davearm2

Um, have you actually compared the 2 of them? Career numbers Furcal - .284 BA/.349 OBP/.407 SLG/94 OPS+ Theriot - .276 BA/.341 OBP/.379 SLG/83 OPS+ Furcal has never had a season with an OPS+ as low as Theriot's 72 in his only full year. And Theriot's career numbers are helped greatly by a huge 53-game season two years ago.\ Plus, Furcal is just three years older than Theriot. I'd happily take Raffy. People want to talk about a marginal upgrades...would you prefer to pay $13,000,000 in 2008 extra to have Furcal's numbers? Comparing both by 2007 and I see identical statistics. Yes, it was a down year for Furcal, but are you willing to gamble $13,000,000 that he's going to show a significant rebound at 30+ years old coming off of injuries? yes, 2007 was an anomaly. 2008 is a contract year. Furcal will have a great season. Furcal had a miserable first half in his last contract year (2005). It took a monster July and solid August and September just to get him back to his career norms.

Seems to me when you boil it down, you've got: Marshall + Patterson + Murton for Roberts + Payton. Not too far afield from some of the rumors we're hearing. Replacing Gallagher with Marshall makes it a little light, but if the Cubs take on all of Payton's contract, it's not hard to imagine that being the deal-clincher. The O's have no use for that guy, and at $5M, his trade value is negative. Leaving the second half of the deal: Pie for DeJesus. Pass on that one. DeJesus doesn't do a whole lot for me. I look at that guy and wonder what he puts at the top of his resume. He doesn't excel at getting on base. He doesn't hit for power. He doesn't run much. His defense is nothing special. And until 2007, he couldn't stay on the field for the full year. Maybe his contract is the major selling point. Hardly much to get excited about there. And for Pie? No thanks.

I'm not saying I'm right, but when I think about the subject of player upgrades, I think about it in terms of performance by position on the field, not batting order. I like Brian Roberts. And if you told me that acquiring him would mean that Mark DeRosa was shifting to SS, I'd be all over the deal. But everything we have heard to date suggests that the only thing a Roberts acquisition does is make DeRosa a "super-sub." That means Ryan Theriot is still starting at SS, and I (like many others here) have a huge problem with that coupled with Felix Pie starting in CF. Their OBPs suggest we will have near 3 automatic outs everytime through the line-up. That's unacceptable for a team spending $125M. Roberts may be better that DeRosa, but the difference is slight in my opinion. The real opportunity is to upgrade at SS and/or CF. The trade focus should be on those positions and a #2 starter. Ideally, acquiring Roberts would mean Mark DeRosa is shifting to AJ Burnett (not straight up of course, but with DeRosa a key piece). Who knows the validity, but that rumor's out there.

The reason it is only a marginal upgrade is because Roberts isn't that much of a better player than DeRosa. A significant upgrade is Derrek Lee over Eric Karros, Hee Seop Choi and Randall Simon. A significant upgrade is Aramis Ramirez over Jose Hernandez, Mark Bellhorn and Lenny Harris. A significant upgrade is Alfonso Soriano over Todd Hollandsworth and Jason Dubois. Significant is when you are not getting valuable production at a particular position and you acquire some who gives you valuable production at a particular position. Significant is when you are getting average production at a particular position and you acquire someone who gives you astronomical production at that particular position. Right now, this Cub team is only looking at a marginal improvement offensively with the addition of Fukudome. If Soto and Fukudome are better than advertised, DeRosa plays SS and Roberts is at 2b, then I would upgrade marginal to significant improvement. Maybe you are just putting too much emphasis on the word marginal? This is truly a silly semantic argument, but surely there must be something in between a little (marginal) and a lot (significant), no? And I'll go ahead and point out that in 3 of the past 5 seasons, the Cubs were either in or out of the playoffs by two wins or less. So marginal can be significant. ;)

Well at any rate, between Cedeno and DeRosa, it certainly seems reasonable to expect Theriot will be on a short leash. If he's as awful as everyone seems to agree he is, then Lou will simply switch to one of the other two guys. I've got no problem with that arrangement.

Reggie Willits is probably a better comp for Fuld. Willits in 1596 MiLB ABs: .301/.397/.397/.794 Fuld in 1184 MiLB ABs: .296/.377/.417/.794 Freel in 2769 MiLB: .269/.360/.397/.757 Freel's MLB stats look nearly identical, just a shade less SLG: .270/.358/.378/.736 And Fuld's defensive profile is much closer to Willits'.

