What a weird statement. I know there are a few moving pieces here that would affect "win probability" (contract AAV/length and follow up moves being 2 big ones) but seems strange to suggest they don't already have a pretty good idea of what adding him would bring to the team, while potentially subtracting Nico, playing Shaw at 2B, adding a pitcher, etc. I would hope they have a giant computer that shoots projections for all these scenarios within seconds and that they did their initial due diligence weeks if not months ago.