Deeg

Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make. This team has made a lot of spectacular moves these last few years, then. You know, it's worth pointing out that the second desirable FA signing is going to be a lot easier when you can point to the first one and say, "See? It's not just 'wait for the kids' - we're willing to financially commit to winning now." You must not be very familiar with Kyle. Trust me, I am. It's just that was more a general observation than a response to his sarcastic remark.

Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make. This team has made a lot of spectacular moves these last few years, then. You know, it's worth pointing out that the second desirable FA signing is going to be a lot easier when you can point to the first one and say, "See? It's not just 'wait for the kids' - we're willing to financially commit to winning now."

Fangraphs on the contract:

As long as you're content with trying to win like a small-market team, that's fine. The Royals and Devil Rays do have their successes from time to time.

Because people on this board don't know how to find Cubs Den?

The sky is falling. Arguello actually wrote something coherent, somewhat skeptical of Cubs brass, and worth quoting: http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/11/cubs-need-more-than-hope-as-they-get-set-to-meet-with-lester/ Where have you gone, Cubs Den - Cub Nation turns its lonely eyes to you? Never thought I'd see the day. Fact is, I think Arguello is pretty on-point here. As I posted a few months ago, Theo's philosophy of "we set the value a player is worth, and if they go over, we pass" sounds fine on paper. But the practical impact is "we're not going to sign any free agents coveted by other mid-market or large-market teams". Because the reality of FA is, the really desirable guys get overpaid. They get more than they're worth on the back end of their deals. If you're not willing to live with that, you may as well not even bother with first-tier FAs. Rather than this manifesto, Theo really needs to go in saying "this is a guy we really need, and unless things get insane, we're willing to overpay to get him". That's just how FA works. Martin's deal looks like an overpay (Fangraphs says it isn't, FWIW) and I'm not specifically saying we needed to match it. But at some point Theo needs to prove the Cubs are serious - prove it to the rest of baseball, to the fans, and to the guys in his own organization. And that means at some point he has to overpay to get the guy he thinks can really make a difference. If he doesn't, and the Cubs come out of another off-season signing only castoffs and second-tier guys like Hammel or Masterson, there's no reason to take the Cubs seriously as a team that's willing to do whatever it takes to contend. Until Theo actually proves it, it's all talk - and talk, as they say, is cheap. I can anticipate the rebuttal to this - the straw man that Theo just needs to be committed to the plan, and he shouldn't trash it by selling out to go crazy on a big-name FA. Except that overpaying for a FA isn't selling out the plan, and it isn't selling out the future for the present - it's making the commitment that the organization is willing to be bold and take financial risks to support what they've done with the farm system. In point of fact trading elite prospects for Hamels would be selling out the future a lot more than overpaying for Lester. The reality is, Jon Lester has become a very important figure for this organization - not just in baseball terms (where he's huge) but symbolically too. And like it or not, that matters.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 50s50 seconds ago Caveat to earlier report on #Cubs as leader for Martin: #BlueJays still could be in mix. #Tigers feared TOR would outbid them for VMart.

I've said all along that the key to whether the Cubs land Martin is whether someone (i.e. the Dodgers) is willing to go to 5 years. I don't think Theo would lose Martin over 1-2 million a year if it's a 4-year deal - he'd be willing to eat that money, assuming Martin was willing to sign in Chicago on a comparable contract. But I never thought Theo was willing to go 5. Hopefully we never find out. The thing about all this "Cubs are the favorites" talk, though, is that LA could still come in at the last minute with a McCann contract and render all of that moot. Until Martin actually signs, I think the talk of "front-runners" is pretty meaningless.

Maybe La Stella can play left? I mean, if he's almost-average at 2B it doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility. If the Cubs don't make any significant OF moves I suppose La Stella might be an option as half of a LF platoon - he won't SLG anything, but if he could give you a .340 OBP out there with average defense he'd have some short-term use.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 4s5 seconds ago Executives involved in bidding for Russell Martin believe #Cubs are clear front-runner. Deal expected to be in four-year, $64M range.

It seems to me that OBP is a skill that plays a lot more in a guy that's an everyday player rather than a utility infielder. How often do you see guys regarded as great pinch-hitters because they walk a lot? And it's not as though La Stella adds any versatility - he plays one position at a below-average level. I certainly think the Cubs need LHB, and they damn well need some OBP guys. But this trade really doesn't add up unless the Cubs have totally soured on Vizcaino (which is more than possible). La Stella simply doesn't fit the equation given the makeup of the 40-man and where the Cubs' impact talent plays.

I know this will shock everyone, but Brett at BN has concluded that this was a great move by the FO, and that La Stella is "clearly a more valuable asset than Vizcaino".

Well now - isn't that intriguing timing.

Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo 9m9 minutes ago So looks like deal is Hellickson to #DBacks for prospects Justin Williams, Andrew Velazquez. #Rays

Noah: "Relax. He's coming back from two crazy surgeries ... so everybody needs to chill the f*** out."

Why wouldn't Thibs go to a smaller lineup here? Why use Gasol and Noah against this mosquito lineup?

Hammy. I'll take it.

God, watching Rose is brutal - every moment he attacks you fear the worst. That last slip doesn't look good.

Sure, if someone blows him away, but what's his motivation? Van Slyke is pretty good, he's cheap, he can play all 3 OF positions, and he's the least likely to bitch about not playing every day.

If he moves an OF (when) he wants to move one of the ones with a big contract, even if he has to eat money. He's not looking to move Van Slyke.

Kyle Gibson for Van Slyke??

I think Miller and Robertson are in very different categories. First off in terms of cost, but also because Miller is a lights-out lefty, maybe the best lefty reliever in the game. For what I've seen estimated in terms of cost (something like 4/32) I'd be very supportive.

Gordo vs. Sullivan steel cage death match?

1.5 years of Samardzija, an inferior pitcher, got Addison Russell. Oakland also didn't have the option of signing FA Pitcher - so it's a little bit apples and oranges. If they are trading for Zimmerman they better be damn sure they can sign him to an extension - no need trade anything of real value for 1 year of anyone at this point. I don't think there's any way the Cubs trade for Zimmerman without an extension. And the chance to negotiate one without any competition is a significant portion of his trade value.

Zimmerman is arguably one of 3-4 best SP in baseball, based on his last two seasons. Castro is an average defensive SS coming off a very good season (not a great one) after one awful and one mediocre one. Yes, Castro's contract is a good one - but Cub fans are way overvaluing him based on that good season, just as they undervalued him based on those off seasons. To a guy like Rizzo, Russell and Baez would be significantly more attractive targets. There's another factor here, too - if Castro regresses to 2013 levels (which is hardly impossible) he becomes one step up from a salary dump. If the Cubs don't move him, they are taking some risk considering the number of high upside prospects they have behind him.