Northside Blues

I'm not necessarily arguing the point he's trying to make here, but I find it odd that he used 1999 as his cutoff, considering that Adrian Gonzalez was drafted first overall in 2000. Well, in those 16 years there were 39 high school 1B, in the 11 since there have only been six drafted in the first thirty picks. They are Stars Adrian Gonzalez Prince Fielder MLB Starters/Bench Casey Kotchman James Loney Prospects: Eric Hosmer, a top 10 prospect overall Christian Yelich (2010 draftee). That's gotta be the best success rate of first rounders at any position. Granted, teams probably learned in the late 90s that drafting high school firstbasemen was a bad idea unless they were really good, hence the lower percentage of 1B drafted in the first round. Also, Gonzalez, Hosmer, Kotchman and Loney aren't terrible athletes. They'd all probably play 3B or RF if they were right-handed, especially Loney and his mid 90s arm. If I am not mistaken, Hosmer, Kotchman and Loney were all OF in HS who were drafted as a 1B. Yelich played 3B/OF in high school. The only one who is unathletic would be Prince.

Yes, that career minor league OPS of .708 is getting the job done.

unless I am mistaken the standard distribution around a teams "true talent" is about six wins. Granted for the entire league around 81 wins it will be higher. The standard deviation for a team around its specific true win total should be around six, ie a league average team should win 87 games about 17 percent of the time and 90 around 8 percent of the time. And in other words, on average atleast one team (and a half) should win 12 MORE games than they should a season.

this is true. also, a player who is worth 6 wins is worth more than 2 players worth 3 wins a piece. this kind of analysis ignores that. it's pointless. each win a player adds costs and is worth more than the previous one.

Not true. According to fangraphs he has been worth 24.0m, he's gotten 33.5m. Even if you are correct it only further validates my point.

This statement and the original article are pointless. They couldn't be more off base. Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano have performed better than their contracts. Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and several other players have performed better than their contracts. The only two players who haven't are Soriano and Fukudome. Boston, for example, and all of their success have done no better job at getting fair value on the open market. They have Julio Lugo, Daisuke Matsuzaka and others. The problem with the Cubs has been getting production out of players with fewer than five years experience. The Red Sox had/have Lester, Youkilis, Pedroia, Buchholz, and Papelbon. The simple fact is that Jim Hendry's bone head mistakes on the free agent market haven't been the cause of the poor performance.

Pujols doesn't have nearly the same amount of attention on him that James does.

Yeah that Guzman one made me think a second. Another one is that Luis Montanez just turned 29 a few weeks ago!

You are naive if you can trust the Cubs management to handle any situation correctly. That's how you get Damon Buford over Corey Patterson, Neifi over.....anyone, and Hill over Soto for more than 1 game in a row. Nonsense.

This, and you also have to hope that Kendry Morales gets healthy and hits like he did two years ago.

Terrible way to think about it. Wrigley's an outdoor park. Despite the cozy dimensions, it only allows about 1 more home run per 100 flyballs hit. So that's like one or two more home runs over the course of the year for Garza, an inconsequental difference once you consider that he also has a relatively high consistent IFFB rate. Moving to Wrigley didn't spell doom for a pitcher with even higher flyball tendencies (Lilly).

How many "really strong" years does Johnny Cueto have? Zero? Maybe one.

Marshall's window of opportunity to land a starting gig with this organization closed last year when he cemented himself as a fixture of our bullpen. It's a damn shame too, he's probably the third best starter on the team after Z and Dempster.

I was making that comment as a reason why this type of analysis is worthless, not a statement of analysis of the difference between Castro and Renteria.

I'm not sure how so many of you are barely putting Jaime Garcia in the top ten of pitchers in the NL Central, if at all. For what it's worth: 2011 NLC Pitchers by ERA in 2010 (sub 4.50) 1. 2.42 Adam Wainwright, STL 2. 2.70 Jaime Garcia, STL 3. 3.22 Chris Carpenter, STL 4. 3.33 Carlos Zambrano, CHC 5. 3.51 Travis Wood, CIN 7. 3.64 Johnny Cueto, CIN 8. 3.64 Shaun Marcum, MIL 9. 3.84 Yovani Gallardo, MIL 10. 3.85 Ryan Dempster, CHC 11. 3.88 Bronson Arroyo, CIN 12. 3.91 Matt Garza, CHC 14. 4.09 Tom Gorzelanny, CHC 15. 4.17 Zack Greinke, MIL 16. 4.22 Carlos Silva, CHC 17. 4.26 Randy Wells, CHC 18. 4.46 Homer Bailey, CIN FIP 1. 2.86 Adam Wainwright 2. 3.02 Yovani Gallardo 3. 3.34 Zack Greinke 4. 3.41 Jaime Garcia 5. 3.42 Travis Wood 8. 3.69 Chris Carpenter 9. 3.71 Carlos Zambrano 10. 3.74 Shaun Marcum 11. 3.75 Carlos Silva 12. 3.92 Tom Gorzelanny 13. 3.93 Randy Wells 14. 3.97 Johnny Cueto 15. 3.99 Ryan Dempster 18. 4.22 Chris Naverson 19. 4.42 Matt Garza Jaime Garcia is certainly one of the top five or so in the division. The scary thought is that while he played great last season and a drop in production would be likely, another thing to consider is that he missed almost all of 2009 with TJS, so 2010, CB and command wise, could have been poor for him. There's room for growth in those two areas. He may not experience much of a drop.

On the four days when he's not starting, Ryan Dempster should definitely be in the booth.

Neither can Marlon Byrd. Fukudome isn't any worse out there and Colvin, if given time, could be plausible in CF.

I think the Cubs would be best off trying to sell on Byrd and trying to let either Fukudome or Colvin play centerfield.

im surprised people are complaining when auburn was playing againt evil team corporate nike.

i havent really followed the story, but has auburn even been legitimately accused with any shred of evidence other than newtons dad asking another (inferior) institution for money, of paying money for players?

I hope you're right. As an LSU fan and given the whole Scam Newton thing and how dirty this team that would be so sweet. yeah but auburn deserves the 04 one now.

lol idiot personal foul. Think guys. Think.

It's really similar to the Florida-OU game a couple years ago - plenty of yards but no points. Inconsistency. One has to think that it's at least in part because of the forty or fifty days off they have.

I like. Ramirez's bat could eventually play at a different position. Unfortunately, it's never played above AA.

Ok? Meaning it's a fair prediction.