Cubswin11

Seeing as they don’t have as many guys on major league salaries and out of options as last year I think they’ll be far more aggressive with shuffling through guys in season if performance dictates it.

[tweet] [/tweet]

Well take them off the board for a Willy trade [tweet] [/tweet]

At this point I don't think it's unreasonable to guess that the "we'd love to extend Bryant but Boras" thing is a PR story to give the Cubs cover when they intend to trade him under any circumstances, because the real priority is getting below the LT. Oh absolutely. If/when we trade him there’s definitely going to be leaks we made a final “fair”offer after trying to extend him multiple times and really wanted to keep him, etc but Boras and KB were greedy and unreasonable and they forced the hand to trade him.

Just extend him you fucks

Weirdly Jason Castro is still out there. Back before we found out the team was crying poor I thought he was a great option to be Willson's backfill. That's still possible, and I also wouldn't hate Russell Martin. But those are the last two names available that don't make me want to hurl. But there hasn't been a peep about Willson being traded since the winter meetings. I wonder if it's been back burnered until KB gets dealt, or if they've decided to hold onto him. The team brought in that highly regarded catching coach so maybe they've convinced themselves that they can fix his framing? Who are even teams that need a catcher yet that would be in on Willy or grab Castro/Martin? Angels, Padres, Twins and Rays? Can’t really think of others. I’m sure a bad team like the Mariners or Tigers or something may be in on one of the FA guys too just to have a vet and maybe flip them or something.

Seems unlikely just because it would take a series of trades to line up to make it happen or the vaunted 3-way trade with KB going somewhere and Arenado coming in. So basically they're not trading Bryant...Could have told you this in June 2013....How many days until ST? No, that’s not what I’m saying. I’d still lean we are trading Bryant in the next 45-60 days. I think trading KB and then trading for Arenado seems rather far fetched/a lot of moving parts and things lining up for that to happen. I see that being very unlikely.

I bet KB is more valuable and in demand than Arenado given the contracts.

[tweet] [/tweet] Seems unlikely just because it would take a series of trades to line up to make it happen or the vaunted 3-way trade with KB going somewhere and Arenado coming in.

[tweet] [/tweet]

Urban coming back somewhere maybe?

Either of those are rather, um, optimistic. Wow. That’s a 4-5+ win player and top ~5 CF in MLB. If the defense and base running graded out positively that’s borderline Acuna value from last year. Which yeah I’ll take the under.

Appreciate you walking it back in one post since I know that's the best I'll get You owned me there man, wow. Real difference in those words. Caught me clearly walking something back, saying a player is "fine" or "good" are two totally definitely different things. I agree we are all tired of it, but everything that seems to be going on seems to point to those things being things that likely will happen and we're stuck with this LT horsefeathers. They've been useless trash more recently than not and for a decent amount of time with no indicators they can actually ever be good again.

Interesting take out of everything I've said in these back and forths or even ever on Almora Fair enough on agreeing to disagree. With that out of the way - can we not bring into every thread how desperate the Cubs are to get under the LT by trading Bryant while rehashing the same points? Like that's got to be annoying for everyone too, definitely gets my vote You literally spent 2-3 pages posting last week and posts in here saying Almora is actually a fine player and it’s fine if he’s part of the team next year and you’re implying the bench guys we have are fine. Don’t know how much else can be taken away from what you’ve said other than that. Derwood even called you out as the Almora defender or whatever the other day. The latter part, sure I guess? But that’s literally information we’re hearing as a reason to why they may be moving him or why nothing is being done with adding guys yet. It’s dealing with relative facts and info we’ve heard. Any time a trade involving him comes up or us not making moves to date it’s because of the LT or the LT is playing a role in it. Unfortunately the LT is a part of discussing all this stuff if we want to talk about what’s going on in reality.

We've been arguing these same things, multiple times in multiple threads on the board all offseason. Your mind clearly isn't going to be changed off of thinking Almora is actually somehow good and useful on the roster in 2020 and the depth is somehow actually fine. We clearly disagree here. I don't think anyone enjoys seeing the back and forth either and taking up space in multiple threads rehashing the same horsefeathers. Let's just agree to disagree because it really isn't worth the time for either of us to continue this nonsense and doesn't really matter in the end. Theo is gonna do what he's gonna do.

As has been mentioned, it’s probably that he doesn’t want to trade either right now until they know what’s going on with KB. They probably want to make sure they get a guy back who can start in a trade for KB before shedding 1 or 2 guys who have a rotation spot currently. You can likely move a Chatwood in ST regardless if you attach a prospect and decide to keep KB then go dumpster dive on a swing man or whatever. If the planned outcome is KB is likely gone in a month or so it really doesn’t matter to move Chatwood or Q right now anyways to free up money to sign a margin add like Shogo, Cesar, etc because they aren’t winning anyways. Waiting 2-3 more months to trade someone like Chatwood really will diminish any trade value he had. A couple of months ago, Chatwood and Bote to Texas might have given us a decent return, but after adding Kluber, Gibson, & Lyles they no longer need a SP. The fact that Theo is fixated on trading KB and needing to await his decision before doing anything to help the club is really frustrating. Chatwood has no value, I don't see how we were getting anything back for him in the last month and nothing will change in 3 months, IMO. He's a pure dump that a team like the Mariners take because they get like Cole Roederer or something to pay him $13 million this year or he's a guy a team that loses pitching in ST takes a gamble on but we still need to throw a prospect in with him but maybe the level of prospect diminishes because of the need for pitching increases. But yes this is all really frustrating.

