CubsWin

YUCK YUCK YUCK!! So that means we are probably trading Jerome. The trade of Williams better bring in a big time bat because having Rusch as our #5 is asking for problems. Id 100x's rather have Jerome. As 5th starters go, what makes you so sure that Rusch is so terrible? Going back to 2004, he was quite good for a 5th starter and last season, out of 19 starts only 4 or 5 of them were bad. The rest were quite good. I know Glendon's numbers from last season overall were nothing to write home about, but if you look more closely, he was great in April and May and the first week or so of June and then he lost something. His numbers were down the rest of June, all of July and August, but whatever it was that was off, he fixed it because in September, he was back to performing like he was in 2004. If it is accurate that Glendon figured out what was wrong in the middle part of last season and fixed it, then he would be a 5th starter capable of posting an ERA in the mid-3s or even lower. Now, that might not be accurate. I guess we will have to find out.

An excellent,fair & rational post. It's a nice change around here. Wow, thanks for the kind words. I agree that rationality is in short supply on this message board sometimes, but I also think that posters have the freedom to be as irrational as they want to be, if they so choose. I only wish that when presented with the facts and stats, that those facts and stats would be remembered and incorporated into their opinion making process from that point on.

Even though many on this board, myself included until I took a closer look, would consider that Eyre really has only had one good season, the stats would indicate otherwise. From 2002-2004 (not including that supposedly one good season), Eyre allowed batters to hit .229/.308/.342 against him. Lefties hit .200/.264/.302 while righties were a bit better at .252/.343/.375. He was fairly consistent throughout the year except for the month of August for some reason. But in the stretch month of September in 2002-04, he posted an ERA of 1.17, a WHIP of 1.20 while striking out more than a batter per inning. The numbers also show steady improvement since being diagnosed with attention deficit disorder in 2002 at the age of 30 indicating that with improved ability to focus, he is figuring out how to be more and more successful. His WHIP has steadily improved every year since the diagnosis. In 2004, Eyre showed the ability to get righties out at a good enough rate to be used as more than just a loogy. That ability continued through last season when Scott shutdown lefty batters to tune of .182/.270/.242 while righties could only manage .213/.290/.319. Eyre has also shown durability. He has appeared in 70, 74, 83 and 86 games over the last four seasons respectively. On a team that has been snake bit by injury the past couple of seasons, including in the bullpen (Remy, JoBo, etc.) his durability will be a valuable commodity and something a lot of posters on this board criticized Hendry for not having enough of on the roster last season. Veteran players get paid more than younger ones, it is a fact of life. Eyre has paid his dues and steadily improved over the last three seasons. He is a lefty reliever who is more than just a loogy and has shown the ability to perform well under pressure (he faced over 160 batters in "close and late" conditions last year, and they batted .195 against him). Williamson is still a question mark and after him, the only veteran in the pen is Dempster. The Cubs needed a veteran presence in their bullpen and that is going to cost a few million a year to get. So is Eyre a good signing at this price? If he performs at an average between his 2004 and 2005 performances then, yes. If he reverts to 2002, then no. The question remains, after spending 2.5 million on Perez, 3 mill on Rusch and another 3 mill+ on Eyre, how much money does Hendry have to spend on a SS, a RF and a starter? A lot of that depends on what the Trib's payroll will be next season. How much will the bleacher expansion affect the Cubs ability to spend money? Is it fair to say that the Cubs can't afford 9 mill at SS and 11 mill in RF? I don't think any one of us has the data necessary to make such a judgement with any amount of authority. At this point, we can only hope.

I disagree with this statement. Clearly, the Remlinger signing didn't work out. He was good and performed well under pressure in '03, but then his age set in and so did injuries. He never performed well after that. Giving a three year deal to a 37 year old is clearly a risky move. LaTroy was worth the money spent on him...as a set up man. He had great stuff and got the job done...as a set up guy. He didn't have the mindset to be a closer, and he admitted it. Yet, he was used that way and his failures as a closer is how we remember him most. However, the money spent on him was well worth it by virtue of the Giants giving up someone like Williams to get him. In his time with the Cubs, Hawkins posted a 2.76 ERA and his strong performances far outweighed in sheer volume his weak performances. So it is inaccurate and unfair to him and Jim Hendry to say that his was a bad signing. Eyre is 33 at the time of this signing. Remlinger was 4 years older. Eyre's struggles during the early part of his career were in large part due to undiagnosed attention deficit disorder. Since being diagnosed and properly treated, his career has turned around. Here is what STATS, Inc. had to say about him after the 2004 season... I don't think he is being paid like a "great" reliever. Check B.J. Ryan's contract for that. But he is being paid like a reliable, veteran reliever who is more than just a lefty-specialist. After taking a closer look at his stats, they support that he is exactly that.

