davearm2

Agreed. Cubs had their eyes on other dudes.

I can't shake the instinct that Lee will never hit enough to be an impact major leaguer. Fast, slick fielding, no-hit utility MIs are not that uncommon, and not that valuable. I also can't shake the instinct that these extreme boom/bust type of prospects bust way more often than they boom. It should go without saying that I home my instincts are wrong in both instances.

It's a silly argument predicated on your confusing knowing with trying. I wasn't trying to get a rise out of folks, but I knew my opinion would be unpopular with the saber-savvy set. This will be my final comment on the matter. Your opinion is fine and a point worth remembering. However, it's not that your opinion would get a rise out of people. It's the way you phrased it that was purposefully written with no other reason but to get a rise out of the "saber-savvy set". If you simply express the opinion that line drive percentages are sketchy at best in the minors and that BABIP adjustments at that level may not be as meaningful as they are in the majors, then there's no issue with anyone and a meaningful discussion may ensue. However, by phrasing your opinion in the manner most likely to piss people off, you were not only expressing your thoughts but also intentionally trying to "get a rise" out of your target audience. That's trolling. Now, I'll give you credit - it's intelligent trolling, trolling with a point to be made, etc. But to me, you're trolling anytime you are purposefully saying something on a forum such as this with the intention of eliciting an angry response. By calling it "hocus-pocus", you were doing exactly such a thing. As I have already explained, that was not my intention. The bolded is your inference, which is incorrect. I refer you again to the distinction between knowing and trying.

The guys the Astros and DBacks traded were owed tens of millions and signed beyond this year. Much different circumstances than Lilly's.

It's a silly argument predicated on your confusing knowing with trying. I wasn't trying to get a rise out of folks, but I knew my opinion would be unpopular with the saber-savvy set.

Did you know you would get a rise out of some folks when you posted your prospect rankings? Yeah I thought you did.

Isn't that the very definition of trolling? Making a point that you know others will disagree with = trolling? Not in my book. Saying something with the express purpose of "getting a rise out of some of you folks" = trolling. That wasn't the express purpose.

Isn't that the very definition of trolling? Making a point that you know others will disagree with = trolling? I guess you were trolling with your prospect list too. ;)

HOCUS POCUS, HE SAID. I knew that would get a rise out of some of you folks. To deny the practical limitations of some of these advanced metrics puts your head just as squarely in the sand as those that ignore them altogether.

Good luck getting reliable, accurate and consistent LD rates in the Southern League. Heck it's somewhat sketchy even at the MLB level.

Jesus, that's even worse. If they traded Z for just Perez, without throwing in any money? I think I'd take that. You would trade a pitcher with an era under 4 when starting for a guy who's era has been in the 6's most of his career starting at roughly the same age? One pitches in a hitters park (Wrigley), and the other pitches in a pitchers park (New York). I realize that people want to blow the team up, but blowing the team up and gaining less productive players at the same age is not going to end well. It's all about the $$$. Recouping the money left on Z's deal is the obvious motivation. And Z's days of being a sub-4.00 guy may well be over.

Indeed. We're talking about a guy that would fly through waivers unclaimed.

Not for 2 months of Ted Lilly anyway.

Yeah because they were doing so well with them.

Looks like away from home, Johnson is Theriot.

So, even when you neutralize for luck, he still wasn't very good. Yeah, no one's saying that Vitters woulda torn apart the Southern League if it weren't for that darn misfortune. But an .800 OPS in AA as a 20 year old is nothing to be disappointed in either. Only 14 qualified hitters in the Southern League have an OPS greater than .800 right now. How many have an OPS greater than .800 after all of the neutralizing though? Vitters isn't there even with the hocus pocus.

Apparently Lilly would mind though. IIRC the Twins are on his NTC list.

LOL I don't even know Kearns was still in MLB.

Even though no deal > bad deal, not making any trades would still be a big buzzkill.

Let's not run too far with this Gordon chatter. It was just Offman pulling names out of the air.

Two months of Lilly(the best starter on the market) and a pretty decent chance at a first round & sandwich pick. Lilly is (arguably) the best starter LEFT on the market. The teams that were prepared to pay up, have already filled their needs with better guys. Now what's left are the bargain-hunters, so this should come as no surprise. The only person better than Lilly to change hands is Oswalt. It's not like 4 teams have added SP and the Cubs are left to deal Lilly to either the Pirates or the Royals. The Yankees, Mets, Tigers, Dodgers, and Twins have been linked to Lilly. You consider Lilly better than Cliff Lee and Dan Haren? With the exception of the Yankees, I'd say all of the teams you mentioned should be described as bargain-hunters at this time. EDIT: I see this ground has been covered ;)

Two months of Lilly(the best starter on the market) and a pretty decent chance at a first round & sandwich pick. Lilly is (arguably) the best starter LEFT on the market. The teams that were prepared to pay up, have already filled their needs with better guys. Now what's left are the bargain-hunters, so this should come as no surprise.

Actually it more goes to show what little leverage Ed Wade has in this situation. If there was a better offer out there, don't you think he would've taken it? As-is, his choices were to do this trade, or to continue to pay Oswalt $16M in hopes of staying out of last place.

Lee currently projects as a Type B FA, but he'd have to be offered arb (or sign elsewhere before the deadline to offer arb). Hard to envision the Cubs offering him arb and locking into another year at $10M+.

I presumed part of the Phils' reason for shopping Werth is because he is underperforming. I was wrong.