CubsWin

I have a feeling one of either Murton or Cedeno will be moved in this trade. Beinfest is a very good GM. They will want someone who is ML ready. I will listen to updates on the local sports radio down here in S. FL. I'll let you know if I here anything different. What did you have to eat today? 'Cause I'm thinking that gut feeling is probably gas. There is no way Hendry is going to trade either Murton or Cedeno for Pierre. This is a salary dump for Florida. I will eat several plates of crow if Murton, Cedeno, Pie or Hill are involved in a trade for Juan Pierre.

Yeah, but we are comparing the proposed infield combo's of Nomar/Walker and Furcal/Cedeno. Any thoughts?

You know, I like where Poudre is going with this. Lets just look at our Lineup so far: 1b- DLee 2b- Walker SS- Nomar 3b- Ramirez LF- Murton Cf- ? RF- Giles C- Barrett That could equate to something like this: Murton Walker Lee Giles Ramirez Nomar Barrett Patterson Patterson is in red, because of course he is hypothetical. But look at that. from 1-7 (you can arrange them any way you like) that is a very solid lineup. You can live with patterson in the 8th spot. Let corey last you untill september (or whenever Pie is ready) and then you dont waste too much cash. You can use the money you save to go pick up a SP or build yourself a pen. I agree. This was my original idea. Resign Nomar. Don't trade Walker unless you get an offensive upgrade at 2B. But most of all, sign Giles. Then I started thinking about defense, especially infield defense on a team that tries employ a lot of sinkerball pitchers. Is the infield defense that Furcal and Cedeno will bring going to make enough difference to offset their lack of offense when compared to Nomar and Walker? What about Furcal's ability to stay healthy over Nomar? Where are we after we factor in missed games? I'm asking. How much importance should defense be given? Does anyone know where to find that runs created/runs defended stat? It's like the +/- in hockey but individualized to the isolated player. I think Walker was a -2 or something. Am I remembering right?

That was just the starting point. I doubt Hendry himself expecteded them to accept the offer. His next offer, if Washington's rebuttal wasn't too far from reality, may very well be something like CPatt, Mitre, and Hill for him, maybe some cash. If you're expecting Hendry to give his best, most realistic offers as a beginning point, then I would have to wonder if you understand the bargaining process that goes on here. He could also just be soliciting a response from them to help him judge the market for CFers before making a decision to pull the string on a deal for Pierre or someone else. And I don't think there was anything in the Gammons article that said it was Corey straight up for Wilkerson.

And the choir sings...Halleluja! Halleluja! Halleluja!

Those are Bill James projections. 21 HRs for Pie? Seriously? I'll take those numbers from Pie, Cedeno, and Murton. wow, .874 OPS. I'll say right now that if all three posted a +.800 OPS, this team would be vastly improved (assuming they actually got to play). How did James make his projections? He down a fifth of whisky, put his right hand on Moneyball and swore to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth about the upcoming season.

Well, if they want him to play RF, then no. Giles is soooo much better and won't cost the Cubs any players. Wilkerson is cheaper but it can't be a money thing, not with the amount the Cubs have to spend this year. But would an outfield of Wilkerson, Giles and Murton be sound defensively? Do the Cubs pitchers throw enough groundballs and Ks to make their limited defensive range less noticeable? With that outfield trio would we still have enough for Furcal? Or would you resign Nomar? I'm not certain what Wilkerson is slotted to make this coming season, but last year he earned 3,050,000 and Pierre earned 3,700,000. Corey earned 2.8 mil, so they are all in the same ballpark financially. If they can afford Giles, Furcal and Patterson, they should be able to afford Giles, Furcal and Wilkerson.

Everything I've ever read or heard about Murton defensively has put him squarely in LF. I'm not sure why, but no one seems to think he is good enough to play anywhere else effectively.

Well, if they want him to play RF, then no. Giles is soooo much better and won't cost the Cubs any players. Wilkerson is cheaper but it can't be a money thing, not with the amount the Cubs have to spend this year. But would an outfield of Wilkerson, Giles and Murton be sound defensively? Do the Cubs pitchers throw enough groundballs and Ks to make their limited defensive range less noticeable?

Hahaha, yeah Ft. Bliss is called that because...? I agree, Wilkerson would be nice but the outfield could be improved, hopefully not with Dunn, because, while the OBP might be nice, the 300ks might get annoying. Not only would an outfield with Dunn and Wilkerson strikeout a ton, but with Murton in LF, Wilkerson in CF and Dunn in RF, balls in the gap are going to the wall every time.

