Backtobanks

Schwarber for Gray straight up. Schwarber In Colorado might hit 50 homers.

Cubs Insider offers some bold moves: https://www.cubsinsider.com/2020/11/28/the-rundown-radical-plan-to-retool-cubs-roster-theo-epstein-not-interested-in-phillies-position-hot-stove-notes/?fbclid=IwAR1rrXnO_HLE-lmDG687QGEQ4aqlKDb7psE3HfGijLPMF2C7BJY3fk1n3Lc I think he is delusional with the Merrifield/Hoerner swap and the White Sox trade for Schwarber, but the Bryant deal would be a good move. I'm not sure the Angels would give up that much pitching for Contreras and Happ.

Yankees are in need of a LH slugger, and MLBTR lists 3 cheap Yankee relivers (Cessa, Heller, and Holder) as non-tender candidates. Not great, but better than giving Schwarber away for nothing.

It is hard to figure out what's going on this off season. All of this speculation about Bryant's worth while every team is drooling over Lindor. I get lindor is great and plays SS, but Bryant's not exactly chopped liver.

Hope that nobody else wins 89 The NL Central winner could be as ugly as the NFC East.

Also, kind of important to the DHs looking to sign with someone.

I don't have a problem tearing it down to the studs, but I think because of the lack of quality in our division you don't necessarily *have* to. You certainly need to make a trade or two that hurts, trading like Kimbrel and Schwarber does nothing. I think Darvish and Hendricks would each bring in Quintana-esque returns, but moving them wouldn't be my Plan A. Maybe I'm naive but I'm hoping to do more of a retool than a rebuild. I've said it a couple times, but I think if you do still want to compete Bryant and Contreras is the path to go. We have high quality backups for each, while Bryant opens up funds to use in FA and Contreras brings in legitimate star power on the prospect front. I hate getting too bogged down on specific names, but something like Contreras to the Marlins for Bleday, Rogers, and another top 20 guy? A Contreras trade likely ends up really moving the needle on the farm system. Bryant's much harder to value, maybe to the Giants for Mauricio Dubon? That might require a few more names to balance it out. Also, on just a pure cold numbers front, trading Javy makes some sense. If you backfilled him with Andrelton Simmons, you're not losing much if anything on defense and you're probably knocking out 100 strikeouts. That's something that will be felt at the team level. That said, I have a more visceral reaction to moving Javy than any of the other position players except for Rizzo. Here's the question though. Is competing for the NL Central and hoping for luck enough in the playoffs? I've said before, I think you can make a case for either way. Tearing it down, or running it back without trading young assets away. I just don't want them to do half-measures - trade a piece or two away and settle in for mediocrity and the hoped for lucky run, and I just don't see how one or two trades, while running the other guys back, is enough. I don't think any asset on our major league team is really going to net a big return in prospects, outside of maybe Darvish and Hendricks (I have my doubts Contreras will net a huge return - I really don't see a Bleday level guy being offered for him, but maybe I'm way off here). I think you answered your own question. Making that 1 or 2 trades that clear some payroll and filling in with roles players is good enough to probably win the division. Trading off all of our top assets (Darvish, Hendricks, etc.) brings back top of the line prospects, but that doesn't guarantee total success in the future, especially when there's no way of knowing how generous PTR will be in a few years.

Hoyer was the GM of what I guess I have to call the first rebuild, I'm not worried about what he can do. Like in the grand scheme of MLB FO transitions, this is no different from Chris Antonetti taking over after Mark Shapiro left Cleveland *outside* of Hoyer having more overall experience and a WS win in the GM role. Hoyer was the "GM", but everybody knew it was Theo calling the shots and pulling the strings during the rebuild.

Honestly, the rebuilding years were probably the most invested I had ever been in the Cubs in my whole life. Theo had a lot to do with that, but if they blow it up and pull in some big prospects/youngsters I actually think I might be more interested than I have been the last couple of years. At least Theo had a track record of building a team and had an owner willing to spend when it was necessary. Hoyer has always been in the mix, but was never the guy to build a team. Also, who knows what financial commitment PTR will make in a few years.

Yeah, I completely agree that they hoped to avoid painful choices by having great prospects ready to step in at multiple positions right about now, if not over the past couple years. But lacking that, faced with a choice between tanking, raising payroll, or being out of contention but not tanking, with a couple marketable stars but no real playoff shot, I think the family has always leaned toward #3. Not sure about that, hope I’m wrong, but I always suspected it, and despite the fact that I’ve been arguing that the writing seems to be on the wall about big payroll cuts, I’m also skeptical that the org would choose to tank. Since terms like teardown may be interpreted differently by each of us, the concrete thing I’m expecting is that the team keeps Rizzo, Darvish, Hendricks, and perhaps Baez to give a lowball extension offer to at some point, but does approximately zilch over the next few years to add anybody from the FA market. If Hoerner/Alzolay/Marquez/Davis/any trade returns turn out to be useful in, say, 2022, we could be looking at a reasonable team still built around Baez/Rizzo/Darvish/Hendricks, but like my projected 2021 team, still one gradually built up through existing young assets rather than blowing it all up and bringing in a ton of new, low minors youth. I can see the argument that the approach I’m describing might be worse than tanking, but predictions should be based on observed trends rather than ones own value judgments, and IMO this is where the rhetoric has been pointing for a while. I also have a question for everybody: if Jed goes to Tom and says he wants to sell off literally every good player we have, do the rest of you expect that Tom would ok it? I don't think Tom would ok it. As many of us have pointed out, getting rid of all (or most) of the salaries of KB, Schwarber, and possibly Contreras and Kimbrel makes PTR happy while fielding a competitive team (in a lousy division) maximizes his bottom line.

