Cubswin11

You're trying to fix 2019 and 2019 cannot be fixed. Holt and Pilllar combining for ~900 PAs on the 2020 Cubs means very bad things for the 2020 Cubs, especially since it took so many PAs to get 2.8 fWAR in 2019. Both guys will be 32 in 2020 and coming off ~ 1.5 fWAR seasons at 31. At 31 in 2018, Daniel Descalso put up 1.5 fWAR or so. He then signed with the Cubs with fewer PAs in mind from 2018 and had his worst season in a half decade. Why are those guys safer from this same situation playing out? Again the deck is so stacked against Pillar in particular - off the bat what you want out of him requires him to both sign for a gig he doesn't want under a contract well short of what he's asking while jobs are available and then lose to Ian Happ in ST. If he wins, there's still a half decade's worth of sub-.300 OBPs to work with out of an everyday lineup spot, which 2019 Almora did for the first time ever as a MLer to very bad team results If the case against aiming higher is the LT, the team's already over the LT so where does Holt/Pillar money come from? 2018 was literally the first time Descalso put up higher than a .6 WAR for a season. Before then he literally had as many years at negative WAR as he did at positive WAR (which fluctuated from .1-.6). I went over all the reasons I think Holt and Pillar are more likely to put up positive WAR than Descalso/Almora next year on the last page or two. We can project all we want that it's fine because Descalso/Almora are just 5th OF'ers/pinch hitter are will see minimal PA's but we know that never works, someone gets hurt or sucks and they end up in an elevated role and they've failed miserably at that most of their careers. Holt and Pillar have proven to provide value in the situation they end up getting more PAs than we would project in preseason and they're just better players based on the body of work anyways. I don't care what Pillar thinks he should or can get, the situation is it's almost February and he still doesn't have a job. He very likely has to settle for a job on a team somewhere where he isn't guaranteed every day starts going in to ST. Adding these guys and a Souza on 1 year deals isn't going to take us much past $15 mil over on the LT (on the high side with the roster as of today) you can always shed money at the deadline to get under if they aren't looking competitive. The LT hit isn't calculated until years end and if we are competitive in to July maybe Tommy Boy is fine getting the bill for the tax again. If he's on the team this year I hope he plays and provides value like his 2017 self. There's nothing to suggest in the numbers for almost 2 years now that, that will be the case. Not even in this lessened role for him you are talking about because he just had that lessened role last year and failed.

Even if you buy the bold as 100% fact, and it's just another unverified statement among many, go try selling him on taking less playing time for Ian Happ's sake in January The Cubs finished in 3rd place, 7 games back, and only 3 games above .500. That's not marginal moves away nor a gap the bottom two position players on the roster are supposed to cover themselves. It's not a gap Kevin Pillar or Brock Holt are covering either....... Also it slipped my mind that Almora basically had this role already, in 2016-2017 and was successful as was the team It is a marginal move and it still is an improvement. Pillar/Holt got ~900 PAs last year and were worth 2.8 WAR combined. Descalso, Kemp, Almora got ~650 and were worth -1.7. Scale it back to equal out the PAs at ~650 and that’s still a 2+ win improvement. Throw in they underachieved their Pythag that might have been all it took to swing things if they played a little closer to true talent level and had 2 better players on the back end of the bench. Also Almora pretty much had the same role this year that he did in 2017. Similar amount of PAs and games played in 2019 and 2017. Even similar PAs vs LHP and RHP both years. 2016 was like 40 games and 110 PAs, basically small sample size noise. So going back to the 2017 role doesn’t give me any comfort when he just horsefeathering failed miserably at it.

Even with discounted playing time Pillar is still better than Almora. Sure Pillar might not get the 2015-19 PAs to reach 2+ WAR. But he’s still better than Almora regardless of PAs and even if the backup/RHH CF’er is only in line for 200-300 PAs I’d rather they go to an actually decent player than Almora’s bum ass. These margin moves are where we lost a lot of value last year sticking with shitty players.

The dreams I have about the 2020 Cubs are actually better classified as nightmares. Every Cubs “dream” since 2016

I’m not a Bears fan or fan of any NFL team. The Packers were frauds, this happens every year with a few teams over performing. Their true talent was definitely more of a 8 or 9 win team or so, they just weren’t very good. Certainly not 13 win good to me. Even that random ass website had their average outcome as 9.7 wins (which, if you aren't good at math, is closer to a 10 wins team). They had a lot of games where they took the lead early and sat on their wins by milking out the clock...and they got sh1t kicked by the 49ers and somehow the Chargers. Ok. Sure, 8-8 it is. Whatever. "Frauds" whatever that means. 8, 9, 10. I don’t give a horsefeathers, this team just wasn’t that good. If you’re good at math 9.7 is closer to 8 than 13. They are and were frauds and 13 wins wasn’t indicative of their true talent level. A perfectly solid season, they achieved more than most probably expected and thought. Just don’t think they were particularly good.

