Here are reasons why the Bulls should have no trouble getting over 46.5 wins: -Best player is going to turn (i think) 22 during the season and clearly still has room to improve -Thibs theoretically should be a much better tactician than VDN, but I have a hard time thinking coaching makes much of a different. -They won 41 games last year and signed one of the top 3-4 PFs in the league, who has similar numbers PER and efficiency wise to players like Bosh and Amare. Should fit in well with a guard who shoots a lot and a Center who can play help defense to minimize his own defensive efficiencies -They had absolutely no one who could shoot a 3 last year. And while only getting Kyle Korver is not exactly filling that need, just having at least one dominant 3 point shooter should help the team when he's on the floor. Also Deng has been hitting 3's like crazy in the preseason. If you watched Deng closely, he came into the league shooting 3s, Skiles told him to stop shooting them in order to get the rest of his game going, and for 3-4 years he barely shot them before last year shooting them at a respectable clip. -They have pieces to make a move in season if one arises. Noah is probably no longer considered a great piece since he signed his extension, but other than Boozer, the guys they signed in the offseason all have reasonable contracts, most of them 2 years with an option. -Thibs has been able to positively affect the defense of every team he's been on. And the Bulls were an above average defensive team last year. -They won 41 games last year despite a 10-17 start plagued with Rose hobbling around with 1.5 ankles, and also despite a 10 game losing streak in march where Rose (4 games i think),Deng (6 games) and Noah (10 games) all missed significant time. So the record last year is probably not indicative of the type of team they were at the end of last year. Reasons they might fall below the mark: -There are pretty good injury concerns on the team. Noah and Gibson have that stupid injury that never fully heals and could reappear somewhere down the road. Boozer is already hurt and has been oft injured his career. Brewer is already banged up, Kurt Thomas is old and easily banged up, etc. Even Rose has dealt with minor injuries his first couple of years. Leads me to my next point -As good as they'll tell you the Bulls improved in the offseason, this team still lives and dies with Rose. If Rose gets hurt, even with Boozer in there to weather the storm, the Bulls are done. Boozer is a solid scorer but my impression of him is that he needs a playmaker to get him the ball to be most effective. Without Rose in there, who is your playmaker? Deng? Watson? Brewer? Bogans? Korver? There is none. Deng is a nice 3rd option for a team, Noah is a great energy guy, Watson will be a useful backup guard, but this team only works if Rose is in place. -Thibadeau for all his praises as an X and O guy, has never been the head coach of a bball team. Sure he might be able to teach defense or diagram the perfect play, but how is he going to handle it when a player comes to him complaining of PT. How is he going to keep his team going on the 4th night of a 4 in 5 after blowing a 10 point 4th quarter lead the night before. Like I said earlier, I don't see coaching having a ton of effect on W-L, but I'll add an EXCEPT when the coach doesnt have the trust of his team. -Addressed earlier but there are a lack of guys who can create their own shots. Rose can, Boozer can to an extent, Deng and Watson a bit, havent seen enough of Brewer and Bogans but maybe a little. Overall, they just don't have many pure scorers on the team. Can they get around this? -They will be a good defensive team but they lost a bit of their talent with Hinrich leaving, and 30 mins of Gibson being replaced with 30 minutes of Boozer -The top half of the East is pretty good. They will play teams like the Celtics, Heat, Magic, Hawks, Bucks 3-4 times each this year. -The big one is the start to the season. This isn't anything new, but the Bulls have a very very tough schedule to start the year, as someone above pointed out. This year seems to be even more formidable than past years. Now your looking at a young team, with a new coach, trying to work in 7 new players from last year, and your best new player is out a month and you start the season with an extremely tough schedule. Most years the Bulls have rebounded from their slow starts. will this team be able to? Should be interesting. I have them at about 48 wins. Don't go on RealGM, the Bulls board has plenty of posters that get pissed if you don't predict the Bulls to have more than 50 wins.