Why do you assume Detroit gets the 5 seed? Have you seen their schedule from here on out? I dunno, I forgot to include them to be honest. It is possibly that they could finish 2-4 or so, which would likely put the Bears ahead of them. Unfortunately, the tiebreaker is murky at best, it doesn't look horrible for the Bears, but its not great either. Considering the Bears will almost surely lose to GB, if we beat Minnesota, we will finish the division 3-3. Detroit is 2-1 with 2 games left against the Packers and one against the Vikings. However, one of the Packers games is week 17. If Detroit and the Bears tie in division record, it goes to record in common games. The 2 non common games between the 2 teams is SF (L) and DAL (W) for the Lions and SEA (?) and PHI (W) for the Bears. This means that if they tie at lets say 10-6, the Lions would win the tiebreaker by having a 9-5 record in common games, while the Bears would have an 8-6, assuming they beat Seattle. If it does get to conference record, it looks good for the Bears. Bears currently lead 6-3 to 5-3, with the Bears having 3 conference games left (Sea, @GB, @ Min), Lions with 4 left (GB, @NO, MIN, @ GB). It's gonna be hard for Detroit to go even 2-2 in those 4 games, while the Bears have a good shot at going 2-1. If that holds, we get the tiebreaker. If we tie on that, we go to strength of victory, which I don't feel like figuring out.