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SouthSideRyan

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Everything posted by SouthSideRyan

  1. SouthSideRyan
    Does that help or hurt your argument? First, Wells threw 107 innings in his age-21 season in 2004. It's not like he was converted to pitching the year before his big league debut or something. Second, I look and see a player that pitched only 95 and 123 innings -- and never more than 131 -- before having his workload increased to 191 and 194 innings his first two years in MLB. With that rather sudden increase in workload, it doesn't surprise me he became injured and only pitched 142 innings last year. Help, unless you think he's likely to be injured the rest of his career because of a 2 year delayed injury from an increased workload. He's a pitcher though. Injuries generally aren't just one off issues with them. Arms deteriorate and when they start off mediocre (stuff wise, not results) they generally don't have much place to go but down. It's not like it was a frayed labrum, it was a forearm injury.
  2. SouthSideRyan
    Wells faced 39.04 batters per 9 innings in '10. and faced 37.77 batters per 9 innings in '09. A small part of the rise in rate stats from '09-'10 can be attributed to that.
  3. SouthSideRyan
    Exile, your K/9 numbers are way off. They're 5.66-6.67-5.45. (ETA looks like you posted K/BB) It also seems disingenuous to talk about him declining each year, when the only drop off of note (when factoring the K rate rising at a slightly higher rate than BB rate.) is his ERA. His FIP and bWAR were barely worse from '09-'10, while his xFIP and fWAR were slightly better.
  4. SouthSideRyan
    Does that help or hurt your argument? First, Wells threw 107 innings in his age-21 season in 2004. It's not like he was converted to pitching the year before his big league debut or something. Second, I look and see a player that pitched only 95 and 123 innings -- and never more than 131 -- before having his workload increased to 191 and 194 innings his first two years in MLB. With that rather sudden increase in workload, it doesn't surprise me he became injured and only pitched 142 innings last year. Help, unless you think he's likely to be injured the rest of his career because of a 2 year delayed injury from an increased workload.
  5. SouthSideRyan
    He doesn't strike people out, he's extremely hittable, and he's not all that great at preventing walks either. Couple that with what I thought was a considerable amount of luck on a few warning track drives that came up just short. I expected him to get worse from those early results, and so far he has. He's got marginal stuff and I just think it's very likely he's more like his 2011 numbers indicate than his early success. The difference in Wells '09-'10 and Wells '11 was that his HR rate nearly doubled and his GB rate tanked (likely a correlation) Pitch f/x is still unreliable going backwards regarding pitch type, but he threw the sinker ~5% less in 2011 vs 2010, I have no idea why, but I have a hard time just saying he was lucky to throw so many more groundballs and so many fewer home runs in '09 and '10.
  6. SouthSideRyan
    Was McGehee a converted pitcher?
  7. SouthSideRyan
    I really like this concept that the first 350 innings of Wells's major league career was smoke and mirrors (he doesn't strike out 8+/9!!!), and it's the next 130(some of which were spent injured) that are his true talent level
  8. SouthSideRyan
    If the Cubs get one of the Reds' top ten prospects, I might have to drive to Chicago and give Theo and Jed some hugs. Why?
  9. SouthSideRyan
    Fielder/Jackson/(Francis/Marquis/Piniero) would be a good start for next season, while still allowing budget room for Soler.
  10. SouthSideRyan
    So....the alternative is keep those guys and hope we can somehow hit the 75-80 range? No, the alternative is to [expletive] improve the team today and tomorrow and hope you can back into the playoffs this year while building towards a favorite in 2013, not to see how high we can get in BA's organizational rankings.
  11. SouthSideRyan
    And on the plus side, we can run out a 55 win team next year.
  12. SouthSideRyan
    We won't get fair value in return if we're only looking for guys who are going to contribute in the next year. Trading everyone but Castro is a terrible enough idea without limiting who you'll take in return.
  13. SouthSideRyan
    make sure those incentives don't kick in until after we trade him, i don't want to get stuck paying him $70M Take it to the Marlins board.
  14. SouthSideRyan
    I say we heavily incentivize the contract with easily obtainable options turning it into a 70M contract
  15. SouthSideRyan
    They're also fat.
  16. SouthSideRyan
    Does the difference in Chens really change things in terms of pitching for next year?
  17. SouthSideRyan
    Ok, so then what? No pitching for this year? What are your contracts for these 3? He'd have Matt Garza and whoever's in the system instead of Edwin Jackson and Bruce Chen. Oh no!
  18. SouthSideRyan
    Pre-season basketball is worse than the Pro Bowl
  19. SouthSideRyan
    Well, Leonard came to play, and Richardson/Paul came to play in the last three minutes. That's the only reason they pulled it out at the end. Same team next year minus Meyers. This is purgatory. DO MORE-ISS WITH ORRIS!!
  20. SouthSideRyan
    I'm kind of surprised they managed to put up 64 after that description.
  21. SouthSideRyan
    To clarify, I meant the entire state, collapses into the earth, just forming a giant hole in the ground to the east of Illinois. It'd be inconvenient for driving out east, but we all need to sacrifice for the greater good.
  22. SouthSideRyan
    So I brainfarted and thought the Illinois game was tonight. Any sort of description of what went wrong for those who watched it? PS I hope Indiana collapses, it'd be really fun. PS Kansas lost to Davidson??? At least there's that.
  23. SouthSideRyan
    Thankfully, putting the best baseball team possible on the field in 2012 isn't Theo's #1 priority. Building a perennial contender is Theo's #1 priority. Achieving that objective may involve trading guys like Garza and Marshall, even at the expense of 2012. But I'm sure you knew that. Because the only way to put a competitive team on the field in 2012 is by ruining the long-term future of the franchise.
  24. SouthSideRyan
    NO THE CUBS DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF WASTED MONEY ALREADY. ESPECIALLY IN THE NEXT [expletive] FEW YEARS
  25. SouthSideRyan
    Two of those prospects got us our two cornerstones over the past half decade. It's really disingenuous to say Bobby Hill is what got us Ramirez.
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