DenverCubs

I'd like to hear your arguments. This is what I said in another thread: My argument for the Diamondbacks is that just about their entire lineup consists of highly regarded prospects playing their in their first and second MLB seasons last year. Considering that they managed to have the best record in the NL last year despite their prospects learning on the job, I would expect vast improvement from their lineup. If they produce like last year, you are right. But they obviously got a lot better in SP, essentially replacing Livan Hernandez with Haren and Petit with Randy Johnson. FYI, the Diamondbacks team OPS by month: April: .714 May: .757 June: .700 July: .706 August: .715 September: .811 Playoffs vs. Cubs: .890 The problem with the D'Backs is offensively, they don't have one sure thing. Their whole team is like 23 years old. They could be very good if they all take big steps, but they could be terrible if none of them do (offensively at least). More than likely, they will be below average with an great starting rotation. Randy Johnson will probably be hurt at some point though. I can see them being in a lot of close games this year, so if they get lucky/manage their bullpen perfectly or whatever made them outperform their pythag last year they can be a contender, but it seems unlikely. At least to me.

Here's the real question...Would you rather be rich, or stupid?

who said they were random? we haven't a clue what they're factoring, how much weight they're giving it, what they're omitting, and still it's used as gospel of a player's true value. it's laughable. i guess i'm more critical. what statistic do you prefer that gives an estimation how much a player is worth? not just hitting, but value for their fielding, and baserunning too. none exist yet. not even close. Actually, one does. It's called WARP-(1,2,3) What it does is considers all the aspects of a player's game and makes an educated evaluation with the most complete information we're presented with.

Flerm-22 perhaps

1. Mets 2. (tie) Brewers, Cubs, D'Backs, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Rockies 9. Braves Contender Line 10. Reds 11. Cardinals 12. Giants 13. Astros 14. Nationals 15. Pirates 16. Marlins

Something like Murton and Dempster seems fair to me.

I just daydreamed for like an hour about trading for Bedard and Roberts while keeping Hill, signing Kenny Lofton, DeRosa starting 100 games at SS with average defense, Soto and Fuku sharing the ROY honors and A-Ram, Sori and Lee all having 35 HR's and close to 900 OPS's. Damn I'm a sucker.

He hit .293 which would've been towards the top for this team. Not to mention the 60+ SBs he brings to the table. I'd rather have Pie in CF just for the sake of developing a young guy by letting him play. But if he goes, I'd take Pierre over w/e trash you have in mind (Byrd?) any day. You should have to put a spoiler alert on that...I was eating.

I just saw this...let's hear about the four guys the Mets are giving up from someone who knows a lot more than me.

Why the hell isn't Griffey wearing pants???

Because there were ~10-15 flyball outs he made last year that would have been HRs at virtually any other park. HRs increase OBP. Look at his ABs each of those years. Extrapolate the ABs (roughly 410-440 per season for 2004-2006) to the 2007 AB total (611 ABs) and you get 23 home runs per season in those years. Since you are already at cubs.com, it will be easier for you to do this exercise. Click on any cubs player and go to their batted ball chart. Print out the scale of Wrigley. Go to the padres mlb website and do the same for Khalil Green showing fly outs, doubles, and triples. Overlay the Wrigley cut out over the Petco cutout. 2005 and 2007 specifically show you how much Petco hurts him. Hes a fly ball hitter in a fly ball pitchers dream park. Moving to Wrigley would be heaven for him. (Obviously this exercise doesnt account for wall height or wind, but its pretty shocking nonetheless). I just did that...it looks like 6-7 more HR's and maybe a couple of fly-ball outs would have been out of play in 2007 and at least 11 HR's in 2005. He hit sooo many balls to the wall in right-center. Left, not right. But yeah, its a lot. Roughly hes been in the top 20 players in the game in FB% the last three years. I guess you might call that left-center...oops.

Are PECOTA predictions coming out this week or something?

