It's the lack of a competent QB on the other team. Any competent QB can hang 40 on these guys. The exception to that was Matt Ryan, who probably would have done the same if all his receivers weren't dropping passes. Miami had an average QB, but they also had an elite defense. Minnesota has a crappy QB situation and while their defense isn't bad, they aren't as good as Miami. Manuel looked pretty good too though. Still a high risk they give up many scores, though if they could manage to actually all play the same coverage every play maybe they hold them to 21 and we lose 21-20. I wasn't trying to say the Bears will win, just making sense of the point spread. The Bears should score and they theoretically won't get shredded by the opposing QB. And they are home.