CubColtPacer

who cares? on paper the bullpen looks to be one of the better ones in the league, with or without a "truly dominant closer." let the reds have cordero at $10.5M per; let the brewers have gagne at $10M. our bullpen should be just as good, and probably cheaper than at least the brewers' pen and possibly cincy's too. The point wasn't a lament of the lack of closer. Rather, it seems like a pretty steep price when the bulk of it isn't being absorbed by some guy throwing bullets at the end of the game with a track record to support a hefty salary. Having a number of $3M-$5M relievers isn't ideal, IMO. Look at recent contracts for relievers in the $12M range: Hawkins, Eyre and Remlinger have had horrendous years in the midst of their respective contracts, yet we continue to give out big dollars for extended periods to relievers. Dempster is a joke, and has been despite his save percentage (which is a farce). I can accept an argument that Howry is worth his contract, but he has had his shaky moments. The point is simply this: mid-range contracts add-up and the Cubs ought to learn from their mistakes. Bullpens ought to be stocked from within the organization with the bulk of their guys earning less than $3M, or, at the very least, not have extended commitments at +$3M. You could argue that the Cubs have learned from the mistakes of Eyre and Dempster though. They have only given out 2 deals of over 1 million to relievers in the past 2 years (Ohman and Wood). Ohman was a 2 year deal for a relatively small amount that they traded away after year 1. Wood is a larger deal, but only a 1 year commitment. The team hasn't continued to give out extended commitments to relievers for quite a while now. The big test will come after 2008, when Howry, Dempster, Eyre, and Wood all come off of the books. How many multi-year deals will be spent to replace them? If it's more than 2, I think you'll have a greater point about the Cubs learning from their mistakes. Right now, they're just living with their past mistakes (and Howry has been anything but a mistake, he has earned every penny and more. To have a dependable guy who is consistently and significantly above league average from year to year is worth a lot in this market, even for a bullpen guy).

They're not getting out of the whole 8 mil. St. Louis is sending cash as part of the deal to pay for part of his contract.

From all I've heard, while Donaldson is still learning the position and is in some ways still very shaky defensively, there is no real expectation that he'll have to move off of the C position. He has the natural skills and instincts, and now it's just a matter of experience and teaching to get him better defensively behind the plate.

his experience as a high school baseball coach gives his opinion as to the psyche of a professional player he's never met respect? not from me. He has seen plenty of pitchers lose it on the mound, and has a greater idea than the average fan of what little things to look for to get an indication of that. Sure, professionals lose it a lot less than high schoolers. If you know a person, that also makes it easier to tell, and obviously Cuse doesn't know Prior. Body language experts would tell you that doesn't matter all that much though. There are many traits that all people do in similar situations if you know what you're looking for, and Cuse has seen examples of it so many times that he has a better chance of noticing a little detail than almost anyone else. So yes, I do believe his profession gives him an edge on noticing something like this. Right now I disagree with him, but his opinion is not absurd.

Here is the latest report from one of the Orioles insiders talking about Roberts: That's it right now, so hopefully we'll hear more explanation is if that's temporarily staying or staying through the whole offseason later. To be fair, there seem to be other sources who still think the trade will be going through eventually.

You guys are right and I'm wrong. What more is there to say? I want you, just once, to support your claim in some way other than some blanket statement about it being your opinion. Is that a lot to ask? How can he support it in the format of this board though? I'm sure that if he had access to the game tape of Prior's starts during that time period and could post it here, Cuse could show you what differences he saw at the time between Prior's body language/throwing motion after he had been hit a few times. Unfortunately, that isn't really available, so all he can give you is his opinion from his experience. BTW, I happen to disagree with Cuse on the overall point, but his experience gives his opinion added respect IMO. His opinion is not such a completely unreasonable thing to be dismissed out of hand just because he doesn't have the access to support it here. It's certainly possible that Prior did, and it's certainly possible that he did not. Unfortunately, the access to game tapes that we have means that it won't likely be proven either way anytime soon.

