Yes. This. If we had a good O-Line, a solid proven RB, and at least one dependable WR, it makes sense to try the high risk guy. If you're the Bears, and you have none of these things but a good defense and presumably a good special teams, it makes a lot of sense to use the low risk guy. Actually, if you have a good line and solid running game then a safer QB is probably good enough to take you a long way. A team that is all defense and special teams, then if you have any hope of going far, you are going to need a QB who can make some plays. I see your point, but I'd still really have the safer QB with a really good defense. If the defense plays like it did in 2005, I don't want a QB that will throw a lot of INTs that leads to extra drives for the defense and eventually wears them out. Also I don't want a QB who is going to throw an INT in the red zone right after the D makes a big play to get a turnover.