Because there were ~10-15 flyball outs he made last year that would have been HRs at virtually any other park. HRs increase OBP. Look at his ABs each of those years. Extrapolate the ABs (roughly 410-440 per season for 2004-2006) to the 2007 AB total (611 ABs) and you get 23 home runs per season in those years. Since you are already at cubs.com, it will be easier for you to do this exercise. Click on any cubs player and go to their batted ball chart. Print out the scale of Wrigley. Go to the padres mlb website and do the same for Khalil Green showing fly outs, doubles, and triples. Overlay the Wrigley cut out over the Petco cutout. 2005 and 2007 specifically show you how much Petco hurts him. Hes a fly ball hitter in a fly ball pitchers dream park. Moving to Wrigley would be heaven for him. (Obviously this exercise doesnt account for wall height or wind, but its pretty shocking nonetheless). I just did that...it looks like 6-7 more HR's and maybe a couple of fly-ball outs would have been out of play in 2007 and at least 11 HR's in 2005. He hit sooo many balls to the wall in left-center.

Oh man, you're leaving? We didn't even get to use VORP and EqA yet I used VORP in this thread (not pertaining to Greene/Theriot though). Does VORP take park factors into account?

So it's kind of assuming that 20% of the times you reach base are anything more than a single or walk?

I'm gonna jerk off SO HARD!!!!

These are career stats: Jones: .263 / .342 / .497 Ichiro: .333 / .379 / .437 That's pretty damn close, and it includes Andruw's 07 which was by far his worst since he was like 20.

The answer to this question has no importance. Ichiro happens to be like the best guy in the last 50 years at hitting a single. Whenever I argue with people about how batting average isn't that important they say something like: "But what about Ichiro, I'd rather have Ichiro than (insert slugger coming off of his worst year ever)". Ichiro is an anomaly. That said, I'll take Andruw's best year over Ichiro's...by a hair.

So based on your "numbers" Theriot is better, but you would rather have Green, but Green is god awful. OK, you've convinced me. Because I know it's not just about the numbers, but these guys are insisting on me including numbers into it. I dont think Theriot is good, but I dont think Greene is much of an upgrade. You gotta take into account future projections as well. Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Ryan Theriot ss 28 .266 .324 .348 143 492 71 131 25 3 3 42 41 51 25 4 Khalil Greene ss 28 .249 .300 .442 139 523 73 130 37 2 20 77 36 111 5 0 Chone Figgins# 3b 30 .283 .354 .386 141 552 92 156 25 7 6 58 60 91 41 12 Kenny Lofton* cf 41 .279 .340 .356 98 348 55 97 11 5 2 37 33 32 17 4 So Figgins projects @ 44 OPS points over Lofton with comparable defense, and Greene projects @ 50 OPS points over Theriot (with 81 games in PETCO) and much better defense. There, now were taking projections into account. we're taking projections with greene in petco....when hes not in petco if hes a cub BRILLIANT! Wow...even when someone's on your side... Plus I noted that they were at PETCO to point out that it was flawed...making him look worse than he is. When you can find me full season projections for Greene without 81 games at PETCO, post them.

There is a real possibility that it is.

So based on your "numbers" Theriot is better, but you would rather have Green, but Green is god awful. OK, you've convinced me. Because I know it's not just about the numbers, but these guys are insisting on me including numbers into it. I dont think Theriot is good, but I dont think Greene is much of an upgrade. You gotta take into account future projections as well. Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Ryan Theriot ss 28 .266 .324 .348 143 492 71 131 25 3 3 42 41 51 25 4 Khalil Greene ss 28 .249 .300 .442 139 523 73 130 37 2 20 77 36 111 5 0 Chone Figgins# 3b 30 .283 .354 .386 141 552 92 156 25 7 6 58 60 91 41 12 Kenny Lofton* cf 41 .279 .340 .356 98 348 55 97 11 5 2 37 33 32 17 4 So Figgins projects @ 44 OPS points over Lofton with comparable defense, and Greene projects @ 50 OPS points over Theriot (with 81 games in PETCO) and much better defense. There, now were taking projections into account.

So based on your "numbers" Theriot is better, but you would rather have Greene, but Greene is god awful. OK, you've convinced me.

I guess he considers Pie in the deal? Hey buddy, Didn't you know this is the "argue about whether Ryan Theriot is really bad or just kinda bad" thread? Oh wait...

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/search/label/phil%20rogers This was a pretty good FJM...Phil Rogers has been repeatedly stupid.

Hanley Ramirez disagrees I did use the word "if" Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Hanley's defense wipe out about 75% of his offensive wins, similar to Braun? While I don't know that to be true or untrue, they did say "offensive SS," FWIW. Just cause he stands in between 3rd and 2nd base with a glove on his hand, and is penciled in as 6 on the scoresheet, it doesn't make him a good defensive shortstop. There we go.