I can't believe the AFC South this year. The Texans get to 7-7, and that's good enough for last in the South. It wasn't supposed to be nearly this difficult of a division, but teams like the Texans have grown up quickly. If they were in any other division, they'd be a playoff team. (7-3 outside the division, 0-4 inside the division).

I think it's the pitchers/hitters thing. When a general fan talks about steroids, he wants to mention Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Giambi, etc. All of them are hitters. All the people Congress called to testify that they actually suspected were hitters. Even though more pitchers have been caught for steroid use than hitters, pitchers are much more easily believed that they are using it to "help with injuries" rather than to gain a true competitive advantage by being able to hit the ball farther. It's a double standard, but for some reason fans only care about steroids with sluggers, and not steroids with pitchers or steroids in other sports.

What's the third one supposed to signify? I'm trying to find the sad one who understands, which choice if any should I pick?

Who you missing? Cedeno as the second infielder off of the bench and primary backup SS. Thanks for the correction. That's assuming he doesn't get traded for Roberts, but he hasn't been in the latest rumors. For TT: the 5 man bench excludes Pagan for now if they get Mench. If they have to have a backup for CF, then the bench is done already (Cedeno, Ward, Murton, Pagan/Fuld, Blanco). If they don't (if Fukudome is that backup) that opens up another spot for Mench.

If Murton is traded in a deal for Roberts, I'd definitely get Mench to be the right-handed pinch hitter off of the bench. That would require that Fukudome move to CF though when Pie gets days off, and I'm not sure if the Cubs are willing to do that. If they are, then I'd have the bench as DeRosa, Ward, Mench, Cedeno, and Blanco.

I would compare Soto more to Cedeno than Theriot. Theriot never really had that big breakout year in the minors like Cedeno and Soto did. I do believe that Soto is much more ready for the majors than Cedeno was in 2006. At the same time, I agree with you that we need to adjust that .850 number down by at least 50 points and probably closer to 100 points.

As Bruce stated in his article this morning, there didn't seem to be much interest from other teams in terms of trading for Prior. Because the Cubs made it painfully obvious they were going to give him away for free. And we all know that all 29 of the other teams can sign him. I'm sure no team ever trades for a guy in July that is going to be a free agent the next season either. They wouldn't if he was going to be a free agent on August 1. I'm glad you can make not only all the decisions for the Cubs but for all of baseball too. Are you telling me guys that are going to be non tendered never get dealt now? You're letting emotion control you now. Craig Monroe is one example of that. The Cubs made it even more clear with Monroe than with Prior that they were going to non-tender him, and they still were able to trade him. Prior's medical reports must have scared away more teams than San Diego.

I don't think it really says anything other then he thought he could re-sign Dempster and Miller after their rehab, but he doesn't think he can re-sign Prior.

From what I have read he will not be healthy until mid-season. Then I would expect him to be very rusty and most likely not of much use to the major league team this season. If he wouldn't agree to a contract with a club option for next year then he can walk after this season anyway. So from the Cubs perspective they pay him a pretty good salary for another year just to get him rehabbed so he can cash in as a free agent in '09. If he would not take the two year contract then I can see why the organization decided it was better to cut him loose now. I would be very surprised if whatever team he signs with does not either get a two year deal (or one year with a team option for '09) or pays a lower amount in a one year deal than what the Cubs could have forced him to take. A rusty Mark Prior is still better than the back end of our rotation right now. Even if he only pitched half of August and Sept, he'd be well worth the money (which wouldn't be all that much). A month and a half is 1/4 of the overall season. For Prior to be worth 3 million over that time, he'd have to pitch like a 12 million dollar pitcher over that month and a half, which is a 4 ERA or a little better in the current market. I honestly don't think he'll be throwing that well until 2009 even if he does regain his form eventually. It will take quite a bit of time for his velocity and command to go back to what they once were. That's JMO though.

Even though I've reluctantly had to advocate this move, that doesn't mean that I'll miss you any less Prior. You gave us a great year (and some other great partial years) and will remain my favorite player from the 2003 team. I wish it could have worked out in Chicago, and wish you the best in all your future moves. Please go to the AL so I can root for you without having to worry about how it affects the Cubs.

