Billy Beane was mocked when he stated that the MLB playoffs are essentially a crapshoot. But the more I think about it, the more I wonder if this is true. With the success of Wild Card teams in baseball since their inception, and the number of 100 win teams this decade that have faltered out in the Division Series, you have to wonder if it really is the hottest team that takes it all. Here are some interesting examples: 2007: The Rockies, mired around .500 in early September, go on an amazing run to streak into the playoffs, and through the National League to the World Series 2006: Cardinals almost blow a large division lead and come into the playoffs an afterthought of an 83 win team, then get red hot, receive stellar performances from unlikely sources and win the World Series. Meanwhile, the Tigers, who held a huge divisional lead into September, collapse and lose the division on the last day and taking the Wild Card. They then get hot and go 7-1 through the playoffs on the way to the World Series. 2005: White Sox start out the season red hot, build up a 12 game division lead and appear coasting to the playoffs. All the sudden in August, they start to trip up, and the Tribe gets hot. Suddenly its late September and the White Sox hold a 1.5 game lead. They eventually get hot, win their last 5-6 games, win the division and go 11-1 en route to winning the World Series. Meanwhile the Astros suck almost all season, are complete afterthoughts, but get hot and beat a 100 win Cardinal team in the NLCS to get to the World Series 2003: The Braves and Giants both win over 100 games and seem destined to meet in the NLCS. However the Cubs shut down the Braves league leading offense, and the Marlins handle the Giants and meet in the NLCS 2002: A's win over 100 games and get cold and lose in the first round etc etc etc. Basically, I've come to the mindset that winning 95-100 games is nice, but all that matters is getting into the playoffs and getting there hot. Sure there are some factors that increase your odds of succeeding in October (if they allowed the Nats to participate in the playoffs, I don't care how hot they were they aren't doing anything), pitching certainly helps, having good patience helps, etc. but overall I can't help but feel like whichever team is hotter is going to succeed in October. Thoughts?