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SouthSideRyan

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Everything posted by SouthSideRyan

  1. SouthSideRyan
    Why is Dusty's arm falling off? Failed Seppuku attempt
  2. SouthSideRyan
    That sure as [expletive] is something to get worked up over.
  3. SouthSideRyan
    Agreed, but doesn't his overall usefullness as 1-1.5 WAR player depend on who else is around him in the rotation? I don't see how he does much for this Cubs team as it is currently put together. He's a cheap arm who'll eat inning assuming he's healthy. That has value on any team. If we're punting 2012, this is the perfect opportunity to see if he can get back to at least league average. I don't have a problem with him being in the picture for 2012 or anything, I just have very little faith. Also, is he arb eligible now? Are we looking at $2-3m? Hard to track down comparables, but I see Gorzelanny at 800K and Marshall at 950K. Wells picked a very bad time(for him) to have a bad season. I'd say maybe 1.2M?
  4. SouthSideRyan
    Agreed, but doesn't his overall usefullness as 1-1.5 WAR player depend on who else is around him in the rotation? I don't see how he does much for this Cubs team as it is currently put together. He's a cheap arm who'll eat innings assuming he's healthy. That has value on any team. If we're punting 2012, this is the perfect opportunity to see if he can get back to at least league average.
  5. SouthSideRyan
    I read a Detroit guy saying that in his opinion, Rip vince cartered the pistons once dumars started running things into the ground. It would be hilarious (and scary for the league) if rip had a lot more gas than everyone thought. Well he has more than Bogans. I think we can say that with some confidence. On offense
  6. SouthSideRyan
    Does that help or hurt your argument? First, Wells threw 107 innings in his age-21 season in 2004. It's not like he was converted to pitching the year before his big league debut or something. Second, I look and see a player that pitched only 95 and 123 innings -- and never more than 131 -- before having his workload increased to 191 and 194 innings his first two years in MLB. With that rather sudden increase in workload, it doesn't surprise me he became injured and only pitched 142 innings last year. Help, unless you think he's likely to be injured the rest of his career because of a 2 year delayed injury from an increased workload. He's a pitcher though. Injuries generally aren't just one off issues with them. Arms deteriorate and when they start off mediocre (stuff wise, not results) they generally don't have much place to go but down. It's not like it was a frayed labrum, it was a forearm injury.
  7. SouthSideRyan
    Wells faced 39.04 batters per 9 innings in '10. and faced 37.77 batters per 9 innings in '09. A small part of the rise in rate stats from '09-'10 can be attributed to that.
  8. SouthSideRyan
    Exile, your K/9 numbers are way off. They're 5.66-6.67-5.45. (ETA looks like you posted K/BB) It also seems disingenuous to talk about him declining each year, when the only drop off of note (when factoring the K rate rising at a slightly higher rate than BB rate.) is his ERA. His FIP and bWAR were barely worse from '09-'10, while his xFIP and fWAR were slightly better.
  9. SouthSideRyan
    Does that help or hurt your argument? First, Wells threw 107 innings in his age-21 season in 2004. It's not like he was converted to pitching the year before his big league debut or something. Second, I look and see a player that pitched only 95 and 123 innings -- and never more than 131 -- before having his workload increased to 191 and 194 innings his first two years in MLB. With that rather sudden increase in workload, it doesn't surprise me he became injured and only pitched 142 innings last year. Help, unless you think he's likely to be injured the rest of his career because of a 2 year delayed injury from an increased workload.
  10. SouthSideRyan
    He doesn't strike people out, he's extremely hittable, and he's not all that great at preventing walks either. Couple that with what I thought was a considerable amount of luck on a few warning track drives that came up just short. I expected him to get worse from those early results, and so far he has. He's got marginal stuff and I just think it's very likely he's more like his 2011 numbers indicate than his early success. The difference in Wells '09-'10 and Wells '11 was that his HR rate nearly doubled and his GB rate tanked (likely a correlation) Pitch f/x is still unreliable going backwards regarding pitch type, but he threw the sinker ~5% less in 2011 vs 2010, I have no idea why, but I have a hard time just saying he was lucky to throw so many more groundballs and so many fewer home runs in '09 and '10.
  11. SouthSideRyan
    Was McGehee a converted pitcher?
  12. SouthSideRyan
    I really like this concept that the first 350 innings of Wells's major league career was smoke and mirrors (he doesn't strike out 8+/9!!!), and it's the next 130(some of which were spent injured) that are his true talent level
  13. SouthSideRyan
    If the Cubs get one of the Reds' top ten prospects, I might have to drive to Chicago and give Theo and Jed some hugs. Why?
  14. SouthSideRyan
    Fielder/Jackson/(Francis/Marquis/Piniero) would be a good start for next season, while still allowing budget room for Soler.
  15. SouthSideRyan
    So....the alternative is keep those guys and hope we can somehow hit the 75-80 range? No, the alternative is to [expletive] improve the team today and tomorrow and hope you can back into the playoffs this year while building towards a favorite in 2013, not to see how high we can get in BA's organizational rankings.
  16. SouthSideRyan
    And on the plus side, we can run out a 55 win team next year.
  17. SouthSideRyan
    We won't get fair value in return if we're only looking for guys who are going to contribute in the next year. Trading everyone but Castro is a terrible enough idea without limiting who you'll take in return.
  18. SouthSideRyan
    make sure those incentives don't kick in until after we trade him, i don't want to get stuck paying him $70M Take it to the Marlins board.
  19. SouthSideRyan
    I say we heavily incentivize the contract with easily obtainable options turning it into a 70M contract
  20. SouthSideRyan
    They're also fat.
  21. SouthSideRyan
    Does the difference in Chens really change things in terms of pitching for next year?
  22. SouthSideRyan
    Ok, so then what? No pitching for this year? What are your contracts for these 3? He'd have Matt Garza and whoever's in the system instead of Edwin Jackson and Bruce Chen. Oh no!
  23. SouthSideRyan
    Pre-season basketball is worse than the Pro Bowl
  24. SouthSideRyan
    Well, Leonard came to play, and Richardson/Paul came to play in the last three minutes. That's the only reason they pulled it out at the end. Same team next year minus Meyers. This is purgatory. DO MORE-ISS WITH ORRIS!!
  25. SouthSideRyan
    I'm kind of surprised they managed to put up 64 after that description.
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