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Wilson A2000

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Everything posted by Wilson A2000

  1. Wilson A2000
    This is an honest question, but why is fWAR a better indication of WAR than bWAR? bWAR has Heyward and Harper averaging the same amount of wins the last 6 years. fWAR rates Harper better. 1. It doesn't matter! Using Jason Heyward's 2013-2015(which is like 75% of that 6 year span WAR) as anything representative of what Heyward is going to do in 2019 and beyond is crazy. That ship has sailed, Heyward is not that player any more, we have 3 years and 2000ish plate appearances as proof. 2. bWAR is simply less accurate. For pitchers it can be a worthy counterpart to fWAR because it is more descriptive while fWAR is more predictive(e.g. ERA v. FIP), but for hitters there's no reason to use anything you see on BR outside of using the DRS defensive values for comparison/validation to what UZR is saying. I’m not arguing that Heyward will play up to his best years. I’m fearful that the last three years of Harper are more representative of his future than his MVP year. We’re 1,500 ABs from Harper MVP season he hasn’t been nearly that type of player since.
  2. Wilson A2000
    This is an honest question, but why is fWAR a better indication of WAR than bWAR? bWAR has Heyward and Harper averaging the same amount of wins the last 6 years. fWAR rates Harper better.
  3. Wilson A2000
    Is Heyward as great as Harper? The numbers say both players bring you the same wins. Pay for expected performance, sure. But why should we expect Harper to be significantly better than he has been? If the Cubs can afford to overspend and keep their great young core, great. But are the Cubs getting an upgrade in RF. You're literally propping Heyward up with seasons he's 3 years removed from. You evidently think he's reverting back to pre 2016 Heyward? Is Harper the last two years or his MVP year? Even this year Heyward had a better season.
  4. Wilson A2000
    You can ignore that comment if you want to ignore Harper’s production. You are your stats.
  5. Wilson A2000
    You might want to keep all those guys because their replacements wont be as good. But you won’t because you are overpaying for a RF’s production because he has good hair or something. That's gonna get jumped on enough, so I'm going to try and respond from a baseball standpoint..... Willy isn't a FA until he's 30 or so. You probably don't want to give a C a long term deal at that point. Rizzo will be older too. And 1B isn't hard to find production at, although my guess is they'll figure out a way to keep him. And Javy can be kept, if he's still producing. The Cubs have plenty of money and have 3-4 years to find some cheap guys at whatever spot they develop them at. They can certainly afford Bryce right now. And if you're insinuating he's not great, then I've got nothing to respond with, other than you're wrong. And you're getting him in his prime. Is Heyward as great as Harper? The numbers say both players bring you the same wins. Pay for expected performance, sure. But why should we expect Harper to be significantly better than he has been? If the Cubs can afford to overspend and keep their great young core, great. But are the Cubs getting an upgrade in RF.
  6. Wilson A2000
    You might want to keep all those guys because their replacements wont be as good. But you won’t because you are overpaying for a RF’s production because he has good hair or something.
  7. Wilson A2000
    The Cubs have budgets. Aren’t going to be able to re-sign KB, Baez, Rizzo, and Contreras when you are significantly overpaying for a RF that you already have.
  8. Wilson A2000
    What if I said that you could have a Bryce Harper-type of player for the next 5 years who plays RF at half the Harper price and wouldn’t have to give up anything for him? And you wouldn’t have to get into a long, 10 year contract. That player is Jason Heyward. He essentially has the same WAR as Harper the last 6 years. Now if you want to platoon Heyward in CF or move him to LF and trade for Harper, fine. But Harper is terribly overrated. Heyward has been as good in RF as Harper and Heyward has been bad the last 3 years.
  9. Wilson A2000
    mitch had more talent and better coaching around him than cutler ever had I remember seeing Cutler make the most bone-headed throw and walk off the field all "who caaaaaaaaaaares". They gave him talent as well, he had Forte, Clarke, Marshall, Olsen, Jeffery. He never had Nagy as a coach, but he also never had this sieve of a defense and Devin Hester on ST. This argument that Cutler was shafted and Trubisky is all that matters with why the Bears aren't 6-0 is nuts. Absolutely NUTS. Cutler had some horrible talent around him some years and other years had great talent. But when he got hurt in 2013 and McCown put up incredible numbers with the same offensive talent around him, I knew Cutler was just as much to blame as anyone for his underachieving Bears career.
  10. Wilson A2000
    Somehow Floyd was better without Mack
  11. Wilson A2000
    Pull Mack already. Get him healthy.
  12. Wilson A2000
    It’s not the heat, but the humidity that is killing the Bears today I think
  13. Wilson A2000
    Maybe next year
  14. Wilson A2000
    Aint winning this one
  15. Wilson A2000
    It has to be. Every time I’ve seen him on camera he is walking awkwardly. It’s crazy how much worse the defense gets when he’s not dominating I But the Packers did it against a healthy Mack in the second half
  16. Wilson A2000
    I’m hoping it’s just his injured ankle, but if Mack is as good as everyone thinks it shouldn’t be this easy to neutralize him
  17. Wilson A2000
    Sims is really bad at football
  18. Wilson A2000
    Hub with some interesting stats. Patriots are 24-6 without Gronk. Patriots are 13-5 in the first quarter and 18-0 in the second over their last 18. They jump on you quickly.
  19. Wilson A2000
    Gronk didn’t make the trip to Chicago, but not ruled out yet
  20. Wilson A2000
    This is the game where the Bears get beat pretty good. 34-21 Patriots. Mack is ineffective. I hope I’m wrong.
  21. Wilson A2000
    The short passes were Green Bay’s method of beating the Bears week one. Other than tackling better, can the Bears do anything to adapt?
  22. Wilson A2000
    What happened to the Bears defense today? Hot and humid conditions wore them down? Not prepared coming off the bye? Looking forward to the Patriots and took the Dolphins for granted? Mack not being 100%
  23. Wilson A2000
    Not saying I agree with Nagy, but that had to be what he was thinking
  24. Wilson A2000
    He made some dumb decisions, but Nagy’s decisions were third on my list of dumbest things Bears did Who the hell settles for a 53 yarder? Wasn’t it going to be a 55 or 56 yarder before 3rd down? Howard was running well that drive and if they don’t complete the pass they are really outside Parkey’s range. My guess is that Nagy thought he could get 5-10 yards running and that was less risky than a throw.
  25. Wilson A2000
    He made some dumb decisions, but Nagy’s decisions were third on my list of dumbest things Bears did
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