I’m not a Bears fan or fan of any NFL team. The Packers were frauds, this happens every year with a few teams over performing. Their true talent was definitely more of a 8 or 9 win team or so, they just weren’t very good. Certainly not 13 win good to me.

Deserving to be here or not, it’s not surprising their exit involved getting blown out. They were frauds all year and easily could’ve been like 8-8. They just aren’t good and lucked in to 13 wins.

Wait, so you're on a platoon Kyle Schwarber thing too? Not just platoon Kyle Schwarber, but do it with a guy coming off a knee injury and surgery? This has to start in January 2020 when no baseball's happening and that guy is still available to everyone? Is the injury for symmetry? And this is to improve their chances of winning and competing while also not being negligent? Alright-y Anyway: - Yeah, not what I'm saying at all but who's reading? That said, I have said his low K profile compliments the LHH high K LF and the high K switch hitting likely starting CF, which it does just not to your arbitrary likings - I misread Pillar's WAR. OTOH, I did not mis-read his OBP and he legit has not topped .300 since 2016. Since he has such crappy OBPs it's safe to assume he's getting that WAR from: lots of playing time, some power, and defense. No one's paying a 32 YO for his glove in a future season, which is why he's still a FA even with lots of teams looking for CF help and could remain one well into ST - January 2020, after multiple people in the FO just said stuff about being very active before the season possibly and the offseason still having plenty of time, is not the time to worry about replacing the local pinch hitter (Descalso/Holt). Not only that but Holt should be and likely is pursuing a better FA contract than that imaginary offer you have for him It doesn’t compliment them in a positive way. Just because he doesn’t strike out much and there’s guys who strike out at decent rates he can platoon with doesn’t make him usefully complimentary if he literally can’t do anything on offense that’s valuable. I don’t necessarily want a strict, full time platoon for Schwarbs. But him and Heyward probably shouldn’t start more than 10% of the games vs LHP. I’d like to have RHH options for the OF to play over both him and Heyward vs LHP (Bryant likely being one, Souza ideally being the other) since KS/JH are both in the 70s for wRC+ vs LHP for their careers. I’d prefer these things get done sooner than later. These are clear holes and issues. I don’t trust anything the FO says with moves they might make or how busy they’ll be, but if these moves don’t get done until next month it won’t bother me. I just hope they get done before opening day because done nothing all the sudden we get to June/July they realize “oh yeah Almora and Descalso suck, with Schwarbs, Happ and Heyward all playing vs LHP our numbers vs them are bad, sure would be nice to have some complimentary RHH options to play over them but oh well. Who could’ve seen that?” Which is exactly what happened last year and largely why they had to add Castellanos.

- I don't understand the logic here. He's not a contact guy instead he's a low Ks guy and low Ks have little value but contact...like...what are the rules here? It just sounds like you're making up hoops for him to jump through that no single other player has to - "Positive WAR" for Pillar has added up to .3 beween 2018-2019. Almora's gone over 100 wRC+ v LHP in 2 of the past 3 years including 138 in 2017. Pillar last posted an OBP above .300 in 2016 when it was .303 which followed a .314...Almora has a .311 career OBP - Holt's been Almora by WAR + a 2 WAR 2015 since the latter joined the league with those same elite contact rates, lack of splits, the walks, and mostly bad defenses everywhere but LF which he's also sucked at since 2017 or so..Not sure why this makes him a *better* better for 2020 between them, why not Almora with a 2 WAR season since that's the big difference? Like Bote, Almora's the getting to be the same age is even a little younger than Holt was when he had his best seasons. I don't even think the margins are that high on these guys - They're not platooning Schwarber or a $20+ million Heyward to open the season, so again not something that has to happen before ST or even early into ST Aren’t you trying to say somehow his contact and low Ks make him valuable and it’s some sort of useful skill set he brings? Because it doesn’t mean that to me because the contact he makes is bad and it isn’t valuable contact. Not striking out isn’t a good thing when the trade off is soft GBs most of the time and taking no walks. Pillar has been worth 3.5 WAR between 2018-19. 4 of the last 5 years he’s put up 2+ WAR (or more value in 4 single years than Almora has his entire career WAR). Almora has regressed significantly, what he did in 2017 and up to June 2018 has little value or meaning to me. Pillar has been far more consistent (even if it’s nothing spectacular) for much longer and has proven he can carry value. He’s a 1.5- 3 win improvement over Almora. That’s significant for a marginal move. Holt is more a Descalso replacement than Almora, but again has a longer track record of carrying some value. You’re platoon comment makes no horsefeathering sense. Why wouldn’t they platoon those guys? They’re both awful vs LHP and they’ve done it before when the depth was there (Zobrist, Soler, Willy, Bryant, Castellanos, etc) have all played in the OF over them vs LHP. Not having a RHH option to pair with at least one, if not both of them is roster construction negligence if they’re actually trying to win and compete.

