The Big East, Big Ten, and ACC are going to suck up most of the at large bids. The SEC and Big XII are way down, and I have a hard time seeing either getting more than 3 at larges. That leaves 28 at large bids to the remaining 4 BCS conferences/Mid-Majors. I think at max the Pac 10 takes 5 at larges, that puts you at 23 for the 3 conferences/Mid Majors. Assume 7 for the Big East and you're 16. Then you've got the ACC which is pretty top heavy. Duke, UNC, Clemson, and Wake are locks. After that, you have Maryland, BC, and Miami which look okayish right now. After them, there's not much of anything. That brings you to 10. As far as mid major threats, the only one that looks safe to take an at large is the Mountain West.(2 if their lucky) After that you've got Conference USA, Horizon, West Coast, and Metro each trying to sneak in an at large as a 12 seed. Of course there are upsets in the conference tourneys, but you've got a weak mid-major field this season, and 2 conferences which are way down. Even assuming what I did above, which I think is generous(I could see any of those conferences taking 1 less bid than they are, and can't see any taking more than I gave except the Big East and maybe the Big 12.) the road is still there for 7 Big Ten teams.