I'm agreeing with you. When trying to predict future performance, all you need is W/L for teams, AVG for hitters, and W/L for pitchers. These nerds keep trying to play the game with their D&D computer crap.
If that's your worry, any time through 2018 is likely to be fine. the 2014 cubs currently have a positive run differential. can't wait to see them hang the "2014 run differential champs" banner. Tell me about it. These are the same idiots that think other teams will actually want to trade for Samardzija and his 0-4 record.
Just because Lake has been good and everyone Kyle said was better has been way way worse, which means Kyle was wrong about literally everything (aka: the "classic Kyle"), doesn't mean that Kyle has to admit he was wrong.