JudasIscariotTheBird

Lol, I’ve never visited either of those sites, but sure. Uhhhh lol viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3195&p=383940&hilit=Derwood#p383933

Ohio State is in unless they get absolutely crushed and even then maybe they are. The discussion that's interesting if Wisconsin wins, especially by a decent margin, is Wisconsin vs Oklahoma. I don’t think Wisconsin would get in over OSU. After all OSU did beat them earlier this year, has played a harder schedule (I think), lost one less game, didn’t lose to Illinois, and overall has played significantly better with both metrics and the eye test. I do think they’d have a shot to finish over Oklahoma although that would cause quite the drama to have a 2 loss conference champion over a 1 loss. But Oklahoma has not looked all that impressive from what I’ve seen this season and I don’t think they are one of the 4 best teams this year Yeah, all clearly true, which is why I was puzzled by the 538 odds.

So, if Wisconsin manages to win this game, do they get in over OSU? 538 has the Badgers as a slight favorite to do that, which seems mildly weird to me.

So if Wisconsin manages to win this game, do they get in? Over Ohio St.? Five thirty eight has it as essentially a coin flip (assuming a Badger win, which is obviously a lot). Edit: whoops.

The giveaway in this case was "wanting to be close to New Jersey."

I can understand why a team like this could have more variance, but why would it be any more likely to underperform Pythag than overpreform? They go hand in hand. Pythagorean assumes that variance is noise and eventually levels out, if it's a feature/bug of your team design, then you're more likely to underperform it. To put a name to the variance, a team that sacrifices outfield defense for some extra offense will be more likely to see variance in low scoring games where everyone's hitting poorly, or maybe when the wind is blowing in and the offensive advantage is neutralized and the defensive disadvantage magnified. We're talking in generalities here, but that's how it can manifest. I don’t think that’s right. Variance goes both ways. If it trends toward underperformance, that isn’t variance. Thus, the modeling... Edit: Are you saying this kind of line up would be more likely to win big and lose small, and thus pythag is a bad way to measure win prob? I half agree if that is what you are saying. I’m not convinced that kind of team would, in fact, be more likely to have that happen than the exact opposite asymmetry.

I can imagine in my head that having three poor-range defenders in the OF can cause cascading defensive problems, but isn’t it also true that having a lot of high OBP guys in the same line up has a similar, positive cascading effect for runs scored? Do we still have a heavily GB-producing pitching staff? Can we trust Theo to have models of this kind of stuff? You can definitely model it, and to a certain degree (in the value sense) a run is a run. However, we've seen the consequences of a team that has imbalances in building the roster this way, you get uneven performances, underperform pythag, etc. Given the outward messaging being around balance when it comes to the offense, I'd be surprised if they sought out an extreme in the form of 3 sketchy defensive OF being starters. I can understand why a team like this could have more variance, but why would it be any more likely to underperform Pythag than overpreform?

For me it's less about Nick's defense, which I think is below average but ultimately fine, and more the cumulative effect on the outfield. Schwarber in left, Heyward in center, and Nick in right are each individually okay, but cumulatively it could lead to some real problems. Not to mention Happ as the primary backup. Yup. The sum of the parts could be quite ugly, I think you could still make a Schwarbs/Heyward/Nick OF work to the point of it not killing you but we’d have to bring in a Billy Hamilton type to throw in to CF like every game we got a lead in the 6/7 innings and we’d also have to get back to shifting a lot and be good at it. There’s also the part where Nick very well may take up almost all the available money we have to spend this offseason and there’s plenty more holes to fill. It was discussed yesterday, but Souza could be a nice alternative to Nick if he’s healthy and he’s probably only going to cost $3-6 mil for 1 year to re-establish his value. I can imagine in my head that having three poor-range defenders in the OF can cause cascading defensive problems, but isn’t it also true that having a lot of high OBP guys in the same line up has a similar, positive cascading effect for runs scored? Do we still have a heavily GB-producing pitching staff? Can we trust Theo to have models of this kind of stuff?

I'm on a University of Illinois message board - cleverly disguising myself by using the exact same user name - and there's one guy who is talking about how great it is that Kendrick Nunn (former U of I basketball player, kicked off the team after pleading guilty to domestic battery) is getting a shot in the NBA, while simultaneously saying in a different thread that Kaepernick should never be in the NFL again. Sample size of one I know, but those people are out there. Unless I am mistaken, Derwood is saying ALL Nunn/Addi supporters are also Kaep haters. I claim there are too many straight-ticket racists for that to be true.

If Russell wasn't a person of color, you would have managed to not be wildly wrong.

Nah, just having trouble getting excited about other teams' cast offs. If you're excited about an off season that may include trading our star third baseman and signing some reclamation projects, go nuts No one asked you to. No one is trying to say Kevin Gausman is better than signing Gerrit Cole, we don’t need a reverse every time the transaction forum discusses moves that take into account likely reality. We especially don’t need the implication that people are suckers for discussing the news of the day.

You are one weird dude https://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/43832/really-bro-pokemon-addison-russell-is-building-baseballs-most-unusual-autograph-collection (Not that you are wrong)

https://twitter.com/Henry____Weiss/status/1201651373357572096

They were under a 40-man crunch I'm not very up to spec on who the A's have on their roster, but I'm stunned that Cotton wasn't worth a spot anymore. It just makes me think he's damaged goods to a higher degree than we want to admit.

Whoa. ...but why were the A's willing to ditch him?

I feel like this has happened before the, like within the last 5 or 6 years. It's more like a week before, right? i still remember staying up all night on a school night to watch the horsefeathering 2000 cubs play in japan (either i was too excited or i didn't trust myself to wake up at 4 am or whatever) on two straight nights i think the horsefeathering agbayani game ended while i was in homeroom and was listening on the radio horsefeather agbayani, and welcome

[bbvideo=560,315] [/bbvideo]

...yeah, but what about when he hits at Busch?

Yeah...Ive got 8 years or so of mid-high stakes poker experience and that right there is the most obvious tell that Ive ever seen. We'll have to talk shop sometime.

https://twitter.com/TakeItEasyTocci/status/1195471449709928448

Damn. Yelich going full Braun up in here! Let's see if I can get my first twitter ban!

It's already been posted to the Dodgers' Reddit page: Lots of interesting thoughts in there. I wish I knew Japanese. That was a good read.

I preferred this one. Just a matter of taste I suppose: https://twitter.com/EazyEJ_/status/1194649365320781829