I have an ignore button? Is that a premium thing?

They haven't been. In fact, the signing of Eyre hasn't been reported yet. It was a report on WSCR that said the Cubs could sign Eyre by the end of the day. The report apparently mentioned nothing about terms, check me if I'm wrong. That is what we know, and, more importantly, what we don't know. The rest is, well...

Rotoworld's being awful nice to Leicester. He had a 1.49 WHIP in almost 600 minor league innings, and his Major League totals are almost mirrors of his minor league numbers. He'll be 26 next year and is behind Wuertz, Williamson, and Novoa for the RH middle relief/setup spot(s). That said, this isn't a bad gamble for the Rangers, since Leicester does have decent stuff. I think it is less of them being nice to Leicester and just not nice to the Cubs. Rarely do I read anything positive about the Cubs coming out of Rotoworld.

He was seriously our best reliever for a long time in 2004. I don't know what happened to him, but I hope he figures it out in Texas. Wonder who the player will be. Alan Benes? It will likely be someone who won't be put on the 40-man roster. A b-level prospect from A-ball or something. I doubt it would be anyone with major league experience like Benes. I don't think Hendry is attempting to improve his bullpen with this move. I think he is clearing roster space. Could be wrong though, thats for sure.

One player for five capital letters! Sounds like a good deal to me. :wink: Leicester wasn't going to be utilized by the Cubs this season anyway. Clearing room off of the 40-man is a good idea right now. To get something, anything, in return for a guy who was going to walk is always a good thing.

"Be careful, don't trip while you're backtracking." sounds fairly offensive to me. I think the mods will back me up on this one. If not you'll have my full appologies. How in the world is that offensive? I've seen much worse from more of the regular posters and it's not been called out. Good Lord, I think the sensitivity meter needs to be turned down a notch around here sometimes. Things don't need to always be taken so seriously. Its not so much offensive as it is a personal and rude comment, a slap directed at the writer of a post and not directed at the content of a post. We have an agreement to criticize the content of a post and not the writer on this board. I asked nicely for him/her to please read more carefully and he/she responds by accusing me of backtracking and telling me not to trip. It was rude and uncalled for.

So what you are saying is that the only way a reasonable person could read that statement is to assume that the person who wrote is completely unreasonable and not give them the benefit of the doubt? Did you write a post asking me if thats what I meant before making your assumption and attacking the idea you mistakenly thought I was putting forward? You also assumed that by saying the Cubs would have no better chance at making the playoffs than they did this season that I was saying that they wouldn't make it at all. I thought they had a pretty decent chance of making the playoffs with Dubois in LF and Burnitz in RF given Nomar and the pitching staff. So...

It likely would be, but not at the price he will probably be able to command. I like Howry. I wanted him to be the guy the Cubs got in the trade back in '98 (and I didn't want them to trade their 1st round pick to get him). I think he can continue to be good for a few more years at least. I'd like to have him, but not if he is going to cost 3 mill a year for 3 years.

By the way, does anyone know Rafael Furcal's actual birthdate? The Baseball Cube has him being born on 8/24/80. ESPN has him being born on 8/24/78. MLB.com and Baseball Reference have him being born on 10/24/77. :-k

Please, show me the quote then. And you can stop be rude while you are at it unless you are wanting a visit from Modzilla. I said that if Hendry signed Furcal and just anyone to play RF, then the Cubs wouldn't have any better chance at making the playoffs than they did in '05. And I stand ready to civily debate the validity of that statement.

