CubColtPacer

My best realistic hope is that Marshall is out and Patterson is in, but I think if I had to peg 1 name to be wrong it would be Marshall, and if I had to replace him it probably would be Murton. BTW, here is a Phil Rogers blog detailing the same things: http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2008/01/looking-like-a.html

BTW, one of the insiders who rarely posts just chimed in, and he leads support to what navigator said on the previous page along with why MacPhail might have said that it was "very inaccurate" Once again, put a lot of credence in this or none at all. It's certainly subject to change, as this whole strange process has a few times.

I do too, but I have no idea how they'd acquire all three. Say they do trade the Seans and Cedeno for Roberts. What is left of value to offer for Figgins and Burnett? Pie, Colvin ... what else? There's been rumors that DeRosa and Dempster combined could be a major part of the package for Burnett. The Blue Jays aren't exactly enamored with him at the moment. Burnett btw has an opt-out clause after this year, so that will also drive down his value. If they can get Burnett without using Pie (and if they're trading with the Blue Jays, Pie is almost useless to them) then they don't have to get Figgins. Figgins probably isn't going anywhere anyway at this point because the Angels haven't found another third baseman.

I think Gallagher goes in any deal..he's the centerpiece of it all. Orioles fans think that at most a name might be wrong. Other than that, they believe that MacPhail is just bluffing saying that the deal isn't official, which of course it's not. But they believe it is complete. The administrator of the site has checked with 2 different of his own sources and confirmed the deal (both sources said 100%) and he apparently doesn't post anything unless he's completely sure he won't be wrong, unlike the other insiders.

If this deal is true, then if it's a bad deal or not depends on what Hendry does next. He has to bring in another pitcher now of some kind, even if that pitcher is just one of those that we've talked about as competition for the 5th starter spot. It will also be interesting to see who they acquire to fill the backup IF spot. The Cubs paid fair value for this deal, the only problem is the depth at the positions they traded. So this deal cannot be properly evaluated in terms of how it helps the team until the depth question has been answered with other moves. I do think DeRosa has a decent chance to see decently significant time at SS by the end of the year (40 games started there or so), although a lot will depend on how much Lou has faith in whatever backup SS they bring in. I think DeRosa will only be an option if Lou is truly desperate, and I think Cedeno would have been the same way. As for the 5th starter spot, who knows if they were going to let Marshall pitch there anyway. That's another part that's hard to evaluate because it's hard to tell 1) if the Cubs were going to let these guys contribute anyway, if they weren't this deal becomes better, and 2) if the Cubs like one of the remaining young guys (Hart or Mateo) to make the leap and become a 5th starter option. Hendry supposedly had a grand plan at the beginning of the offseason. It involved 1) getting Fukudome 2) getting a left-handed middle infielder 3) getting another starter 4) possibly trading for Figgins if Pie is used in deal for starter So far he's over halfway finished. Hopefully he can finish the job, because the plan looks a lot better when it's complete.