- He's the team's backup CF and 4th probably 5th when OF. He doesn't need to be in the top 100 overall MLB players, what even is that? He also owns a 17% K rate at a time the league K rate is around 23-24% IIRC - The batted profile and lack of success offensively even against LHP is why he is now a reserve OF and not a starting OF, which he's walked into the previous two seasons as. He did bad things, bad things happened back in a big demotion and smaller salary compared to his teammates - You offer literally no explanation for why those guys are safer bets to produce a little value beyond that producing very little value is something they've been able to do for some time now, which shouldn't make you optimistic about them. I don't see how Almora's 2019 is a career killer but we should be hot and heavy for Brock Holt after his 2017 or Pillar's .3 combined WAR over his past 800+ ML PAs....Souza didn't even play last year because he was hurt, you're looking for for the Cubs to sign this off-injury former COF to be signed as the team's backup CF...So not only are they not really actually safer bets to produce a little value, but some are worse bets. They're all low upside plays no matter what But with the teams current construction we clearly need RHH options to compliment a LHH heavy OF. I don’t like that Almora is that option. 4th OF’er or lower it doesn’t matter, he has a clear path to playing time and I (and others) don’t like that because we think he’s bad. The top 100 comment was in regards to his contact rate, not his overall ranking as a player. You said he’s a contact guy and he doesn’t even do it exceptionally well. I also don’t care about the lack of Ks because he makes garbage contact and also doesn’t walk. The low Ks bring little value. Pillar has been worth positive WAR every year since 2015, career wRC+ over 100 vs LHP and over 100 2 of last 3 years. Holt has been worth positive WAR 4 of the last 5 years and the last 2. He has elite contact rates, no extreme platoon splits, plays a few positions and actually takes some walks. So yeah that’s my evidence, amongst other things, that they’re safer bets than Almora and Descalso to produce positive value and be better than them. Even if it’s the margins of 1-2 wins. Souza is a gamble and I look at him more as a Heyward/Schwarbs platoon partner than a CF solution. The last full season he had he was a 3.8 win player, he’s a nice low risk gamble to give us a RHH OF.

I think there's some confusion. I understand what you're trying to tell me. It's any explanation for why these are facts and not just hyperbolic statements being repeated by the same guys who valued Kris Bryant at Zac Gallen, any one or maybe two of the D'Backs' top 10 prospects, and a little something else last week. I mean the solutions we're talking are Brock Holt, Kevin Pillar, or Billy Hamilton...these don't sound like solutions so much as new future problems with less or at best similar upside This offseason one of your pitches for a player (thinki t was Brandon Marsh) was that he makes contact and occupies CF, which in that post had it's own value. That's Almora, except he does it in the MLs and is already in house. Literally that skillset + RHH bat compliments the LHH and/or high K bats for Schwarber, Happ, and Heyward in front of him as well as their defensive skillsets He doesn’t make that high of contact, his 77% or so wasn’t even top 100 in MLB for guys with his PAs. His contact profile is garbage too, so I don’t care if he’s a high contact guy if it’s soft GBs every time. He also hasn’t hit LHP for 1.5 years. We’ve been over all this before. For some reason you think Almora is good (or at least useful) and myself and many others don’t and we think just adding 1-3 of Holt/Pillar/Souza types is a upgrade over him and others and are more useful. It’s not about those guys having upside even, it’s the fact they are safer bets to produce a little value and have a more established floor/certainty of production. I didn’t necessarily value KB at that, it was my guess what a trade would maybe be when they were rumored to be in on us. It was nothing more than internet conjecture. I do like Marsh as a prospect, I think he can be better than Almora (at least a strong side platoon guy) he also takes walks. Again talking about him was more conjecture than a guy I think we should go out of our way to get. When Willy, Q, and KB were all linked to the Angels he was simply a name that stood out to me when looking at things they could possibly offer. I wouldn’t be thrilled if we traded for him and just have him the CF job right now though, he’s clearly an unknown and if he has a contact profile like Almora I wouldn’t want him around the team either unless he was an elite defender/base runner/etc.

- He's 100% right in the sense that they don't fit into some arbitrary ideal, hence their smaller salaries, but literally their individual general skillsets tend to compliment the players around them or at least the ones they'll work with most. No one's really telling me how they don't But they don’t have complimentary skill sets because they have no skills. That’s what we’re telling you. Almora doesn’t compliment anyone well because he sucks at baseball, Descalso doesn’t compliment anyone well because he sucks at baseball. It’s that simple, they bring nothing to the table.

