davearm2
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Everything posted by davearm2
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Couldn't a guy just say, "OK if you want me to waive my 10/5 rights, then you need to add a NTC to my contract"? They sure could, and they'd probably get it. But they're using their leverage on that instead of something else which might have a more tangible value... say an assignment bonus. Those aren't mutually exclusive. It's not like you are allowed only one concession. They could be mutually exclusive. Leverage only extends so far. Leverage extends as far as you want if a guy would prefer not to be traded in the first place. All he has to say is, "I'll just stay unless you give me what I want." Heck Oswalt appears to be doing exactly this right now. And he'd be just as much in the driver's seat with just 10/5.
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Couldn't a guy just say, "OK if you want me to waive my 10/5 rights, then you need to add a NTC to my contract"? They sure could, and they'd probably get it. But they're using their leverage on that instead of something else which might have a more tangible value... say an assignment bonus. Those aren't mutually exclusive. It's not like you are allowed only one concession.
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Couldn't a guy just say, "OK if you want me to waive my 10/5 rights, then you need to add a NTC to my contract"?
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If you trade Lilly right now for prospects, the financial outlay is essentially zero. If you keep Lilly, offer arb, then use the comp picks, the financial outlay is on the order of $5M bucks -- Lilly's salary for the remainder of 2010, plus the cost to sign a first- and a second-round pick. Along the way, things could be screwed up either by Lilly accepting arb, or by the draftees not signing. Those draftees better be significantly better than the prospects available right now to justify that expense and risk. Nobody's going to want to hear that side, but it's definitely a factor in the decision.
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He's also been a headache in the clubhouse. Link I want no part of him. If Figgins has been a headache in the clubhouse, then what does getting put on the restricted list for a month and being sent to anger management qualify as? ;) Anyway to answer my own question, I doubt the Mariners would be interested unless the Cubs were sending a bunch of $$$ with Z. I don't put a lot of stock in Fangraphs' dollar valuations, but when comparing two guys, the flaws in the system affect both guys, leaving the relative comparison mildly useful. With that caveat, since 2006 Figgins has been worth $52.6M and Zambrano $57.9M. Given the disparity in what each guy is owed moving forward (2/$36M for Z, 3/$26+ vesting option for Figgins), it sure seems like the trade would be a win for the Cubs. And that's without considering the Cubs have better depth at SP than 2B.
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Carlos Zambrano's brouhaha and apology
davearm2 replied to Outshined_One's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Anyone else bothered by the two days? That really underlines the immaturity and lack of responsibility involved IMO. Zambrano could've saved everyone a whole lot of trouble if he had shortened that to two hours (i.e., in the clubhouse right after the game). -
How about Zambrano for Figgins? Who hangs up first on that one? Might be a decent face-saving exit strategy for both sides.
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That's what I would have thought before the Haren trade as well. I would have laughed if I was told Haren would be traded for a package including a 30 year old pitcher with an xFIP close to 4.7 who strikes out around 5 batters per game. I'd be stunned if they were looking to spin Haren off and if they valued Lee that highly, but I was stunned they got him for a package built around Joe Saunders as well. i can guarantee you there are a couple of teams that are pissed off that the d'backs only got that in return because they could have easily trumped the angels' offer without too much damage to their system. Probably. I never know how much these trades tell us about the GM giving the player away for very little or if it tells us more about what the "real" value of the player on the market is. Provided the GM is competent, it reflects the "real" value of the player on the market. Naturally there's also a ton of subjectivity involved in evaluating the prospects. Perhaps the D'Backs like these young guys more than the mainstream fan or expert analyst. It's the same phenomenon we saw with the Hayden Simpson pick (to name just one).
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That's what I would have thought before the Haren trade as well. I would have laughed if I was told Haren would be traded for a package including a 30 year old pitcher with an xFIP close to 4.7 who strikes out around 5 batters per game. I'd be stunned if they were looking to spin Haren off and if they valued Lee that highly, but I was stunned they got him for a package built around Joe Saunders as well. i can guarantee you there are a couple of teams that are pissed off that the d'backs only got that in return because they could have easily trumped the angels' offer without too much damage to their system. I've never understood comments like this. Why didn't those "pissed off" teams go ahead and trump the offer then? Did the D'Backs' GM not do proper due diligence in calling around to gauge interest in his guy? Did the GMs of these "pissed off" teams not pick up the phone and call Arizona? The only way your explanation is plausible is if one or more GM is either lazy or asleep at the switch. Either that, or the GMs of the "pissed off" teams screwed themselves by not putting their best offer on the table.
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Especially not if their motivation is to save money.
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Nitpick: OPS isn't a statistic. It's a metric. If there's a meaningful distinction between the two, I'm at a loss to identify it.