Definitely not true. Dubois was old doing that in AAA. Geo was not. Not sure I'm real sold on the age argument. For one, the difference is only a year (DuBois 25 in '04; Soto 24 in '07) For another, DuBois was getting his first crack at AAA, while Soto was spending his third straight year at AAA. I guess I just recall things differently that you guys, because I recall people being awfully excited to add a (perceived) middle of the order thumper to the Cubs' lineup, despite his well-recognized defensive and baserunning shortcomings.

A) One Zambrano for every five Dubois is probably an excellenct ratio. B) You could not have possibly seen people say we can't possibly trading Dubois. It just never happened. The revisionist history of Dubois has gotten out of control. Dubois was never a big time prospect that everybody loved. Dubois was a guy some people thought could be halfway decent if they had 2 other solid outfielders to play alongside him. He was never an untouchable or anything close. He was never a darling. He was simply a guy people were willing to live so that the team could spend money on actual players. I was actually one of his bigger supporters on the board, but I never envisioned an OF of Dubois, Hollandsworth, Burnitz and Patterson. Dubois was just a body to fill a spot. Had they gone after a real corner OF, perhaps they could have lived with Dubois numbers. As it turns out, he never even came close to fulfilling the rather small expectations people actually had for him. Jersey I think you're underestimating the level of DuBois hype that existed after the guy lit up the PCL to the tune of 31 HRs and a 1.000+ OPS in 2004. Those numbers are much like the ones Soto just put up in '07, and the resulting enthusiasm for DuBois heading into 2005 was on the same level that we're seeing for Soto in '08. I distinctly recall people hyperventilating over the prospect of Hollandsworth taking ABs from DuBois. Lots of folks were awfully gung-ho.

They can have Felix Patterson as far as I'm concerned. He needs to be traded before teams start figuring out that he's lost against major league pitching. He's supposed to be this burner on the paths and he steals bases at like a 55% clip. I don't think he's got much of a baseball IQ and I'm not keeping him around solely for defensive purposes. Felix Pie first 177 AB: .215/.270/.333 Alex Rodriguez first 184 AB: .223/.270/.348 Boy, I bet the Mariners are glad that they didn't give up and trade him away after the first 184 AB. what a [expletive] comparison let's see.....Pie was a decent prospect who was 22. Rodriguez was the best prospect in the game, probably the best prospect in the history of the game -- even better than Griffey Jr, and was 18. you cant compare them dont pretend you can jesus Somehow I think my point went way over your head. I'm simply saying that over 180 ABs, there is absolutely no way you can say Felix Pie is a bust. I then found an example of a player who had similar numbers and obviously changed that around quickly. Felix obviously does not have the credentials that ARod did, nor am I even coming close to making that point. But Felix is not Ronny Cedeno or some other lightly regarded prospect either. He has consistantly been among the top prospects in baseball according to Baseball America. That alone should state that you shouldn't use his first 177 freaking ABs to determine how he is going to do the rest of his baseball career. Get it now?? Oh and I'm not Jesus but I appreciate the comparison. Actually it's pretty astonishing that someone would read the original quote and somehow conclude that Pie is being compared to ARod. The point is obviously not anywhere close to that. The point is that the first few hundred ABs of a player's career are usually a terrible indicator of what their entire career will turn out like.

hey questionmarkgrace....see above I don't think we should trade Hill for Bedard, but I also don't think it's fair to compare these numbers. Bedard pitched in the much tougher AL East. Um, thats what the stat above debunks (at least for 2007). Tougher by 014 OPS points. Thats not the OPS allowed by the pitchers I'm quoting. Thats the total OPS of the batters they face (ie the OPS those batters have for the year). It shows that Hill basically faced the same quality of hitters that Bedard faced. That's a flawed conclusion. Go back to your numbers, and replace National League with "High School" and American League with "New York Yankees," and see if it still makes sense. Basically you'd be concluding that high school hitters are the same quality as NYY hitters, since they had the same OPS. Obviously the key element being ignored is the disparity in the quality of the pitching each group faces.

Don't be surprised it Tejada is the guy Hendry's really after.

Because it is about the money. But so what? that's what they play for. ARod/Boras are floating a 262 million dollar number around. That is EXACTLY twice as much as the higest paid athlete in sports. According to Keith Olberman. If you want to say "for Boras, it's all about the money", then fine. Of course Boras is drooling to put Arod on the market. I can't stand the man, but if I were a ball player, he's the guy I want representing me. Arod opted out without even sitting down with the Yanks. If it was about the money, don't you think he'd at least sit down with them and hear what the richest team in baseball has to offer? Well said. Not only are the Yanks the richest team in baseball, but they had a $21M headstart on everyone else. Now I'm not sure I'm fully onboard with the 'too much uncertainty with the Yankees' future' party line, but there's more at work here than just money to be sure.