You're taking things out of context. I'll make you a deal. I give the hyperbole a rest when you stop reading hyperbole into my statements. Go back and re-read, please. I never said that they had no chance of making the playoffs. I said their chances wouldn't improve much over the kind of chances they had last season. If the Cubs had had "some luck, healthwise" last year and had just average performances from LF, CF and the bullpen, they probably would have been in the hunt. I also never said that Hendry should shut down for the off-season. That was you. What I did say was that if all Hendry got was Furcal, then the Cubs wouldn't be improved very much at all. (Hey! That rhymes!) I never said that if he got Furcal, another great starter, another great reliever, Wilkerson in RF and the team stayed healthy... Please, read more carefully before reacting.

Why not let Ronny start at SS and spend the money on a difference maker? There's also guys like Lugo out there who is a small step down from Furcal, but much less expensive. I love how you don't even consider Furcal a difference maker. I'm sure there are some people in Atlanta that might disagree with you. On this Cubs team, Furcal alone won't be a difference maker. I think that is what Goony has been trying to say. If the Cubs sign Furcal but miss out on a Giles-like upgrade in RF, the Cubs won't have any better of a shot at making the playoffs than they did this season. That's insane. If we don't get Giles or someone better we're not making the playoffs? Healthy rotation, bullpen help, and we make the playoffs no matter who we sign for right. Careful, nick23, thats not what I said. I don't see the Cubs chances of making the playoffs getting noticeably better if all they do is sign Furcal and get just anyone to play RF. The Cubs had a decent chance of making the playoffs in '05, but injuries to 2 of their 3 best pitchers and their starting SS, 3B and 2B, poor performances from some of their bullpen guys, their CFer and LFers, and some poor decisions by their manager made their decent chance evaporate.

Why not let Ronny start at SS and spend the money on a difference maker? There's also guys like Lugo out there who is a small step down from Furcal, but much less expensive. I love how you don't even consider Furcal a difference maker. I'm sure there are some people in Atlanta that might disagree with you. A career 750 OPS player is not a difference maker, especially when you have a minimum wage guy on your team that would probably put up a 700 OPS pretty easily. A difference maker is a guy with a 900+ OPS, or if you are a SS, you better be an 825-850 OPS guy at least. I agree that a player who puts up a 750 OPS is not a difference maker. Especially on a Cubs team like this one that really needs Brian Giles or someone like him in their line-up. However, I believe that a 750-760 OPS would be the worst that Furcal is likely to produce over the next several seasons. In 2002, he put up a .710 OPS. But since then, he has put up OPSs of .795, .758, .777. Be that as it may, a SS that has an OPS below .800 still isn't a difference maker with the bat. But what happens when we factor in his range and arm at SS and his ability to steal bases efficiently? I agree that he alone will not improve the Cubs very much, but he is better than his OPS makes him look when the bigger picture is considered.

Why not let Ronny start at SS and spend the money on a difference maker? There's also guys like Lugo out there who is a small step down from Furcal, but much less expensive. I love how you don't even consider Furcal a difference maker. I'm sure there are some people in Atlanta that might disagree with you. On this Cubs team, Furcal alone won't be a difference maker. I think that is what Goony has been trying to say. If the Cubs sign Furcal but miss out on a Giles-like upgrade in RF, the Cubs won't have any better of a shot at making the playoffs than they did this season.

Why not let Ronny start at SS and spend the money on a difference maker? There's also guys like Lugo out there who is a small step down from Furcal, but much less expensive. I have agreed with everything you've written in this thread so far. A question though, with Cedeno still somewhat of an unknown offensively, are you sure you want to take the risk of him hitting .240/.310/.390 as your starting SS? That would seem to be his floor. I think he'll do much better than that, but I thought Dubois would do much better than he did also. Another question if Cedeno plays 2B, Murton plays LF and Pie plays CF starting in '07 and they do so for the next 4 years rather cheaply, wouldn't the Cubs still be able to afford to give raises to players like Prior, Zambrano, Lee and Ramirez even with Furcal on the books for 9 mill?

