her when she broke up with him, causing her to report their relationship to the university, causing him to be fired with cause and losing ~$15m, causing him to crash out and break into her house and threaten her and himself with knives. 48 hours prior he was the head coach at Michigan, due millions of dollars, at least 1 more year of job security. By the end he was out of job as the HC of a blue blood program he was somewhat underqualfied for, blew up his family and is now an alleged felon. What a crash out.

Since I was in my early 20s, we made it a point to tailgate all day from like 9am on. By 2pm the keg we brought completely froze over. Never had that happen before or since.

I read somewhere the putting cardboard under your feet would help too so your shoes aren't on cold concrete for 3 hours. But I just read that Soldier Field recent banned bringing in cardboard (specifically listed in reference to cold weather) which seems silly.

yep, I went to that Bears Falcons game in 2005, it was like 3 degrees. Wore 3 pairs of socks along with a ridiculous amount of clothing to stay warm. Entire body was fine except feet, was a miserable experience. Luckily I had seats in the United Club so I could go inside and warm up frequently and still mostly see the game.

I haven’t been visiting the board a ton lately. I’m not sure if this means I should visit more or less.

This is one scandal too far for me. Clean it up and get your horsefeathers together Michigan. Also this absolutely without a doubt proves that there is an inverse relationship between Michigan football and Michigan basketball success.

Hey once all those rooftops are completed the Ricketts might finally have enough to not break even

I think you're underselling things a bit, but I realize based on your previous posts that it comes from a place of "the Bears are not really that good" If the Bears lose, at worst they are tied for a playoff spot (though currently losing the tiebreaker), 1 GB SF with a chance to win that tiebreaker with a H2H win, and have a chance to claw back to 0.5 games of the North with a win the next week (though I'd agree the odds become very slim with a loss this week). The fact that we play all 3 teams we are are competing for a playoff spot with in the final 4 games with 3 of our last 4 at home while only SF has what I'd consider an easyish schedule gives us some wiggle room especially when playing an AFC opponent this week. But again, if you don't think the Bears are that good and losing would put them in a position to have to win 2 of 3 against teams you believe are significantly better than the Bears, I can see where what you said makes sense.

Damn I thought you were just kidding around but after I saw this I do think they are trying to shame him

Doing some more math on why 2-2 gives us overwhelming odds to make the playoffs. 1) Like I mentioned before, 4 teams fighting for 3 PO spots (GB, DET, SF, CHI for NFC North and 2 WC spots) 2) Bears play all 3 of those teams, meaning that if they go 2-2 they have beaten at least one of them 3) If the Bears beat CLE and DET, the Lions would have won win their 3 remaining games (@ LAR, PIT, @ MIN) to tie the Bears, and it comes down to tiebreakers 4) If the Bears beat CLE and SF, the Bears would own the H2H tiebreaker over SF, meaning SF would have to win its 3 remaining games (TEN, @ IND, SEA) to pass the Bears. Easier schedule but still 5) If the Bears beat CLE and GB, there's a little more doubt since they lose the H2H to SF and DET, meaning SF could go 1-2 and pass the Bears, the Lions 2-1 and pass the Bears and the Packers 2-1 to pass the Bears. But thats still 3 things that have to happen against the Bears 6) If the Bears lose to CLE and beat 2 of the other 3 teams, they're not locks but they've put themselves in a position where either DET and SF need to win out, or one needs to win out and the Packers need to go 2-1 to be left out. There are plenty of other scenarios to consider like 3 or 4 team tiebreakers, a slide by the Seahawks or Rams bringing them into the mix (though I think we established last week that we cannot tie the Seahawks and Rams without also winning the tiebreaker over both), but for 2 team tiebreakers thats how it looks.

Honestly I don't think it's a big deal. They had 2 TOs and were going to be goal to go if they got 3 yards on that 4th down play with about 30 seconds left. Maybe 1 TO if they're tackled in bounds. Let's say they get out of bounds though because the play they called was a boot towards the sidelines. His options were: 1) Caleb runs out of bounds for a 1st, 2) Caleb throws a TD to Kmet, 3) Caleb somehow sees DJ leaking open and hits them for either a TD or stopped inside the 5 yard line. Option 1 allows the Bears to do everything except maybe run 4 straight times, but if they're at the 10 yard line they probably aren't calling 4 runs. But even 4 straight runs is possible: 1st run - TO, 2nd run - TO, 3rd run - clock is under 20 seconds and running but they've likely drawn up their 4th down play in the previous TO. Option 2 gives the Packers the ball back either tied or down 1 (Ben said they were going for 2 if they scored so likely the latter) with 25 seconds left and I believe 3 TOs for the Packers. The way Love can get chunk yards with 50/50 balls at an elite level suggests that 25 seconds is the minimum time to leave the Packers to make the clock a factor in whether they get into FG range. Option 3 gives the Bears a 1st and goal inside the 5 and likely 1 TO. This is the most limiting option but even then they have enough time to run multiple times if they choose to. Maybe even 3 times if the 1st or 2nd down play gets them inside the 1 (aka run on 3rd down, stopped short, rush to the line and try a sneak). The biggest factor to me is that, like I mentioned, Love is elite at getting chunk plays downfield. It takes maybe 2 of those plays to get into FG range. Do you really want to leave him over a minute and 3 TOs to basically have everything available to them? Edit: Now that I think about it, the Packers called a TO right before 4th down so I guess, they had 2 TOs left. My bad

