His velocity increased to 92 MPH, which isn't impressive in today's game from a RHSP - definitely not "possibly better than Lester and worth more than Teheran" good when combined with his lackluster track record and extreme reliance on a splitter this year. The obvious angle from there is that Teheran doesn't throw hard either - but Teheran at 25 with 3 seasons of 180+ innings under his belt owns a 10.33% career whiff rate on his fastball, high end [expletive], to Shoemaker's 6.87%. Throw in the extremely high prospect pedigree of Teheran just because, arrived at 20 after twice ranking 5th on BA's top 100, and it is not even a contest between the two. Arrieta was a bigger, better talent across the board and acquired at 27. He was the ROY in 2014, his numbers and peripherals were quite strong in 2014, yeah 2015 was a disaster, but the increased velocity and increased usage of the splitter has been successful in 2016. That splitter is creating a lot of swing in miss for him. His contact rates are down across the board, first strike rate is up and so is swinging strike rate. Unless you're worried about the health of his arm throwing that many splitters, I don't see the issue. I'd rather spend on him than a kid sporting a mirage of a 2.46ERA thanks to a .209babip and 82.9% strand rate. That 4.03xFIP just isn't all that appealing to me.