While he does beat his FIP it's usually by .4 or .5. I"m not about to believe in a guy whose current babip is .040 lower than any other he's ever had in his career and whose strand rate is also the highest of his career. When the numbers start evening out I suspect he's a 3.2-3.5ERA pitcher which is nice, but I suspect they want value like he's a young top of the rotation pitcher and he just isn't. Yeah, like Tom said....why is this a bad thing? Outperforming his FIP is an actual skill when he's done it in every year of his career, it's not a luck thing. I also don't know how you can say he's a 3.2-3.5 ERA pitcher when he's only been at the exact bottom of that range in his 1st year of the 3 of 4 strong years of his career. He's 25 and a top 25 pitcher in baseball. I like him because he's under contract (mistakenly said arb eligible after next year), he's a top 25 SP, who's young, and durable and could conceivably get a little better with Bosio. Would be a good guy to have in place when Lackey is a FA/retires and insurance in case they can't/won't pay Arrieta in a couple years. While I'd rather give up the type of package it would take to get Fernandez or Carrasco or Gray, I don't know that any of those guys will come available. I never meant to imply that outperforming FIP is a luck thing, especially when given years of the same results. All I'm saying is that at some point I don't buy it being totally legit either. When a guy is sporting a babip that much lower than any other babip in his career and while his LD% is down, he's giving up more hard hit balls this year.