They are sort of direct opposites of each other. Wilkerson has power, not a lot of speed, has difficultly making contact, limited defensive range in CF but a really good arm. Pierre has no power, a lot of speed, rarely strikes out, has great range in CF but has no arm. They both bat lefty and have pretty good career OBP, but other than that, they are completely different, but both fill needs that the Cubs have. I'm sort of torn between the two at the moment, but you seem clearly against Wilkerson. Help me out. Whatcha got?

And now there is the news that Hendry is in talks with Washington about Wilkerson. What are people's thoughts on him? Good OBP. Good power. Limited range in CF but a good arm. Would trading Corey (and others, I assume) for Wilkerson and having Hairston back him up be better than Bradley and Patterson?

I like the way you are thinking, RTI. I think Lofton is worth a good long look. And clearly Pierre's career OBP, base-stealing ability and defensive range are worth acquiring for the right price. But the player with the most upside in this group is Milton Bradley. If the Cubs are able to sign Furcal and plug him in the lead-off spot, Murton could easily hit 2nd, if Baker can see the light, and Bradley could hit down in the order. There is one person missing from your list, however. Corey Patterson. I still think, unless Hendry can get something good for him, the Cubs are better off holding on to him and working with him to get him back on track. Then they can trade him, move him over to RF or do whatever they want with him, but trading him now seems like a panic move. With Patterson on the 25-man roster, I believe the best move would be to acquire Bradley. Apparently, he can be had for less than Pierre and the Cubs would have both Patterson and Bradley. If Bradley's attitude gets in the way, which it shouldn't with Baker as manager, then the Cubs have Corey as a back-up plan. Corey coming off the bench gives them a great defensive replacement late in a game and a left-handed bat with some pop as a pinch hitter. I don't think his lack of contact would make for an ideal pinch hitter, but if he improves his ability to recognize a pitch and make contact over the winter, this combo could be the best option due to both player's upside and the fact that with Patterson on the roster, Bradley would know his leash is short. But if Patterson is traded, it will likely be for Pierre, so I guess the topic on the table is do people think that Pierre/Hairston would be clearly better than Lofton/Patterson? And does the combo of Bradley/Patterson beat all of the above. Of course, there is one other option. According to Gammons, the Cubs are in talks with Washington to trade Corey and presumably others for Brad Wilkerson. Would he be everyone's first choice to play CF?

What is the point? Why should Hendry be fired for trading prospects for a solid if not spectacular rightfielder? It certainly makes more sense than signing Neifi and Glendon and he didn't get fired for that. I will be surprised if either Pie or Murton has even one season (albeit happily surprised) that surpasses Abreu's 2006. I don't know what came before in this thread so I'm only commenting on trading Pie and others for Abreu. While I agree that Abreu's offensive numbers in 2006 will likely be better than anything Pie will put up during his career, what we are really talking about is a couple of years of Abreu at his best or near his best for the entire career of Felix Pie and more importantly those years when Pie is young, great and cheap. I admit, I want Abreu bad because he would give the Cubs a shot at the WS in the next couple of seasons. But at this point, it is difficult to quantify just how many more chances at the WS Pie will give the Cubs. His OBP and plate discipline may never improve and he could be just a good bat with great glove and lots of speed and he would be that for the league minimum for several seasons giving the Cubs the opportunity to acquire Abreu or someone like him in free agency a year or two down the road. Or Pie could be the next boy wonder. He could improve his plate discipline, his power could continue to improve (.903 OPS at AA while a 20-year-old this season), and he could be a great player while at near league minimum for several seasons. I believe that last scenario is likely enough to not trade away Felix Pie even for a couple of years of Bobby Abreu.

Mench has some power, but the Cubs have that. What they need is people on base, and his OBP leaves a lot to be desired. I don't think Mench is the answer. He might be serviceable but not a difference maker.

They've already mentioned the Yankees. What more would they need to pump up the price? Plus, there are personal relationships and integrity and trust issues involved. If Bick said he was contacted by some team when he wasn't, it would damage his credibility with that team's GM. But why would we doubt this report in the first place? Giles is a perfect fit for what the Cubs are looking for, it is a forgone conclusion that Hendry will have at least contacted Bick about Giles.

