jersey cubs fan
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Everything posted by jersey cubs fan
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Keith Moreland talks to much. -
Because Ryan Howard hits lefites like I do True, that still might be better than Ben Francisco does though. Very close, 717 to 701. You don't walk him there, but you don't give him a fastball down the plate.
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But I don't really see taking off half of his 2010 salary and half of his 2011 salary really matters. I doubt any team would think of his contract as a hindrance, so lessening it doesn't really matter.
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Nothing like showcasing your lefty giving up a bomb to a LH bat who can't hit lefties.
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My concern is that it wouldn't take a cliff dive for his value to fall a lot. A $3m CF with a 118 OPS+ is great. He's got a career 101 OPS+, and was 106 last year. He could revert quite easily, still be okay, but have significantly lower trade value. Take 20 points off his OBP and 50 off his SLG and you are at his career average. Even if you aren't worried about him pulling a Ramirez next year (which you really shouldn't be), his trade value could still suffer quite a bit.
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But his OPS has been climbing this month!
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who? the catcher they had a couple of years ago That dude was awesome.
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who?
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I'm not sure how that is akin to selling low. His value is probably at the highest it's been in his career, and the odds are it's probably going to be lower later. His contract can fit on almost every team, and the fact that is lasts 2 more years is a good thing in this case. Maybe you can get more in 12 months, but you could easily get less if his performance starts to decline. Sure there is risk in that you might be able to get more later, but I think that is a very low risk. I don't need to get blown away by a deal to justify moving a 33 year old on a bad team that needs to get younger and think about the future.
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Carlos Zambrano's brouhaha and apology
jersey cubs fan replied to Outshined_One's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
So did Oscar Acosta and now he's dead. So be careful. -
I googled White Sox shorts
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Byrd has been well above average and a clear starting OF.
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Carlos Zambrano's brouhaha and apology
jersey cubs fan replied to Outshined_One's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
That sounds about right. The media loved it when he was all "fiery" and "emotional" when he was good. Now that he is having a bad year, it's a problem. His emotions, and how he succumbs to them is what made him so good for so long. The problem is that when he sucks, those who have no idea on how to explain why he sucks, just blames it on his emotions. He needs to be "rehabbing" whatever physical ailment that has his velo down. I'm not sure you can just rehab age and overuse. Most guys lose velocity with age, especially those that rack up lots of innings at a young age. -
But then you run the risk of having to pay him again when nobody offers a contract better than he could get in arbitration. They base it on three year numbers, don't they? It can be beneficial to old guys nearing the end to accept arbitration and probably get a raise even if they sucked in the previous year. I thought it was based on two-years, not three. The Elias rankings are based on two years IIRC. I was referring to the criteria the arbiter uses when making his decision, not how they rank a player.
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He turns 33 soon, and will be 35 before his contract is up. I wouldn't be upset if they traded him, and I hope they do it before 2012.
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You can't say it's clear cut they won't offer, but the fact that they have not offered risky players in the past indicates they may not be willing to offer Lee.
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This free agent class is really bad. There are a few nice pitchers and outfielders available (Crawford, De La Rosa, Francis, Bonderman, etc) but nothing on the infield outside of Cantu, Dunn and maybe Maicer Izturis. The best FA second baseman is either Jose Lopez or Aki Iwamura. There's a chance one of Rollins or Reyes could be available and, if either is, I'd change my mind about offering DLee arbitration. However, it's unlikely either of them are available and that leaves not much of anything I'd be interested in. It also does not have to be a free agent acquisition for the money to matter. $10m on DLee is a risk, there's no reason to pretend otherwise.
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I assumed since he was 21 in 1976 that it couldn't be him. You know too much detail about Chet Lemon. I just baseball referenced the 1976 White Sox and looked for older position players. They were a pretty young team that year. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/1976.shtml
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With Wood there was a significant chance he wouldn't pitch at all in a season. With DLee there's a chance, but it's nowhere near the level it was for Wood. The injuries and the price tag on Wood make the two not very comparable. They are not very comparable, other than in the discussion about the Cubs willingness to risk arbitration with a player who might take it.
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Such as? If we were likely to be good next year or if there were very good free agents available at positions of need for us in this offseason, I'd agree with you. But if we pay $12 million in arbitration to DLee, we might miss out on signing Jorge Cantu or giving 3-4 years to Adam Dunn. The positive to offering DLee arbitration is that if he doesn't accept and somebody signs him, we get more in return (and possibly significantly more if he ends up a Type A) than if we trade him at his lowest value and if he accepts, he has the potential to be better than Cantu if he rebounds and we might get even more at next year's deadline. Since we're not going to be competitive next year (most likely), we don't have any first base prospects in the system and there aren't any impact first baseman on the FA market, I don't see a problem with keeping DLee and offering him arby. Unless we get a good offer at the deadline, that is. It doesn't have to be another first basemen. If $10-12m of the budget goes to Lee, it can't go toward anybody else, maybe another Byrd or DeRosa type player, not highly compensated, but quality player nonetheless. And that can affect 2012 and beyond since you wouldn't be able to sign them in 2011.
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Wood was cheaper in a raw dollar evaluation, but $10 million to a closer is a whole lot more than $10-12 million for a first baseman. Also, Wood had significant injury concerns and may have raised red flags for the Cubs as to whether he'd be able to pitch the next season. DLee may be washed up and may not be productive, but he also might have a resurgence next year. There aren't really significant injury concerns for DLee (other than him being mid-30s) like there were for Wood and paying $12 million for a first baseman on a one-year deal isn't that extreme, whereas paying $10 million for an oft-injured closer is. They aren't Wood-like, but his back and neck bothers him every year, and that can only get worse with age.
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He might not be blocking anybody, but it's still risking $10m on a crappy player, and that is $10m that can't go toward other potential improvements.
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It's an old post about free agency.
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But then you run the risk of having to pay him again when nobody offers a contract better than he could get in arbitration. They base it on three year numbers, don't they? It can be beneficial to old guys nearing the end to accept arbitration and probably get a raise even if they sucked in the previous year. I thought it was based on two-years, not three. I have no idea actually. I'm just thinking that an arbiter would be willing to look past recent struggles of an old guy more than I would. An old player coming off a horrible year shouldn't get a big deal in free agency, but if he made $10m the year before he could get a lot in arbitration.
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But then you run the risk of having to pay him again when nobody offers a contract better than he could get in arbitration. They base it on three year numbers, don't they? It can be beneficial to old guys nearing the end to accept arbitration and probably get a raise even if they sucked in the previous year.