BTW, one of the posts of the year over there: To say NSBB would explode would be the understatement of the year if ever a deal like that went down! I mean, he's completely serious with that post. I, uh, don't know what to say.

Let's see what happens with this deal. Before DeRosa plays 2nd on normal days Murton fills in at RF when either Fukudome or Pie need days off (Fukudome moves to CF and Murton in RF when Pie needs a day off) When DeRosa plays 3rd, 1st, or has a day off, Cedeno or Fontenot play 2nd. After Roberts plays 2nd DeRosa is the primary backup at 2nd, 3rd, RF, and CF (Fukudome moves to CF and DeRosa to RF when Pie needs a day off) The 200 to 300 at-bats that would go to Fontenot are gone. It's definitely an upgrade. If this deal goes through, I hope the Cubs could find a right-handed masher for the bench which would make the bench DeRosa, Ward, right-handed power hitter, Cedeno, and Blanco. The two biggest parts of this deal is how good do you feel about Aramis's health and can DeRosa also play some SS. If DeRosa is needed at 3rd or SS specifically for more than 40 games this year, then Roberts is enough of an upgrade overall to make that deal. If they don't feel DeRosa can play any SS at all and feel Aramis should remain healthy, then stand pat with what you have.

I think it's clear Hendry has no idea how to haggle. Why would you say that? That's significantly less than Baltimore was asking for at the beginning of negotiations.

It should be noted that James had even better predictions for Hill last year than those predictions.

The Cubs have been shopping him hard the last couple of weeks. If they can get anything at all for him, they'll deal him before the deadline.

Murton really has value. I wish he would play here, but I get why they are dealing him. He'll likely be part of the package that lands Hendry Brian Roberts. This seems less likely with the Orioles' acquisition of Luke Scott. The Orioles might use the Murton/Scott platoon that some of us hinted at (for the Cubs). If they do it will probably end up .290, 30 hrs, 100 rbi, .375 obp, .650 slg and cost them $1 million per year. I think you might have had a little misprint on the SLG there :D

On ESPN.com they have something that is kind of fun to play around with. You can rank any of the top 25 teams and organize them into a Sweet 16 playoff. You can then simulate the games using Accusore and see who wins each round, and then can re-do it over and over again if you want. One of my simulations wouldn't make meph very happy. Kansas, Florida, Missouri, and Hawaii were in the semi-finals. Then Kansas beat Florida, and Hawaii beat Missouri :D (Kansas beat Hawaii for the national title). Here's the link if anyone wants to use it: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/bowls07/bracket

No kidding. Easily above average at all 3 OF spots, the best defender in the game at SS, an elite defensive 1B, and above average D at 3B and C. Did you really just call Alfonso Soriano "easily above average" at playing defense? Easily?!? He's not pretty out there, but you can't really argue his range (when healthy) and arm. Not so good going back in the LCF gap, though. I probably wouldn't quite say "easily" either, but he's above average. Yeah, it's the "easily" that I am incredulous about. The fact that he's a LF plays a big part in it as well. If he were a RF, he probably would be average or maybe slightly above. As a LF, a lot of his competition are some pretty horrible OF's. Carlos Lee, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Barry Bonds, Chris Duncan, Luis Gonzalez are great examples of players who Soriano is much better than in the OF, and there are many more.

It's more of that the Cubs could afford to overpay for Tejada because a SS might be the missing piece to a long playoff run. The Astros aren't going anywhere with Tejada, and so they basically traded away a few possible promising prospects for a couple of mediocre seasons and maybe 1 lucky playoff berth. Who's to say they are done dealing? Maybe the since the Cubs have stepped it up they might too. The Astros have used up many of their pieces just in this deal however. They probably don't have enough left to make any more than 1 major trade without tapping into their current major league roster (which of course would be counterproductive to being better next year). Their farm system was terrible to begin with, and they just gave up a few of the more attractive pieces of it.