They should just make Rizzo the lead off hitter and be done with it. It's fine for stretches but then you lose your most consistent middle of the order bat. Plus he's just a terrible baserunner. You're still putting a guy who gets on base the most in the spot that gets the most ABs. Stack Rizzo/KB/Schwarbs 1-3 vs RHP and let them get on base and slug in front of Javy, Willy, etc. Good things will happen if you have your 1-3 hitters consistently getting on base. What good is a "middle of the order" bat if he has a guy hitting in front of him with a sub .300 OBP like Rizzo and KB have had for the last two years? Get some certainty up there and let the rest trickle down essentially. I'm not too worried about his base running, it sucks but it's not like he needs to start stealing or anything. Go something like: Vs RHP Rizzo 1B KB 3B Schwarbs LF Javy SS Heyward RF (contact behind Javy/OBP guys) Willy C Happ CF P Nico 2B

I still disagree. This post is more a case of being frustrated with the lack of certainty on the roster than the depth. Depth is not certainty and certainty is not depth, if the Cubs are pretending to be poor then a path to getting a healthy mix of both almost requires a phase like this where neither is easy to see - Almost if not all those guys listed literally had the worst years of their pro careers. Since future production isn't just determined by the latest season, particularly with some of the sample sizes these guys are working with and this offseason's spending on coaching and technology, there's more room for optimism and bounce back than the current doombonering is allowing. Then there's internal additions like Happ and Hoerner with more starter potential than any of those guys - CF is deeper now than it's been since Fowler left with Happ and Hoerner in the mix along with Heyward, Almora and Kemp. What they lack is a clear and defined starter - not depth - and they've had this starter issue for years with fewer available bodies. (Slight aside from this depth convo: Ian Happ's shot to take this job outright in 2020 is underrated, nice mix of tools, skills, and the makeup to make it happen) - The same approach you're praising them for with the bullpen is the same one they've taken at 2B and CF. There's a bunch of guys who may or may not be able to step up and make things work, a couple have the tools to make an impact, but very little certainty You have far more faith than me in shitty players suddenly turning back in to useful players in Almora, Descalso and Kemp. When it's not only most recent seasons but a larger body of work showing they just aren't very good. It has been said over and over, but Almora has literally been one of the worst ~5 players in MLB for 1.5 years now and at some point that is who he is and there's not a ton of past performance/pedigree to fall back on that he just needs more time. Some of the bench player adds that have been suggested are far more certain than bounce backs from them. We have CF depth on paper only, once you dig in to the likely value of guys and how they need to work platoon wise we are in trouble. I also think Happ and Nico do have plenty of starter potential in them, I wish at least one if not both had a more certain backup option/platoon partner with them then what's currently on the roster (Holt, Pillar, Cesar, etc). Banking on Nico especially seems a bit risky, especially as a CF'er since he's never played there before (I have faith he could figure it out but would be nice if he could start in AAA and work on it for a while along with some of the things we see with the bat that need to improve, him starting in AAA also means Almora/Descalso/Kemp are likely getting more PAs than they should). I'd argue the approaches are not the same for bullpen and 2B/CF. Or at least shouldn't be the route taken. First we know bullpens are far more volatile, especially the last 1-2 spots. It's better to just throw 3-6 cheap bodies at that position than signing a Brach or whatever for the last 1-2 spots. It's far easier to lock in some certainty at 2B/CF than RP with some of the vet FA adds that were/are out there, they don't carry the same volatility that bullpen adds do (especially the cheap back/middle end FA RP types). I think we can be more certain Almora, Descalso and Kemp likely just suck and it's not like a RP who throws 95+ who just needs some tweaks to bounce back. Like Kevin Pillar has been worth at last 1.5 WAR for 5 straight years and over 2 in 4 of them. That's certainty to me.

They should just make Rizzo the lead off hitter and be done with it.