Hot take: picking *this* offseason and not the several before it to headhunt Almora, no longer the starting CF or even a starting OF, is forced and I have a hard time taking it seriously. It's not his fault, he's not the problem and *never has been* He absolutely is part of the problem and I’ve been saying he is a horsefeathers player for well over a year now and have wanted him gone going back to the last two offseasons. Bertz is 100% right in his statements above. The depth is kinda okay, especially if Nico is a thing. But still could use an add or two. How they all work together and compliment each other is lacking significantly and is a clear weakness that needs fixing.

Can we get a dislike button?

If this is how you feel about players like Bote, not really sure why, then Brock Holt of all players is not going to fix what ails you. I could see a situation where he's the best possible 26th man, but also think he could be a FA into ST when it's much easier to make that call. For now I think the FO should focus on moves that might actually move the needle for the Cubs I do not feel that way about Bote or Happ or Nico. I feel the depth is a sham from Descalso, Almora, Asuaje, Hernan, etc down and it’s easily upgradable. Holt, Souza, Pillar, Dyson, etc. the former should all be like 17th—25th guys on a 13 man position player depth chart. Not multiple ones being in line to break camp.

I just don't see the fit. He's basically been the same player as Bote for the past half decade now but with lower lows and worse defense. Bote himself has almost the exact same lines against RH and LH pitchers since coming up and is at the ages Holt had his best seasons, not a whole lot of incentive to look for a non-impact guy to take PAs away. Happ's got a 121 wRC+ / .357 wOBA against RHPs so he's not looking for a LHH partner and is probably the starting CF anyway where Holt couldn't help. Not going to find out if Hoerner's good by setting him up for only favorable matchups, that's the same trap as Almora all over again, but if he isn't they start Bote instead He’s better than Descalso and does the contact thing, with a 26-man roster I see how he can fit and be used. I’d rather have him than Descalso, Asuaje, Giambrone, Hernan Perez, Short, etc break camp on the roster. It’s just like years past with the “how are all these guys going to play?” questions were asked when we had real depth, it always works itself out and is good to have over this sham depth we have right now.

I saw something on Twitter that said kintzler blew his 30th save against them that would have given him a bonus. Yup in 2017, he finished with 29 and a significant bonus would kick in at 30. Though he did have 6 blown saves that year and it’s not like Mr. BABIP is typically untouchable.

Both them and maybe some Happ. Bote was way better vs LHP in 2018 and horsefeathers vs RHP. So jury is still out there, imo. Bote also may need to play some 3B with KB in the OF too. We don’t even know if Nico is good and he also may be in the CF mix (or may want him starting in AAA). Holt just adds some quality depth and it makes some sense for it to be a LHH capable of playing 2B (plus other spots). Just helps make the roster more versatile really and isn’t so much needing a platoon partner for guys at 2B, IMO.

The pre game and post game stuff and studio shows I don’t care about. Those are usually bad and they got some good names for that anyways that have ties to the org and have experience doing shows already (Pena, DeRosa, etc.). Throwing a third person in the booth with Len and JD is horsefeathering dumb and unnecessary though. They have great chemistry, they don’t need a wrench thrown in. If they want to throw a third person in the camera well or something like they’ve done with Glanville to chime in here and there, fine, but a third person in the booth for a whole broadcast is stupid. I think it depends on how it’s executed tbh. It doesn’t work on national broadcasts in large part because broadcasters on national telecasts... don’t really say much. The big value of color commentators outside of explaining more details of what’s happening on the field is providing anecdotes from playing and helping listeners understand what it’s like to be in a given situation. If this is done well it will be a lot of fun. You think Len and JD are lacking providing the viewer with any of this? Outside of the real technical things, which again stick someone in the camera well or concourse or something like Glanville who can chime in 3-5 times a game to get technical. They don’t need an addition to what’s a phenomenal booth for a full game.

If they’re going to extend Baez they’d almost certainly be over the CBT next year, which could be some justification for getting under this year given the penalties. They shouldn’t extend him then so they have more freedom to add talent. IMO.

The pre game and post game stuff and studio shows I don’t care about. Those are usually bad and they got some good names for that anyways that have ties to the org and have experience doing shows already (Pena, DeRosa, etc.). Throwing a third person in the booth with Len and JD is horsefeathering dumb and unnecessary though. They have great chemistry, they don’t need a wrench thrown in. If they want to throw a third person in the camera well or something like they’ve done with Glanville to chime in here and there, fine, but a third person in the booth for a whole broadcast is stupid.