I still don't think the Cubs will start over. Trading KB, Schwarber, and Contreras makes the team the epitome of mediocrity, but that might be enough in the NL Central. It wouldn't surprise me if the NL Central winner wins 82-85 games. Of course that's assuming Baez and Rizzo return to form and Hendricks, Darvish, Heyward, and Happ have similar years as 2020.

Jeebus, have a heart man! First and foremost, this gives the Ricketts family a chance to at least try and pick up the pieces You can pick up a lot of pieces for $150 million in tax breaks.

Simple solution - Put the Cubs up for sale. PTR makes a huge profit and still owns the whole neighborhood and Cub fans get an owner that might loosen the purse strings.

If we tank, we can hire Renteria until we get good again.

Not totally blowing it up, but how about KB and Kimbrel for Dominic Smith and Familia. I included Familia to give them a little break on Kimbrel's salary. We would end up saving about $25 million.

A lot of interesting names on the list, especially in the bullpen: Climber, Dominguez, Guerra, Brebbia, Heller, Alexander, Claudio. Of course Gray would look good in the rotation. Maybe Camargo as utility/3B depending on what happens with KB and Bote.

Now Hoyer can trade KB & Schwarber and PTR will allow him to sign 1 FA @ less than $3 million.

I'm not surprised. Why should he try to weave through this off season while dealing with financial restrictions when he has lots of other options out there.

We could solve the problem If only we could turn back time (when money was flowing) and KB would get us 2-3 good young players/prospects that could step right in and contribute to the ML roster. Unfortunately, those days aren't happening this off season.

I still do not get the thinking, BN's writers like to do this too, that the Cubs will dump their current starters because budgetz to then go pay more money in FA for older starters. How does that work? Are they looking to be competitive in 2021 by signing those guys? The budget is keeping them from adding to a team that clearly has some flaws, shortcomings, redundancies, etc. The only way to change that and still try and win without bottoming out is to move on from one of the better/more expensive players and use that money/trade capital to deepen the roster. Not saying I like it, but I get it. Moving KB for Kieboom (or whatever prospect(s) you want to consider) and NT'ing Schwarbs free's up about $30 mil, it also gives you a player(s) for KB who you presumably control longer. I think there's a decent argument that whatever KB returns + 2-3 of DJ, Eaton, Wong, Brantley, other NT/FA position players and a non Bauer FA SP for that ~$30 mil can give us a more competitive team in 2021 vs just running it back with the core and a few Kipnis level FA adds on the margins. But everything I have read sounds like PTR wants to cut payroll and not trade $30 million to spend the same money on 2-3 other players. They will have a competitive team (in a lousy division) for 2021 without making any changes.

I have trouble believing that trading off our veterans in the age of COVID is going to get "equal" talent. Obviously, all of the owners are tightening the purse strings and are reluctant to give up good young players/prospects. It's going to be interesting to see what Theo can do in his last year. I don't think he wants to go out with a mediocre team.

From MLBTR: "As for the Rays, they picked up the younger, 19-year-old Martinez who now ranks as their No. 21 prospect at MLB.com and Baseball America as well as their No. 31 prospect at FanGraphs. The lack of a minor league season makes it impossible to really evaluate the younger Martinez’s 2020 season. That said, he posted a .311/.388/.437 slash through 233 plate appearances back in 2019 and adds some depth to the lower levels of one of MLB’s best farms." If he ranks #21 or #31 in the Rays system, he would probably be close to the top 10 in our system.

As I've posted before, Theo leaving and us getting a good, young player as compensation would be fantastic. Neither Theo nor Hoyer is going to fill the holes with high-priced stars with little/no trade value and PTR refusing to loosen the purse strings.

How? I don't get why this guy having money and being willing to spend money on FAs when no one else is opens the door to him spending prospects, especially for a team only now bouncing back their MiLs after trading Kelenic If he misses out on the FAs he wants or decides KB is worth a shot, he might be willing to make a deal. There aren't any guarantees, but a bounce-back season by KB for a team wanting to contend would be a bargain.

Of course the Cubs' "most reliable reliever" is the guy who got the oblique injury at the end and not the guy who was in the midst of building a HoF resume notsolongago and closed his season in a dominant fashion. I get why, whathaveyoudoneformelately is very flexible and effective, but still. Despite the multi-year multi-pitcher run under Hottovy we must still question the Cubs' ability to get quality results out of castoffs. This is said after calling former castoff Wick the most reliable...Finishes that one thing we can know for sure is that Theo Epstein "faces one of his greatest challenges" (a real thing said!!) trying to put together one more badass baseball team with a roster that already has Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Craig Kimbrel, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward....Very scary stuff, boogity boogity Going back to your post about Cohen and the Mets, if he's going to spend crazily to make an impression, we ought to try to take advantage of that.