Let's just say this. If you read the Hangout for any length of time and still didn't believe that they have some source, not only would you have to conclude that the insiders are pretty good at guessing, but also that they've pulled one of the greatest acting jobs in history. There have been plenty of people that have admitted that they mainly come to read the insider information, and have been doing so for years. The board's regular people believe in them. The board's administrators believe in them, and I believe they have been informed on who the sources specifically are. Many Oriole fans sit there during key times and wait anxiously for an update from one of them. I've honestly never seen anything like it, and I've seen lots of people come on to boards and claim to have sources. We all have, and most of them turning out to be completely false have made all of us extremely unlikely to trust anybody who claims that. Why not? It's a rumor like many rumors are posted on here. It was listed right up front that the source had not been found to be reliable and so the information could not be trusted. As far as I know, 1 Insider has said today is the day exactly once 3 weeks ago. On that day, the other Insiders disagreed with him. Then right after that was the Christmas holiday, which made people antsy and think this process was actually dragging longer than it has (because half of the time people weren't working). Since they went back to work, it has been heating up again. Last night and today, the insiders have said "it's close", it will "probably be done later this week or early next week" and "paperwork has been exchanged, but it won't be done in the next few hours". None of those ever said that today would be the day. You should be a skeptic. Just because they posted it doesn't mean the Roberts deal is going to go down. Even if they know their stuff, their source may be wrong on this particular issue. Their source may not have all the information, or something may change (as is common in MLB front offices) before things are done. Trades can sometimes fall through or be made at the last minute. The Cubs are no stranger to that. I wouldn't be ordering Roberts jerseys just yet, but the fact that all their sources believe the deal has progressed quite a ways means the chances are good that Roberts will be a Cub. Believe as little or as much as you want. You certainly have the right to be a skeptic. The information posted here does not have to be believed, but it is for the benefit of those who want to know without wading through the thousands of posts over there. I understand some people probably still won't trust the information even if this deal does go through, and that's fine. It's not about validating these people, it's about getting potential info out early, which is one reason why people are on this board. Most of the newspaper writers are never right and yet their speculation is posted on here constantly. At the worst, that's really all this is, and it has the potential to be much more than that depending on how you perceive the record of these insiders.

That is true. None of the Orioles insiders have said today. One of them said soon, one of them said a few days, and one of them said not soon (and clarified that he didn't mean hours but more like days). All of them agreed that the deal was Marshall, Gallagher, Cedeno...and a couple of them said that paperwork had been exchanged. That doesn't mean the deal is going to happen, but these facts remain. 1) There are a lot more posters on there then there is on NSBB (check out how many people they have vote on polls-a poll started today had 257 votes, and that's not unusual). 2) These posters give a great deal of respect to these insiders, and they have been doing so for years. The level of respect on there is around the same that people on here give to Bruce. Now some of us could search through and find every deal that these insiders have gotten completely right beforehand. Simple logic tells us though that they have sources. If they didn't, they would have been discredited years ago by the large community over there. Imagine if we had a person come on here labeled as an insider. If they didn't get things right, would we continue to listen to him? Yet they hang on every single word their insiders say. The insiders have had to give them information that has made them justify that faith. Obviously of course their sources are sometimes mistaken, or sometimes things change before they become official. This deal could still fall through. I have every belief it is likely (more than 70 percent) to happen within the next week though because of what the insiders say, and especially now that they are telling a very consistent story.

From the Padres standpoint: Wilson is a big downgrade from Greene. Hairston and Nady are similar players with Nady having a little more value. Fuld/Patterson have limited value. Padres say: No From the Cubs standpoint: Greene is a huge upgrade. Hairston is a good backup OF. The Cubs give up some limited value players such as Fuld and Patterson, and some very little value players in Theriot and Fontenot. Cubs say: Absolutely Yes Pirates: Theriot is a decent downgrade from Wilson Fontenot is a bench player with little future value. Patterson/Fuld maybe develops into Nady Veal is an interesting piece with value but with a lot of question marks Pirates say: No Fontenot is essentially worthless in any deal. A 27 year old second baseman who puts up a .750 OPS, only plays second base, and is not good defensively is not exactly a commodity. Theriot is a little better but only has true value if a G.M. truly values his grit factor. Otherwise, players of his caliber aren't that hard to find, and so his value is very limited. Fuld has some value, but his projections are still giving him the upside of a 4th outfielder. He's not going to be anything more than a sweetener to any deal. Patterson would be the best piece of the 4, but he has major question marks around him. Patterson wouldn't be in any major deal as the centerpiece, but more like the 3rd wheel (such as the worst prospect in the original Roberts deal). I'm not even sure if the Cubs could get Jack Wilson straight up for those 4, let alone Greene and Hairston.

I always thought Alou had a decently strong and accurate arm in LF. I'm not surprised to see him listed in the bottom of that top 5. Besides, it's not like there's much competition left at that point for that position.