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Type-A draft picks. If they're desperate and will take a #4 type pitcher for Werth, you can get Werth for an expendable pitcher you wouldn't mind parting with (who likely wouldn't be that great if he's a #4) and let Werth walk and take draft picks. I honestly don't care or not, but the thought did pop in my mind. So the plan is to give up a #4 pitcher, spend a bunch of money this year on a guy that has no position, offer arbitration and risk being in the same situation all of next year, all for a couple draft picks that might not even be in the first 30 (assuming Werth remains a Type A despite a poor 2010)? Seems a whole lot easier, cheaper and much less risky just to draft an extra overslot first-round talent or two in the 2nd-10th rounds.
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WTF are Cub fans doing craving Jason Werth?!? I thought everyone wanted Hendry to sell.
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No OBP is more valuable because it has a higher correlation with runs scored.
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That's not really the reason. That's like saying dollars are worth more than yen because dollars come in denominations of up to $100 and and Yen up to 10,000. The scale has nothing to do with it. If you had $100 and 10,000 yen in your pocket, would you rather have me hand you one more dollar or one more yen? One more dollar. But the arbitrary number values assigned to the currency is only tangential to the reason. Maybe dollars and yen were a bad example. Let's try this one: Nigerian Naira come in denominations up to 1,000. Would you rather have 1 dollar or 10 Naira? Anyway, currency is probably a bad example all around, so let's try some baseball ones: Stolen base percentage is scaled to 1. SLG is scaled to 4. In which stat is a point more valuable? ERA is scaled to infinity, balk percentage is scaled to 1. Look as we all know, OPS is OBP *plus* SLG. The fact that these two metrics are being treated as additive implies they are of equal marginal value. That is incorrect. 1 point of OBP has a higher marginal value than 1 point of SLG. Therefore, there's an inherent flaw in OPS. Which I believe is the original point being made. Now if there was some stat out there that was the sum of SLG and SB%, or one that was ERA + Balk%, then you'd have a valid point.
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That's not really the reason. That's like saying dollars are worth more than yen because dollars come in denominations of up to $100 and and Yen up to 10,000. The scale has nothing to do with it. If you had $100 and 10,000 yen in your pocket, would you rather have me hand you one more dollar or one more yen?
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As if the stupid slotting guidelines weren't enough of a joke before, now we've got guys sitting around picking their noses for a month when they could be playing baseball, because they have to wait until August to make an over-slot deal official.
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isn't szczur not done playing WR for 'nova? We don't know yet. He got 100,000 to play baseball for us this summer and another 500,000 IF he chooses not to play at Nova next year. I thought it was all set that Szczur was going back to play college football this fall. As I understood, the $500K kicks in if he skips the NFL combine next spring, and makes a written declaration to play baseball.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 7-21-10
davearm2 replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I imagine Samardzija's contract makes his options status pretty irrelevant. He'd fly right through waivers if the Cubs wanted to send him down next year. Didn't think of that. Although it is just a $2m deal correct? He'd probably be a perfect option for the Yankees to take given how they are always looking for bullpen scrubs. According to Cots, Samardzija is making $3M this year, and has two team options totaling $6.5M for 2012 and 2013, so I think we can feel pretty confident that the 2011 number is $3M or a bit above that. Hard to imagine it'd be less than the 2010 number. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes 7-21-10
davearm2 replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I imagine Samardzija's contract makes his options status pretty irrelevant. He'd fly right through waivers if the Cubs wanted to send him down next year. -
Example on why Hendry should be fired
davearm2 replied to italianocubsfan7's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
First, "guys that can catch the ball". Then, "guys that hit lefthanded." Next, "guys that can hit real flyouts." -
Piniella: I'm retiring at the end of the season
davearm2 replied to Ballgame64's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Of course the plan will be to hire the right "manager of the future" this offseason. What, did you think they'd just hire any old guy and figure, "eh, we'll just fire him in a year"? -
Piniella: I'm retiring at the end of the season
davearm2 replied to Ballgame64's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I still think hes the Braves next manager That's got to be the most likely scenario, but the fact that he has a history with Hendry should be a good sign. -
I'll trade them Lilly, but we should keep Marmol unless presented with an offer we'd be dumb to turn down. Young, inexpensive, talented players like Marmol, Castro, Soto are guys we should be keeping and building around. The position players, sure. But the relievers with crazy command problems and quickly fading inexpensiveness? Go for it. You forgot ticking timebomb for an elbow.
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Exactly. The thing that will keep Ramirez from being traded is his contract. Look at what's reportedly going on with the Phils -- they need to shed a Jason Werth-sized contract in order to add an Oswalt-sized contract. And I imagine the Phils have more $$$ flexibility than most other teams. Adding a guy like Ramirez would be difficult for large-market team, and virtually impossible for a mid- or small-market team. And the large-market team would have to have enough expiring contracts to offset what Ramirez is owed in 2011 and 2012.