Yes? They gave 980 PAs to Almora, Descalso, Kemp, Russell, Cargo and Zagunis last year and as of today have done nothing to improve on that. 650 of those PAs would make the opening day roster if the season started today (Almora, Descalso, Kemp). Russell was the only guy who produced positive WAR or a wRC+ over 77, everyone but Zagunis and Russell posted a wRC+ of 64 or lower. This also led to suboptimal things like Heyward having to face LHP far too often. Depth was and continues to be a major issue (Theo and Jed have literally said so themselves). I agree 2B can likely be solved in house with Nico/Happ/Bote but that still leaves the OF/CF. I don't see how you can say with a straight face CF has multiple in house options currently, at least in terms of options who are good. CF/OF definitely lacks depth and certainty right now (there's still major question marks and platoon issues, they need a RHH CF'er and a RHH option to platoon with Heyward and/or Schwarbs, which maybe that's KB). Part of the in house options in the OF include Happ and maybe even Nico right now too. Both clearly have flaws/questions and looking at them as CF/OF answers takes away from the 2B solutions as well. It takes almost literally everything breaking right to have both figured out with just in house options as of today. I agree maybe some of these margin adds just weren't worth it for what they ultimately went for, no issue sitting out Sogard at $5 mil or whatever, but they need to add a little more certainty on the depth levels (you aren't getting "impact" there). Holt, Pillar and Souza could go a long ways to adding some certainty and allow for a roster that makes some sense with platoon set ups at multiple spots. Holt/Nico could platoon at 2B, Heyward/Souza in RF, Happ/Pillar in CF, KB in LF with Bote at 3B vs LHP for example. On the positive side, they seem to have done a nice job with the pen so far. IMO. They are taking the depth by numbers approach and at least are giving themselves a ton of options to cycle through, unlike last year where they were stuck with guys who didn't have options left (Kintzler, Strop, Brach, Cishek, Carl, etc) and had to ride them out longer than most of their performances should’ve dictated. They now at least have guys who they can shuffle through more aggressively as the year goes on to try and figure out the last 1-2 spots. Again would be nice to have maybe 1-2 more spots of certainty in the pen but with bullpens that's always tough, you can at least see what they're trying to do.

I think it’s pretty much as simple as you aren’t getting anything back for either and you’re going to have to include money and/or prospects you don’t want to move to move either of them. If you are that desperate to save money, then you either kick in some cash or add a prospect to get rid of them. Also, it would have been much easier to move them before everyone else made trades and signed free agents, but everything is on shutdown until the KB ruling. There's absolutely no reason that Theo couldn't make other deals to reduce payroll while waiting for the KB decision. As has been mentioned, it’s probably that he doesn’t want to trade either right now until they know what’s going on with KB. They probably want to make sure they get a guy back who can start in a trade for KB before shedding 1 or 2 guys who have a rotation spot currently. You can likely move a Chatwood in ST regardless if you attach a prospect and decide to keep KB then go dumpster dive on a swing man or whatever. If the planned outcome is KB is likely gone in a month or so it really doesn’t matter to move Chatwood or Q right now anyways to free up money to sign a margin add like Shogo, Cesar, etc because they aren’t winning anyways.

Yeah he likely isn’t gonna be a star but fit a hole here. It really seems like the plan right now is either run it back with the exact same roster except #5 starter and some bullpen moves or wait on KB decision then trade him to get under the LT and I guess see what’s out there left in FA. Which is a stupid horsefeathering plan. Because if they wanted to get under the LT and just do some of these small adds Q and/or Chatwood (use Roederer or Strumpf or some 7-15 org guy) could’ve or should’ve been moved by now to accomplish that. Yeah they're clearly waiting on KB for EVERYTHING. They don't want to deal Q because they're not sure if they'll have those additional arms yet. They don't want to sign anybody because they don't know how much money they have available. I'm not sure why Willson has been affected....I'm starting to wonder if they've changed their mind on moving him? Yup, I don’t how to read it on Willy. Agree with everything else you said, we’re just stuck right now. With Willy maybe they changed their mind, maybe there’s an overlap with him and KB for teams to trade to and they don’t want to do a trade with Willy to a team who could jump in on KB once he’s settled (Angels, Padres, Rays, Twins, Mets?, Rangers, off the top of my head seem to have overlap for both). Or maybe they want to do KB first to see exactly what they get prospect wise (CF, SP, etc.) and don’t want to do too much overlap on a position/prospect type in a deal? I could see it being any or a combination of those.

Yeah he likely isn’t gonna be a star but fit a hole here. It really seems like the plan right now is either run it back with the exact same roster except #5 starter and some bullpen moves or wait on KB decision then trade him to get under the LT and I guess see what’s out there left in FA. Which is a stupid horsefeathering plan. Because if they wanted to get under the LT and just do some of these small adds Q and/or Chatwood (use Roederer or Strumpf or some 7-15 org guy) could’ve or should’ve been moved by now to accomplish that.

If you're trading KB and Q, then why in the world are we keeping a $16 million closer and a $13 million relief pitcher? Probably because of one of the following: 1) depending on the returns, the Cubs could either still be favored or at least have a realistic shot in the division 2) you're hoping for a solid first half from the closer to up his value from where it is right now 3) somebody still has to pitch and the "relief" pitcher would be one of the five best options remaining I think it’s pretty much as simple as you aren’t getting anything back for either and you’re going to have to include money and/or prospects you don’t want to move to move either of them.

Does it work that way? If he signs an extension, even if stays at the arb figure this year isn’t the LT hit of whatever the AAV is of the new deal?