I think its been said before that a major focus for Ben this year is having Caleb learn the offense and run it the way he wants it run. Also, he probably wants to optimize how to use Caleb properly. Things like footwork and mechanics are a work in progress. You can see how crappy his footwork is when you watch him throw errant passes. It needs to be worked on and probably should have always expected some issues with Ben wanting Caleb to primarily drop back from under center for the first time in his career. I don't see Caleb staring down open receivers most of the time. I don't see him unwilling or unable to make progressions. I don't see him waiting too long to throw a pass because the WR isn't open yet (aka throwing with anticipation). He's not always making the right read, but he is way more often than his detractors are giving him credit for. He's got some stuff to work on but IMO the mental side of being a franchise QB is coming along nicely and is by far the more important thing for Caleb to show this year. More importantly, he has an offensive guru that understands Calebs strengths as a QB and is building an offense to maximize those strengths. He might not ever have 70% completion percentage but I think when your QB is often breaking the pocket and throwing on the run, it's going to be trading off completion percentage for chunky plays downfield.

Meh, they just lost at home to the worst team in the NFL. You are right, they do have a good defense, though banged up I believe. They can be run on too. Sanders looked capable yesterday but again you have to consider the competition. I think they also lost their starting C for the season yesterday. They have some parts you worry about but as a whole I don't think the Bears should be terribly threatened by playing the Browns at home.

Maybe...depends on who the 2 wins are against. We're in a unique situation where we play all 3 of the teams we're somewhat competing for a playoff spot with in the last 4 games. We're currently 0.5 GB one of them, tied with another, and a game ahead of the 3rd team. FWIW not sure how accurate this site is but, it gives the following playoff odds based on the number of remaining Bears wins: 0-4: 0% 1-3: 29% 2-2: 91% 3-1: 99.9% 4-0: 100% No way they can make it at 9-8 at this point since they'd be be giving 10th wins to the Packers and 49ers and 9th win and the tiebreaker to the Lions.

The idea in my mind was always splitting with GB would allow us to control our North destiny (provided they win in Cleveland or GB loses next week). The Chicago game was always going to be the more likely game to win. We still control our destiny for everything but the bye. We're in fine shape, but still need 2 more wins to feel any sort of safety about our playoff destiny. Also for those worried about missing the playoffs altogether, the Lions schedule is no cakewalk. 3 of their last 4 on the road: @LAR (if the Bears win next week, that result is positive for us regardless), vs. PIT (clinging to the playoffs), @ MIN (still a strong D and looked feisty today) and @ the Bears. If the Bears only win 1 of their next 3, there's still a decent chance that the last game against Detroit is a win and in scenario. The Panthers/Bucs divisional loser are the only other teams really in the mix at 7-6 but they'd need a miracle to be alive for a wild card come Week 18 at this point. So at this point it's 6 teams for 5 spots. The Rams and Seahawks seem fairly safe, so maybe more like 4 teams for 3 spots (GB, SF, CHI, DET). Bears still have a chance to win the tiebreaker over the 49ers. I'm not sure if they can win the tiebreaker over the Lions at this point. H2H: 0-1 (with 1 to play) Div: Both teams 1-3 Common opponents: Both teams 6-4 The Bears would have to go 2-1, with their loss to the 49ers with the Lions going 2-1 with their loss to the Rams in order to still be tied in divisional record and common opponents. But if that happens, the Lions are 1 GB the Bears heading into Week 18, meaning they'd have to beat the Bears to tie them, thus winning the H2H. Better to assume that the Bears need to finish ahead of the Lions (or beat the 49ers and tie with them) Sorry I turned this into a rambling, just working out the scenarios in my head as I type it out.

They ran the first play, IIRC Caleb missed an open receiver on 2nd down leading to a 3rd and medium, a throw is understandable. On the second drive, he completed a nice pass to Loveland but had had it ripped away leading to 2nd and 10. He then missed an open receiver on a medium route, leading to 3rd and long. I think it was more game script than anything else. They were pretty run heavy much of the rest of the game.

What are the odds that we’re looking at Week 18 SNF against the Lions for a playoff spot?

Caleb continues to be so perplexing. He can go from looking nearly unplayable to making elite play after elite play in an instant. His talent is so tantalizing and his issues seem fixable but at the same time we have yet to see him play a truly elite game from start to finish outside of maybe Dallas this year and Jacksonville last year.

I have a feeling this might be the end of P4 conference championship games, or at least them counting in the playoff rankings. If the ACC misses out, Bama misses out, BYU misses out, etc because of conference championship game losses its going to cause a lot of discussion.

The sad thing is, they were one of the premier brands in professional sports and they completely squandered it. Even if they get good again we are like 3 generations removed from Jordan and most people under 40 have no recollection of him on the Bulls.

Otherwise known as a ‘source’? 😂