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Just to put a little bit out there, Bill James projections Lieber to have a 4.04 ERA. Not sure what park or team he's putting him on. This prediction seems really inaccurate. Chone projects him as a 4.63 ERA. Again, not sure what park or team. Marcel projects him at a 4.74 ERA. Not sure what park or team. ZIPS projects Lieber to have a 4.85 ERA (in Philadelphia). Add park factors and a much better defense in Chicago and that projection probably moves down to 4.60 or better. PECOTA's of course haven't come out yet. The projections have him at right about league average for a starting pitcher. I would be interested to see what happens if they re-ran those projections now that he's a Cub. At the same time, pitcher projections are still very, very shaky.

If your #5 starter can give you a great shot at an ERA under 5, that's typically better than most teams. Lieber has had an ERA under 5 each of the last 11 years. He is regressing, but at the same time he is moving from a horrible ballpark to pitch in and a ballpark he always struggled in, and he's moving to a ballpark he dominated in. His away numbers the last 3 years: 2005: 4.05 ERA, 115.2 IP, 111 H, 81:21 K/BB, 1.25 HR/9, .251/.288/.422 OPS against 2006: 4.64 ERA, 77.2 IP, 90 H, 43:15 K/BB, 1.39 HR/9, .289/.325/.460 OPS against 2007: 4.19 ERA, 38.2 IP, 36 H, 25:15 K/BB, 0.46 HR/9, .248/.327/.366 OPS against Even if he put up his 2006 away numbers or even worse than that, he'd still be a pretty good option for the 5th starter. When you look at his home half of his starts, a good note would be that Lieber was significantly better in Wrigley Field than outside of Wrigley Field when he was a Cub. Wrigley has a great shot to improve his numbers once again just like Philadelphia devalued his numbers. Now, the concern with Lieber. The declining K/BB rate, and the injuries. He is definitely regressing, but the injuries may have made his regression on the K:BB rate artificially inflated. The injuries are still a concern though, and I doubt Lieber gets through the full season without spending some time on the DL. With just a somewhat low priced one year deal though, that's fine. He'll still be a good 5th starter option for this team, even without the nostalgia factor, and the two biggest reasons why are consistency and park factors.

The Cubs return the same pitchers who gave them the 2nd best staff in the N.L. last year. I think 4th is very fair even with the regression of some of the pitchers, especially if Zambrano steps up like the magazine thinks he will and becomes a top half #1 again. The only huge concern is the 5 spot. Z is a 1 or 2, Lilly is a 2 or 3, Hill is most likely a 2, Marquis is a 3 or 4 (he's been a 3 or better 3 of the last 4 years), and the last starter is a question mark. The Cubs ranking could vary wildly depending on who that last starter is (and which Marquis shows up, the one from 04/05/07, or the one from 03/06), but it is very likely that the staff will be above average once again. But its not the same pitchers because Marshall and his 3.92 ERA is seemingly being benched for Dempster. I just think the Giants and possibly Dodgers rotations are better. True, but really it's Marshall+Guzman+Miller+Trachsel. Those 7 stats by Trachsel and Miller are killers on the overall ERA out of the 5 spot (5.10 combined out of the 5 spot last year). Whoever mans the 5 spot this year has a decent shot to come very close to that 5.10 if not a lot better. Now that it looks like we will sign Lieber, he has a very good shot at actually making the 5 spot better than it was last year.

The Cubs return the same pitchers who gave them the 2nd best staff in the N.L. last year. I think 4th is very fair even with the regression of some of the pitchers, especially if Zambrano steps up like the magazine thinks he will and becomes a top half #1 again. The only huge concern is the 5 spot. Z is a 1 or 2, Lilly is a 2 or 3, Hill is most likely a 2, Marquis is a 3 or 4 (he's been a 3 or better 3 of the last 4 years), and the last starter is a question mark. The Cubs ranking could vary wildly depending on who that last starter is (and which Marquis shows up, the one from 04/05/07, or the one from 03/06), but it is very likely that the staff will be above average once again.

That's less about his talent and more about who is picking first, and the fact that their best player happens to be a RB.

He didn't play the full season. Only 1 IP in the regular season and 7 so far in the playoffs. In those 8 innings, he's given up exactly 1 hit, 0 runs, 14 strikeouts, and 0 walks. That's pretty good I think :D

cool. Hopefully by getting this up early, we should be able to get enough people lined up. Go ahead and add Exile as a second person for the Colts Vance (we talked about it in the other thread). Thanks so much for all your efforts in organizing this.

If the Cubs were willing to let Fukudome play center, they wouldn't need another corner outfielder. They'd just use Murton. The fact that they are chasing a backup CF suggests they are not comfortable moving Fukudome, which is why they possibly would want Payton over Huff.