He doesn't list his source and I don't know how reliable his information is, but I thought I'd throw it out there. Is there any reason to doubt that Hendry would be interested in Giles? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that he is good and a free agent. The question is, how badly does Hendry want him and how concerned is Hendry about Giles's age and the possibility of declining performance. I'm still convinced that Giles is the best option for the Cubs. He's a lefty. I believe he will continue to perform at a very high level at the plate for the next several seasons. His defense is already a bit suspect, but his arm is still pretty good making him a better fit for RF than Murton. And with either Corey or Pierre in CF, Giles's defense in RF will matter less. By the time his contract is winding down, Harvey could be emerging from the Cubs system and RF is his position so the timing is good. And, last but certainly not least, signing Giles would keep him from going to the Cardinals. Contrary to how some people feel on this board, Hendry is not mentally deficient. He may evaluate baseball talent in a different manner than some of us, but just because someone sees this from a different angle doesn't mean that they are wrong in doing so. So I'm not the least bit surprised that Hendry is reported to have contacted Giles's agent. However, signing Giles remains a remote possibility simply because Giles wants to be on a consistent contender and the Cubs have some work to do before he is likely to consider them one.

Well, yeah. Duh. :wink:

Thank you. I hope and pray the Cubs sign Brian Giles. I don't think it is very likely, but it would allow the Cubs to retain Pie and gamble on hitting the jackpot with him if/when he fulfills his potential.

Let me repeat what others have said, he's 20 years old. He was young for his league. He's already been selected to play in the Future's Game twice! That being said, I have no problem trading Pie for the right player. Pierre, however, isn't that player. Pierre would be a one year rental before you'd have to pony up the dough in competition with 29 other teams. Pie for Dunn? Yes. Pie for Vlad? Yes. Pie for Manny Ramirez? Yes. Pie for Teixeria? If Tex will move back to the outfield, yes. Pie for Wilkerson? I'd consider it if the Expos gave something back. Pie for Pierre? Hell no! Clearly Pie for Pierre is a terrible idea. But I'm not sure I would do any of the other deals either. I hate to admit this, but I'm split on whether I'd give up on Pie to get a really great already established hitter. Here's why. Everyone you listed, and even ones you didn't mention like Bobby Abreu have one or more of the following characteristics, their defense or speed isn't very good, they are past their prime or, as in the case of Wilkerson, they're a very good hitter but not a great one. Pie has a good chance to be the complete package financially that none of those players currently are...young, cheap and great. He also has a good chance to be an all around player. He may never have the power or RBI ability of Manny Ramirez, but he will have great speed, a great arm, great defenisve ability, a great bat, an increasingly improving batter's eye due to a great work ethic and a great desire to win as a team and great enjoyment of playing the game making him a natural born leader. If he fulfills on his promise, not having Pie when he is 22-29 years old will really, really hurt. On the other hand, getting a player like Abreu right now would give the Cubs a huge boost in their ability to win a World Series in the next couple of seasons. Like I said, I'm torn and I don't know if I should be. Is it worth gambling and waiting on Pie's potential to miss out on a shot at the World Series now by trading him for someone like Abreu? This is why I'm such a big fan of signing Giles, you can get Abreu like production, for the next couple of years at the plate anyway, without giving up a player like Pie.

IMO, Giles is not going to sit around and wait to see how the Cubs postseason plays out before making a decision. As far as Hendry's plan, I couldn't even begin to tell you what it is. Why not? Its in his own best interest.

I think his plan is to sign Furcal as quickly as possible, obviously. He then will check in with Brian Giles' agent and see if the addition of Furcal to the top of the Cubs order has made the Cubs the type of "contending team" that Giles wants to be on for the next 3-4 years. When Giles' agent says no, he will trade for Juan Pierre or sign Kenny Lofton. After hearing back from Giles' agent that Brian still thinks the Cubs won't be a contender, Hendry will sign the best pitcher he can afford, either a starter or reliever. He will then check back in with Giles' agent. If by some stroke of luck Hendry is able to improve the team enough to make Brian Giles want to play on it, he will throw every last dollar he can to sign him. If/when that fails, he will trade for the best RFer he can get. I think thats his plan. Whether it will give the Cubs a team that will contend next season...who knows?

Can you imagine signing someone of Matsui's ability away from the Yankees because they couldn't/wouldn't meet his asking price? :shock: That would certainly be a sign of the coming apocolypse. If he was signed by the Cubs and that led to them going to the World Series, that would another sign of the coming apocolypse. Man, that thing is going to right around the corner!

its funny because it's true. Oddly, no one will be laughing if it does come true. :-k If Hendry fails to bring in an impact bat for RF, fails to get Furcal (or Nomar) for SS, and allows Neifi to do anything other than come off the bench and/or bat 8th when he does, then I will be shocked if they make the post-season. I mean, no one expected the White Sox to be as good as they were, so strange things happen in baseball, but I would be floored if the Cubs made the playoffs without those three things happening.

We discussed it in another thread but it's probably just posturing. I agree. Furcal and his agent know that ruling out the possibility of signing with the richest team in the league is not a good idea. That is if Furcal and his agent like money, of course.