BTW, here is a shocker:

i wouldn't say that they'll both be drafted. one mock draft i saw (just the first one i found on google) has claxton in the second round and cornley undrafted. nba draft is only two rounds, and that includes four classes of college players along with foreign players. i do think that they'll both get invited to camps at the very least. neither guy is gonna be a real good scorer, but if they dedicate themselves to rebounding and defense, they can make a niche for themselves in the league. cornley's negative is his height (he's a forward and only 6'5") but he does have a wide body. Cornley is a less talented Wayne Simien. How many pro games has Wayne Simien played in? 51...what's your point?

How many runs does taking Fontenot's 250-300 AB's last year away from him and giving them to DeRosa do? And what if they don't plan to use Marshall as a SP anyway?

Alot over a two day period which was then halted because of the offices shutting down. Other than that, it's just been serious talks. I really don't know what else you want these guys to do, doesn't the whole Tejada info mean anything to their credibility? Exactly. This is really only time number 2 (maybe 3 if you count during the winter meetings, but there really was nothing to say that it was exceptionally close). It just happens that there were about 2 weeks in between the times that people really thought it would happen, and so it seems like forever.

BTW, a new Cubs source on the Orioles board (no idea on his reliability) says that his source says the deal is close. Acccording to him, the 3rd player will either be Marshall or Fuld, although his source believes it will be Marshall. Boy, I know it's not likely (that his source is correct, and even if he is correct that the unlikely even that it's Fuld happens) but if the deal is Cedeno/Gallagher/Fuld I'd be very, very happy with it.

I remember him having good stuff, but unfortunately for Beltran the thing I remember most about him was Sexon hitting that monster homerun off of him that broke part of the scoreboard.

I went to college in SEC country, and I remember one year talking about how there were a lot of good games on that weekend to a guy who had grown up in Georgia. He asked "what games?" I said a few games, like Texas-Oklahoma, Oregon-USC, etc. He looked at me strangely and said "Oh. I thought you meant games between real teams." Now, that's an extreme example, but I ran into that type of thinking over and over again.

I'm confused. This analogy would make sense if Roberts weren't better than DeRosa. He is. I expect better from you, SSR. It's more my annoyance that we(ot we we, the royal we, the idiot we) have been trying to marginalize DeRosa all offseason just for this purpose of making him our new Jose Macias. It's another sign of Cubs management fixing a hole that isn't there. Must get a leadoff hitter. Must get shiny happy clubhouse people. Must get a Japanese guy. Must get a lefty. Again, as I mentioned Roberts is better than DeRosa. Probably by a couple wins. But IMO, Gallagher and Marshall are better than Dempster and Marquis. Cedeno is better than Theriot. The original trade I wasn't that upset with(Marshall, Murton, Patterson?) Giving up 2 major league ready starting pitchers when you have holes in your major league starting rotation is nutty unless you're getting a huge upgrade in return. We are not. The Cubs not playing Cedeno or Marshall is a mistake. The Cubs not recognizing that they won't play Cedeno and Marshall and not getting value for them is an even bigger mistake. Maybe the absolute best Cubs team has Cedeno at short, Marshall in the rotation, and DeRosa at second. If the Cubs don't get another starter after the Roberts deal, that alignment would almost certainly be better. If the Cubs do get a starter, then it becomes a much tougher equation. If the team makes one mistake though and have given up on them, does it make any sense to keep them in limited roles just to hope for the small chance that they may get back in the good graces of the manager? I'd rather they get value now rather than sap any value they have by not playing them for another season or two. Then the Cubs would finally deal them, and the complaints would begin that the Cubs dealt them at their lowest possible value.