According to the Chicago Tribune, the Cubs have contacted the agent for lefty reliever Scott Eyre. Previously a White Sox starter, Eyre was converted to a reliever in '99 but still struggled. His ERA became respectable in 2001, but he posted pretty bad WHIPs every year until last season with the Giants. The numbers suggest that Eyre's performance last season (2.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) is the exception and not the norm. The White Sox are also looking at Eyre and might be willing to deal Damaso Marte to make room for him. Interestingly, Marte's fortunes are almost the exact opposite of Eyre's. Marte has put up stellar WHIPs from 2001-04 (1.27, 1.03, 1.05, 1.22) but struggled big time last season (1.72). Of course, these numbers suggest that Marte's struggles are the exception and not the norm. This would appear to be the classic situation where numbers don't tell the whole story. Does anybody have any scouting information that would shed some light on who is more likely to perform well in '06? Has Eyre truely turned a corner? Has Marte lost it or has he identified what caused his struggles last season and corrected it? Thoughts?

See you in April, Warren. Here's a tissue. If you're right, I'll probably be crying, too.

I can think of two possible reasons why this report was written, assuming it is accurate. One, Hendry is attempting to let Furcal's agent think that the Cubs are exploring other options at SS because Hendry feels/knows that the Cubs current offer is the best one Furcal has on the table. It is Hendry's way of saying take it or leave it, we aren't raising our offer without actually saying that. Or two, Hendry is a complete and utter idiot. I'll let you decide which one sounds more plausible.

I think it is important to look at the context in which the decision to bring up Pie was made. The Cubs were desperate for offense from LF and CF. RF was producing only moderately well, but it wasn't nearly as desperate of a situation as CF and LF. Murton proved to be ready without any AAA experience but he already had the plate discipline. Pie probably wouldn't have performed very well once pitchers found his weaknesses, but he could have provided a spark for the rest of the team. Who knows? We also don't know that just because Hendry was thinking of bringing him up in July with Murton that he intended him to remain with the Cubs for the rest of the season no matter what. It could have just as easily been a "lets give him a look and see how he does" situation. So assuming that Hendry thinks Pie is fully ready for the bigs and is going to bringing him too soon simply because he was going to bring him up last July is unwarranted. This is the problem with Hendry - he would have burned an option year on a 21 year old if he sent him back down (is that how that works?). No way should Pie be up as a starter this year. I realize that it would have cost an option year, but is that too high of a price to pay to do everything you can to win? Would you rather the Cubs GM not do everything he can to help the big club win? Was there another player in the minors after Murton and Cedeno that would have helped the Cubs more than Pie?

I think it is important to look at the context in which the decision to bring up Pie was made. The Cubs were desperate for offense from LF and CF. RF was producing only moderately well, but it wasn't nearly as desperate of a situation as CF and LF. Murton proved to be ready without any AAA experience but he already had the plate discipline. Pie probably wouldn't have performed very well once pitchers found his weaknesses, but he could have provided a spark for the rest of the team. Who knows? We also don't know that just because Hendry was thinking of bringing him up in July with Murton that he intended him to remain with the Cubs for the rest of the season no matter what. It could have just as easily been a "lets give him a look and see how he does" situation. So assuming that Hendry thinks Pie is fully ready for the bigs and is going to bringing him too soon simply because he was going to bring him up last July is unwarranted.

Isn't Pie 19 or 20? Besides I'm at a point that I don't care about the prospects anymore I just want to win a damn WS no matter what cost. well it hurts to know the fact that hendry's up to something weird. also i cant see this team winning a world series soon ( i hope they do but not with hendry and baker!) finally i would like to see the cubs trade for pierre than use the rest of the money to sign B.giles and also a good/ descent starter>>> MILLWOOD>> BURNETT>.................... but do you guys think that hendry will sign furcal even after the pierre deal????????? Nothing weird going on here, folks. And Pierre will not block Pie as he will be a free agent after '06, if I'm not mistaken. This is a one year rental to provide the Cubs with a bona fide lead-off hitter and solid defensive CF albeit with a questionable arm. If the Cubs had a guy with a .350 career OBP and legit base stealing abilities leading off last season, Lee would have had over 120 RBI. Because it is a combination of a salary dump for the Marlins and a one year rental for the Cubs, the minor leaguers involved should not include anyone the Cubs will miss (Murton, Cedeno, Pie, Hill, Harvey, Pawelek, etc.).