Prepare for alot of words NSBB. I had to do it. I'm just going to go out on the limb and say the Cubs can spend, and they'll be able to spend with anyone. I have exactly 0 doubts about that, even if I don't know for sure. It's a much safer guess than them having to pinch pennies. There's plenty of reason for that, starting with Sanchez being the far inferior talent. First off...right off the bat you're completely in denial if you think that the Cubs don't have the need. Now: Hamels - 32 starts in every season since 2007 (31 in 2011 with a relief appearance, makes up for it by setting a career high in IP) Sanchez - 2 seasons with 32 starts, 0 with 200 IP, and 4 seasons full of injuries and surgeries Personally, when I take on a massive risk I like to do it on the best possible talent. That is the person/thing with the best combination of talent, health, and results. No. No. No no no no. NEIN. 1 - bWAR has Hamels at 5.5 and 6.6 WAR the past two years. Sanchez? 2.8 and 3.9. 2 - Hamels xFIP over that time? 3.28 and 3.02. Sanchez? 4.04 and 3.25. 3 – Sanchez’s full seasons happened to come in a dramatically different run environment, though I guess I can leave that alone because Hamels is pitching now too. 4 – OTOH, Hamels pitched in a much more hitter friendly park than what Sanchez pitched in during 2011 and 2010. I’ll have to find the link, but Pro Player was also a booster for players’ K rates so there’s even danger there for Sanchez. In 2011 alone Pro Player was 6% below the league average while the Philly park is somewhere in the 3-5 range, I forget. 5 – Hamels’ career K rate is almost a full K higher, his K:BB for his career is over a 1.5 times higher (3.81 to 2.15 IIRC), his xFIP is better, his SIERA is better, he’s produced more WAR from either bbref or Fangraphs, AND he’s bigger, healthier, and for the hell of it LH. 6 – The big age advantage? EXACTLY 2 months (12/27/83 vs 2/27/84). This isn’t slightly worse, it’s an asskicking. It’s a pretty bad ass kicking. See above, but again I go with the better talent all day err day. 1 – There is NOTHING wrong with being a mid-rotation starter, and those guys are generally not scrubs if they can do it for a while. 2 – He’s probably going to get severely overpaid. 3 – He is without a doubt NOT an elite talent. Not even close. A half decade+ ago when he was a top notch prospect who DIDN’T have all the arm troubles? Sure. Now? He’s a nice starter for the Marlins who is almost 30 and hasn’t pitched 200 innings in a major league season. That’s not elite. That’s closer to the mid-rotation scrub thing you think he’s not. 4 – The risk is great with Sanchez is all that needs to be said. It’s probably the most factual statement you’ve made so far (along with the commitment being less). The injuries don't just make him a better candidate to get injured again, but they also will likely lead to more sudden decline. A decade ago he wouldn't even have a career... 1 – He hasn’t proven shyte over the past couple of years other than he might be over his injuries and that he’s a solid pitcher when healthy (which most knew anyway). 2 – My primary interest in Hamels is that he’s bigger, better, far more experienced/well traveled, has a significantly better shot at remaining healthy through his deal, AND he’s an ACTUAL elite talent capable of fronting a championship caliber rotation. My seeming disdain for Sanchez comes from him being a far lesser talent to Hamels, and the difference in cost isn’t enough to throw out that it comes solely because of Sanchez’s ridiculously bad medical history. Do some research and point to me the #1s who fell completely off a cliff in their early 30's (I'll spot you Pedro, though I'm not completely sure of it)...Clemens, Schilling, RJ, Pettite, Mussina, Madddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Halladay, Lee...why am I drawing a blank here...[expletive] well the list is long with guys who did just fine in their early 30's despite that being ancient. It's a new age...30 is the new 27...and I'm not even sure I'm being all that crazy saying that. 3 – He is a significantly lesser pitcher when you take everything in. This isn’t even a contest, and doing the research made me not even want to consider Sanchez as a mid-rotation option. There’s too much there saying “stay the hell away.”