jersey cubs fan

power and OBP. As for adding Marshall, I guess the question is whether you think he's likely to maintain his current pace. As a guy with his own injury history and no real record of prolonged dominance at any level, perhaps his value is at its highest right now. Is he really irreplacable for the Cubs? I don't think so. I guess you could call it opening a hole, but I think there are a could guys that could step in and provide similar effectiveness. Probably not the same level of performance that Marshall has been at year-to-date, but the level of performance we might be getting from him going forward.

Noting against your trade idea, but I see no reason to mortage the future for KGJ. If the Cubs are taking on a good portion of the deferred salary they shouldn't have to give up much to get him. I'd be willing to give them their pick of two position prospects or one pitching prospect but they have to take Jones. But truely, I don't think the Cubs should trade for KGJ at all. He's having a good year, but one he's not likely to repeat ever again. I see your point, but are we really mtging the future by trading Gallagher, Petrick and EPatt? The deal doesn't include Colvin, Veal, etc. Yeah, I don't think that trade mortgages the future at all. They are depth prospects, not top ones. EPatt is nice and all, but the Cubs don't seem interested in having him be the 2B of the future. I'd consider it, depending on how the finances work. Griffey isn't going to be paid a ton in 2008. If they took back Jones in the deal it could be pretty interesting. Griffey is an elite talent. It's not unreasonable to expect him to maintain these levels. I think a big part of keeping him healthy and productive is moving him out of CF. Get him comfortable in a corner and let him play without killing himself in the field. We're talking about a guy whose downside is basically what Jones did last year in a good year for him. Griffey has regularly had good plate discipline, with and IsoD over 100 right now and in the 80's for his career. He's got power, which is something that older players are often capable of maintaining. I think he's a legit gamble to produce for the next year and a half.

If you really want 12 pitchers, now is not the time to do it. The only reason to waste a roster spot on a 7th reliever is if your bullpen has been taxed. Cubs' relievers will have at least 4 days of rest before gametime, and all but Howry will have at least 5. I don't think the Cubs need 12 pitchers period, but Lou has been barking for quite some time about how he wants to get back to 12. Right, and he'll have to wait at least a few more days before such a move is made. Might as well wait until the bullpen isn't 100% rested before making such a move.

See my post. BTW, what happened to all those pictures of girls in your avatar and sig??? I miss those. I'm told this a family site. :-) you can't make families without females.

If you really want 12 pitchers, now is not the time to do it. The only reason to waste a roster spot on a 7th reliever is if your bullpen has been taxed. Cubs' relievers will have at least 4 days of rest before gametime, and all but Howry will have at least 5.

Somebody start the game thread already. I'm dying here with no worthwhile baseball to talk about. I don't care if we're 40-something hours from the first pitch. We're 72 hours from the last game and I'm bored.

Butler drew walks, Ichiro doesn't. Playing until you are 40-42 is not the same thing as maintain the level of performance through your mid-30's.

Provide some scrutiny that disproves it. I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's. We're talking about a guy with little patience and very little power whose entire game is based on his ability to make contact and run to first. The closest comparable I can think of is Kenny Lofton, but he had more patience and more power. He has stuck around a while, but has been quite inconsistent. Lofton Otis Nixon Ricky Henderson Ozzie Smith Lou Brock Willie Wilson Brett Butler Davey Lopes Omar Vizquel What a terrible attempt to defend your stance. LOL! You said, "I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's." Well now you know of several. Happy to be of service. Except for the fact that Ricky was never thinly built, and Brett Butler, Davey Lopes, Otis Nixon, Lou Brock, Omar Vizquel, Ozzie Smith, and Kenny Lofton were pretty much medicore to crappy players by their mid 30s. Is it really that hard to look up statistics? Baseball reference is your friend. So you're saying these guys weren't as good at 38 as they were at 25? Gosh, I hadn't noticed that. :roll: The point is, the decline seen in these guys' career paths is not at all atypical for any player, or indicative of some enhanced risk associated with being thin and fast. In fact these guys aged much better than the general baseball population does. You are listing guys who are nothing like Ichiro (Ricky, patience and power), guys who were never productive in the first place (most of your list) and guys who did fall apart as they reached their mid 30's. You haven't come close to providing a list of guys whose game is similar to that of Ichiro who held up their production throughout their mid 30's.

Ichiro's game is not built on speed. It's built on an incredible ability to hit a baseball in almost any direct.Why are you telling me that? Tell it to the folks that seem to think Ichiro is going to suck in 3 years simply because his game's built on speed. People are saying he will decline and not be worth anywhere near what he's getting paid, not necessarily suck.

Maybe it was those god awful ugly white shoes he had on.

Prime years are 26-29. I don't see how it's arbitrary to say a player who is 31 is past his prime. Soriano has an OPS+ of 126 right now, below what he had at 26, 27 and 30. Prime years are not static for everybody, it goes back to what Have a seat, Neifi! was talking about. His OPS+ for this year is trivially lower than a couple years past, especially considering the difference in OBP making up any difference in league/park factor. The point is that Soriano is playing just as well as he has at any point in his career(again, look to last year's numbers at the break), I don't see how you can say he's past his prime just because he's 31. Also, 26-29 isn't universally accepted as the normal prime years either, ranges from 28-32 have also been cited. OK. Let's not lose sight of the point here. Whether the prime is 26-29 or 28-32 Soriano, Lee, and Aramis are not "entering" their prime they are "leaving" their prime. How dare you. These are all individuals and we have to judge them individually. You can't just make assumptions based on their ages.

