Backtobanks
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Everything posted by Backtobanks
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I'm not surprised. Why should he try to weave through this off season while dealing with financial restrictions when he has lots of other options out there.
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We could solve the problem If only we could turn back time (when money was flowing) and KB would get us 2-3 good young players/prospects that could step right in and contribute to the ML roster. Unfortunately, those days aren't happening this off season.
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I still do not get the thinking, BN's writers like to do this too, that the Cubs will dump their current starters because budgetz to then go pay more money in FA for older starters. How does that work? Are they looking to be competitive in 2021 by signing those guys? The budget is keeping them from adding to a team that clearly has some flaws, shortcomings, redundancies, etc. The only way to change that and still try and win without bottoming out is to move on from one of the better/more expensive players and use that money/trade capital to deepen the roster. Not saying I like it, but I get it. Moving KB for Kieboom (or whatever prospect(s) you want to consider) and NT'ing Schwarbs free's up about $30 mil, it also gives you a player(s) for KB who you presumably control longer. I think there's a decent argument that whatever KB returns + 2-3 of DJ, Eaton, Wong, Brantley, other NT/FA position players and a non Bauer FA SP for that ~$30 mil can give us a more competitive team in 2021 vs just running it back with the core and a few Kipnis level FA adds on the margins. But everything I have read sounds like PTR wants to cut payroll and not trade $30 million to spend the same money on 2-3 other players. They will have a competitive team (in a lousy division) for 2021 without making any changes.
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I have trouble believing that trading off our veterans in the age of COVID is going to get "equal" talent. Obviously, all of the owners are tightening the purse strings and are reluctant to give up good young players/prospects. It's going to be interesting to see what Theo can do in his last year. I don't think he wants to go out with a mediocre team.
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From MLBTR: "As for the Rays, they picked up the younger, 19-year-old Martinez who now ranks as their No. 21 prospect at MLB.com and Baseball America as well as their No. 31 prospect at FanGraphs. The lack of a minor league season makes it impossible to really evaluate the younger Martinez’s 2020 season. That said, he posted a .311/.388/.437 slash through 233 plate appearances back in 2019 and adds some depth to the lower levels of one of MLB’s best farms." If he ranks #21 or #31 in the Rays system, he would probably be close to the top 10 in our system.
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As I've posted before, Theo leaving and us getting a good, young player as compensation would be fantastic. Neither Theo nor Hoyer is going to fill the holes with high-priced stars with little/no trade value and PTR refusing to loosen the purse strings.
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How? I don't get why this guy having money and being willing to spend money on FAs when no one else is opens the door to him spending prospects, especially for a team only now bouncing back their MiLs after trading Kelenic If he misses out on the FAs he wants or decides KB is worth a shot, he might be willing to make a deal. There aren't any guarantees, but a bounce-back season by KB for a team wanting to contend would be a bargain.
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Of course the Cubs' "most reliable reliever" is the guy who got the oblique injury at the end and not the guy who was in the midst of building a HoF resume notsolongago and closed his season in a dominant fashion. I get why, whathaveyoudoneformelately is very flexible and effective, but still. Despite the multi-year multi-pitcher run under Hottovy we must still question the Cubs' ability to get quality results out of castoffs. This is said after calling former castoff Wick the most reliable...Finishes that one thing we can know for sure is that Theo Epstein "faces one of his greatest challenges" (a real thing said!!) trying to put together one more badass baseball team with a roster that already has Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Craig Kimbrel, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward....Very scary stuff, boogity boogity Going back to your post about Cohen and the Mets, if he's going to spend crazily to make an impression, we ought to try to take advantage of that.
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Not only are the Cubs trading the guy who should win the 2020 NL CY, they're doing it in a salary dump to get rid of both him and that pesky still possible HoF reliever! To the hero owner of the Mets! I could see that deal if we're getting back Peterson, Nimmo, and Diaz, but I'm sure that's not going to happen.
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So we have Bryant, Kimbrel, and Schwarber with having little or no trade value and PTR tightening the purse strings with holes to fill. It will be interesting to see how Theo figures this one out.
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In their chat yesterday about the FA predictions, they thought Bryant has minimal trade value, so we're kind of stuck with needing to clear money and not getting very much in return.
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MLBTR has their top FAs and predictions. Some players of note and interest: Quintana to the Red Sox $18m/2 yrs. Taijuan Walker to the Nationals $16m/2yrs Cesar Hernandez to the Diamondbacks $6m/1yr. Lester to the Braves $5m/1yr Chris Archer to the Cubs $4m/1yr. With all the talk of trading Bryant, Contreras, and/or Schwarber for financial reasons I would think we could afford a few of the players above to fill holes. My favorites would be Walker, Quintana, and Hernandez.