The only way it would be comparable to the Myers situation is if the Cubs said they were going to have Mike Fontenot start in order to have DeRosa move around. The main part of the problem was not that they were minimizing Myers impact, but they were letting vastly inferior players get the extra playing time. In the Roberts case, the Cubs limit DeRosa's personal impact a little bit, but they get better both at second base and get better on the bench. The one good thing about Cedeno leaving is that if Theriot bombs, Lou might get more desperate without Cedeno backing him up, and that might lead to DeRosa getting time there or a trade during the season. Last season showed that if Lou doesn't have an obvious option in front of him, he tends to get creative. And I don't see how DeRosa is a bad corner outfielder backup. His bat isn't terrible for the position and his defense is pretty good there (remember Texas thought that RF was his best defensive position).

This team more than any other team in baseball should be concerned with rotation health risks. I do like Burnett, but he's a health risk. Plain and simple. A team that should be worried about acquiring pitchers with health risks are those who already have pitchers who have health risks. The Cubs aren't that team. If Burnett was acquired, he'd be the only pitcher in the Cubs rotation who has pitched less than 180 innings in either of the last 2 years. That's a great durability rating for a rotation. Sure, the remaining innings probably won't be great production (either Dempster, Hart, or Mateo would be the next ones in line) but there's a shot that Dempster won the starting job anyway if a starter isn't acquired. If Burnett puts up 150 innings next year (which is reasonable) than the last 50 innings would have to be absolutely awful for the overall spot to be worse than league average. The replacement pitcher would probably have to have an ERA around 6 just to make the overall rotation spot as league average.

I think we're stuck with that anyway if we don't pick up someone else. Those two would have to be Wade Miller-esque to lose their jobs to the kids, IMO. Hell, we had Steve Trachsel taking Marshall's starts in the middle of a pennant race. I could definitely see Dempster losing his starting position to Hart. Lou has been a lot more optimistic when talking about Hart then when he talks about Dempster.

I'll echo what's been said: if the conditions are nice, the Pats will likely roll over the Jags. Agreed, and we won't really know until Saturday about the conditions. I remember in 2004 when the Colts went up to play there, and it was supposed to be perfect conditions for the game as was reported all week. Then they showed a shot of the field 15 minutes before gametime and it was snowing. The 2 teams only attempted 2 passes over 15 yards all day long, and 1 of those was a heave on the final play that didn't come anywhere close to its target. That's the type of conditions the Jaguars will need on Saturday. They are physical enough to keep up with the Pats in tight spaces, but they can't let the Pats space them out which the Pats could easily do in good conditions.

At the same time, they can't stand Cedeno or Marshall. Most of the Orioles fans over there do not like the deal nearly as much because Murton and Patterson were taken out and in their opinion two substantially inferior prospects were put in instead.

Pagan started over Pie around 4-5 days when both were on the team. That's hardly a significant chunk. Even if Pie had been the starter, Pagan would still have gotten exactly the time he did. Pagan was brought onto the team for a very specific role, to play CF against left-handers. He would have done that if Jones or Pie was the starter.

I think that last part is the only reason people are giving the Jaguars a chance. The Jets did it in horrible conditions because Brady couldn't pass the ball well at all. If the conditions are even decent for passing, New England will blow out the Jags. If they aren't, it could be interesting.

Eric Patterson doesn't have much trade value right now. While Marshall isn't a prospect anymore, his value is really high...it's quite a bit to give up for an improvement at an already steady position (giving up two potential starters and our only hedge against a full year of Theriot at SS). You don't think Beane might take the slightest of interest in Murton or Patterson (considering they might deal Ellis, and Beane isn't crazy about defense)? Yeah, they've kept Mark Kotsay around for his awesome bat. I'm sure teams were dying to add his 8 million salary to their payroll. I'm sure you've read the book, Beane will sacrifice defense for certain hitting characteristics. Beane has also come out in interviews and said that his recent teams have been specifically built around starting pitching and defense. I don't think Beane ignores defense that much. At the same time, if Beane thinks Patterson can be had for cheap, I'm sure he'll come calling. He's willing to sacrifice defense if he can get somebody for less than he thinks they're worth.