Provide some scrutiny that disproves it. I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's. We're talking about a guy with little patience and very little power whose entire game is based on his ability to make contact and run to first. The closest comparable I can think of is Kenny Lofton, but he had more patience and more power. He has stuck around a while, but has been quite inconsistent. Lofton Otis Nixon Ricky Henderson Ozzie Smith Lou Brock Willie Wilson Brett Butler Davey Lopes Omar Vizquel What a terrible attempt to defend your stance.

I think this "abysmal offseason" is getting overplayed. Tank hurts some...but Briggs may play. We've added strength at safety with Archuleta and a healthy Mike Brown...we got a TE upgrade...we've got Hester on offense...there's an awful lot of positives that are being overlooked by the national media just because Tank and Briggs were so ever-present in the spotlight. Greatly? I was disappointed in Tank long before any of his legal issues. I think all this "the Bears will greatly miss Tank" talk is revisionist history. Nobody thought of him as a cog until after he was suspended. I'm pretty certain the drafting of Dusty was a direct response to Tank disappointing. The media focuses so heavily on the Lovie extension talks, that they put it in their minds right away that this was going to be a tumultuous offseason. They've created a Rex controversy themselves, so it all just builds. The national media takes a general stance on a team and just sticks with it for as long as possible. Manning and the Colts can't win when it matters (or in any kind of bad weather). Brady and the Patriots can't lose in the postseason. Parcells has Dallas on the verge of a championship. Detroit is up and coming. The Bears are mismanaged and don't have a QB. All of these have been the story for several years now.

The true cost of a player is his salary less any incremental revenue directly attributable to that player. If you pay Ichiro $20MM and you forecast additional incremental revenue of $10MM he costs you the same as a $12MM dollar player without the marketing power that only generates $2MM incremental revenue. Marketing makes a huge difference. His greatest value to the team was in his first few years. He's going to get worse and worse in the field, and he is going to sell less and less. Teams hold onto guys later in their life for PR reasons more than marketing revenue reasons. Somebody on the verge of huge records might continue to bring in the money, but with attendance plummeting since Iricho-mania has cooled considerably and the team has struggled, his value has dropped considerably. Teams worry much more about the PR backlash of letting a guy go than the revenue opportunity of keeping him around. They make most of their money off the player in his early years. The Yankees will be paying Jeter way more than he's worth long after his value was great for the team.

Provide some scrutiny that disproves it. I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's. We're talking about a guy with little patience and very little power whose entire game is based on his ability to make contact and run to first. The closest comparable I can think of is Kenny Lofton, but he had more patience and more power. He has stuck around a while, but has been quite inconsistent.

same here. his old avatar threw me off for a long time. i finally saw a picture of him in the picture thread. i was really surprised. Really?

Yes it is horrible. 10 NL teams have an OBP above .330 from the 2 spot. Including the Cubs at .353. If they put up a .330 OBP in the 2 spot the offense would be worse than it is, and it's already not very good.

Financially, maybe, with the Japanese market. But he's way down the list of MLB stars right now and he's just going to keep going down. I wouldn't want to be anywhere near that contract for such a player. Ichiro isn't going to maintain his contract/career year numbers he has right now. He's most likely going to settle into the very unspecial numbers he put up the past couple years. Nice, good piece of the puzzle, but completely unspecial. Horrible baseball contract.

according to soapy's stats jacque jones is just as good as murton Not really. Murton has the edge in the most important category, OBP, and he's got the edge in location along career path. Neither is great. But Murton is better and can get even better.

Numbers wise, I think he'd be a help (although not a tremendous one), but his ego driven insistence that he's a starter makes me believe it's not worth it.

I would guess 5/125 on the low end, 6/180 on the high end. I don't see him going 7/8 years.

No he would not have appealed it. He dropped it because he wouldn't really miss a start with the way the schedule was set up. He started on the 4th. His team played on the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th. He could have been around for game 1 after the break, with 2 days of rest following what is likely to be no more than 1 inning in the ASG. Now he'll go on the 14th. It's pretty much the thing that would happen with any starting pitcher getting a 5 game suspension. His next start gets pushed back a day, ASG or not.

stupid complaint

But usually where there's smoke, there's fire, right? I'm just shocked that I can't find a link anywhere, even if it's just speculation. It's been speculated all year that he would opt out. I'm sure the discussion you were hearing is just them assuming he will, which makes sense. Right now he's guaranteed 3/81. I'd speculate he could get 5/125 without even trying. I'm betting his contentious relationship with all things Yankee will mean he's gone. If the Yanks don't make a run this month, they should probably trade him. If they do, then I could see him signing an extension with his new team, that would presumably keep Texas on the hook for their portion of his current deal, roughly $27m. Then, his new team could throw 3/60-75 on the back end, and Alex would have 6/141-156 guaranteed, after this year, but his team would only be paying 6/114-129, with Texas maintaining its share. In other words, ARod's best option for himself is probably to get traded (motive for rumors) and sign an extension with a new team, since Texas would then still be picking up part of the bill.