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Did you forget that we're broke?
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I definitely can see it. Keuchel, Grandal and Abreu are all a year older, still a ton of young and unproven/unknown pitching (which can go a lot of ways but has kinda busted so far). Then a guy like Anderson probably regresses since it’s hard to run BABIPS at the levels he has in 19 and 20 repeatedly (high .300 BABIPS are tough with his swing and miss profile and good but not like Ichiro/Juan Pierre speed, even like a .320 BABIP and his numbers aren’t special). So will be interesting how much LaRussa gets blamed for that vs it being just some natural correction. Let's not forget that if it's a full season, they will have to play all of the A.L. teams instead of the bottom feeders in the Central division.
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Nobody knows what the FA market is going to be like, but I think you're underestimating the amount that your FAs will get.
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He will be too expensive for us
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I'd rather do Taijuan Walker and re-sign Quintana. Also, picking up Trevor Cahill on the cheap would add some insurance for the rotation and long relief.
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From MLBTR: The Seattle Mariners outrighted three relievers to Triple-A, the team announced. Matt Magill, Carl Edwards Jr., and Nestor Cortes Jr. each elected free agency. The Mariners have 7 open spots on their 40-man roster. Edwards lost it in 2019, but pitched well in limited appearances in 2020. Might be worth looking at.
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Do you really think Theo is going to trade 3 or 4 of Amaya, Hoerner, Marquez, Caratini, and Davis for 1 year of Lindor? Also, What would PTR think of adding $20 million to the payroll for 2021 and hundreds of millions in extensions after that? Is going? Eh, Indians have to agree. Is willing? Sure and "dad's gonna be pissed if this doesn't work" Again, it's hard to predict anything until we see what other trades Theo makes (Bryant, Schwarber, etc.) and what they get in return because Lindor can't fill all of the holes that need to be filled. As for "dad's gonna be pissed if this doesn't work", I don't think "dad" would approve the deal unless Theo saved that much after filling out the rest of the roster.
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They were mentioned as one of 11 teams that might have interest in Lindor. Of course, most of the other teams actually have either: (1) a bigger need at SS, (2) the prospects needed to complete a trade, (3) an owner willing to spend the money to keep Lindor. You think too highly of other teams and their owners! Baez would move. Teams I'd eliminate among those 11 before the Cubs: Reds - Their big rental was Bauer, light on prospects Blue Jays - In play for basically all the FAs, meh on their presence in trades Twins - Just not happening Phillies - Don't have the prospects, likely only an opportunistic FA spender this offseason (Semien?) Dodgers - Placed in by media because Dodgers, but Seager/Lux already has the kind of upside up the middle to keep them spectators and their top prospects after Lux are meh Do you really think Theo is going to trade 3 or 4 of Amaya, Hoerner, Marquez, Caratini, and Davis for 1 year of Lindor? Also, What would PTR think of adding $20 million to the payroll for 2021 and hundreds of millions in extensions after that?
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Fun fact: Hoyer planned to take Lindor at 10 i 2011, flew out to see him https://nypost.com/2016/10/23/when-baseball-world-descended-on-hs-showdown-javier-baez-vs-lindor/ They were mentioned as one of 11 teams that might have interest in Lindor. Of course, most of the other teams actually have either: (1) a bigger need at SS, (2) the prospects needed to complete a trade, (3) an owner willing to spend the money to keep Lindor.
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I wouldn't trade Contreras unless it was an offer that couldn't be refused. With the DH, both catchers can get lots of playing time. Bryant & Schwarber will save the most in money and Bryant should get a decent return (even after a bad year).
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PTR is just gonna promote the leftovers up a spot so he only has to hire a low level scout. The best outcome would be for Jason McLeod to find his long foretold GM position. The Cubs would surely allow him out of his contract, which would actually free up money for the front office. I still have hopes that Theo is waiting to step aside if the Cubs can land a GM like Jared Porter this offseason. The best outcome would be for some club to take Theo and give us a really good compensation player. Nothing would dramatically change in the FO and Hoyer could then work on the trades that need to happen with one hole in the roster possibly filled.
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He would be a good fit. It's hard to make predictions on who to sign, how much money we have to spend, etc. when it looks likely that we may trade 2 of Bryant/Schwarber/Contreras and what the return might be. Obviously trades would free up some more money, but might also fill 1-2 holes with young players which would switch the financial priorities.
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The MLBPA protects players from having 2020 stats used in arbitration, but this guy gets fired for taking the WS farther than expected and finishing with a better record than the Cubs. The shocking thing is that Cooper was fired because Reinsdorf is noted for loyalty.