ZiPS must not have thought much of Cashner/Wells/Garza if they expected them to put a ~7.00 ERA in limited innings during their missed starts. I think the point is more that they have been so freaking bad that even having those guys miss no time doesn't make up the difference. Plus, a lot of other teams have missed a lot more, and better, players. The problem hasn't been the abilities of the players we lost, so much as the horrific lackthereof of their replacements. ETA: And I didn't even mention the concept of Tony Campana, starting CF.