Contract has a lot to do with it. Ideally or not, he was signed as the 4th starter if anything. 5th starter has been discussed as a battle between Miller, Prior and kids ever since November. If he was a 5th starter then his status wouldn't have been as locked down as it is. There was never any question that he'd be in the major league rotation. He's not a 5th starter. His contract demands that he does a whole hell of a lot more than put up a 95 ERA+ type of season to be considered to have "done his job". I disagree, and I base it on all the other pitching salaries that were signed this offseason. Look at some of them that were around Marquis: Name Last 3 years ERA+ Adam Eaton-87, 90, 92-3 years, 24.5 million Miguel Batista-101, 109, 104-3 years, 25 million (note: being 36 by the time the season starts this year has a lot to do with his contract) Vincente Padilla-96, 96, 104-3 years, 33.75 million Mark Mulder-106, 117, 62-2 years, 13 million Orlando Hernandez-136, 87, 95-2 years, 12 million (40 years old) Here's Marquis-113, 103, 73-3 years, 21 million All of these players have something bad about them, which is why they signed for as little as they did. For Batista and Orlando, it's age. For Eaton, it's just that he hasn't been good. For Marquis and Mulder, it was being terrible in 2006. Padilla has been a little better but still not great, but he got more money than everyone else on this list. How many people on this list could you reasonably expect to be over 100 ERA+ this season? 1/3 of them? The money Marquis got in the most current pitching market is consistent with a slightly below average pitcher. Therefore, if he performs like that, he'll be right at what the market says he should be at. Edit: BTW, that's all the salaries that are around him. I didn't just pick out the bad ones-I tried to pick out 2-3 year deals that were around the money per year that Marquis is making, and I think I got all of them. That is the whole market for paying that type of money to a pitcher.