Hill was re-signed quite a while ago. He seems to be the first catcher that will be called up from the minors with an injury, and of course clubs always love to see as many catchers as possible come to spring training. The two names I like to see on that list are Ceda and Donaldson. I think they can get some good experience in ST.

Have you been talking to Ryan or Mike? Cause the Bayou Basher isn't a Cub any longer. Huh? Who isn't a Cub? Todd Walker. I see. That's what was strange about it. When I searched for Bayou Basher, the first thing that popped up was an article or two about Mike Fontenot, and the second reference to Bayou Basher was an article or two about Ryan Theriot. Nowhere on the first two pages of results is a reference to Todd Walker as the Bayou Basher. Since the term seemed to reference two current Cubs, it didn't make sense that he said the Basher was not a Cub anymore without some type of knowledge.

Have you been talking to Ryan or Mike? Cause the Bayou Basher isn't a Cub any longer. Is that sarcasm, knowledge of something upcoming, or some technicality I'm not noticing? Out of all the strange posts in this thread especially the last 10 pages, this one had me thinking, so I'm just trying to clarify.

Penn State can rebound, but they can't shoot foul shots, so Wiscy just needs to "hack-a-shaq" them and they'll win Unless the Badgers are down towards the end of the game, they just don't foul. They are very sound fundamentally, don't reach, and move their feet. They play great man to man, position defense. I hate them. Wisconsin has always been fundamentally sound. I think Bo Ryan could coach a team of walk-ons to 20 wins. Always a tough matchup for IU because they don't make mistakes. Bo Ryan is the best coach in the conference. Wisconsin is superbly coached. Interesting games for both 3-0 Big Ten teams this week. Wisconsin at Penn State tonight, and Indiana at Minnesota Thursday night. The Barn has been a veritable house of horrors for IU historically, and Tubby has had great success against the Hoosiers (though mostly against the incompetent Davis). This will be IU's toughest, most likely loss since playing Xavier. If either team moves to 4-0, they'll be ahead of the curve. Ohio State at Michigan State tonight is also a big game. Minnesota really hasn't beaten anybody to date, unless you count Penn State, which didn't play very well. I think IU wins that game easy, D.J. White and Gordon will have big games. I think IU fans would be worried about a game at Minnesota if they were playing a Minnesota middle school team. IU has been better than Minnesota most of the last 10-15 years, and yet they've been absolutely terrible up there. It's a really cool court, but it's just turned into a house of horrors for the Hoosiers, including a long pass that probably would have tied the game in OT smacking off of the scoreboard and going straight out of bounds a few years ago.

I don't mean to steal your thunder, but I'll convene with you, if you want. Not that I don't trust you, just that any discussion of Colts drafting is of great interest to me. I would love to have another person to discuss with. You're not stealing my thunder at all.

I don't understand the point of the trade either. Padilla isn't that much of a better bet in the rotation than Marquis. Most of the Cubs money in 2008 has already been spent, so the savings for this year won't help very much. There is a serious budget crunch in 09, and this trade would only make that worse. Plus, Dempster could have some positive value in a trade or as a reliever (it's small but it's there), and Cotts is at least depth that can be stashed away in AAA. Basically the only positive from this trade is 40 man space. I'd much rather have the extra money to spend in 09 than this year though especially when you see how many of the Cubs contracts escalate next year.

We're not exactly fielding the same team as last season. Pie will finally be given the chance to start everyday..he's a question mark on his production. Soto is the same way. Will the pitching be once again one of the best staffs in the National League, and if not, which pitcher is going to cause that? There are a lot of people on the Cubs roster that are currently slated to start that have potential for great upside, but also potential for great downside. By the deadline we'd have a better idea which ones became good everyday players and which ones need to be replaced.

I could be in a war room for the Colts. I don't know the prospects well, but I know what things the Colts are looking for. If I have to, I can also be the first person for this thing. I did research the prospects last year to make the picks. It just gets harder to research when it hits the third round.

To say up front, Sanders should not have done what he did whatsoever when he drew the taunting flag in the second quarter. It was an easy flag. I was glad to read this though: http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080114/SPORTS03/801140377&theme=

Or maybe we could get Marquis' contract off the books? Just a question here and its probably been talked about and thought of way before I did. But would Marquis be a decent middle innings guy? He's durable, throws hard and is an innings eater. Just thinking out loud!!! Any way to lessen Marquis innings would be a good thing, however Marquis isnt known to be a real accomadating guy. When things arent the way he wants them, he is usually pretty vocal about it, so I highly doubt he'd accept a bullpen role quietly. He does work for the Cubs, though, so if the Cubs say he's a middle reliever then he's a middle reliever. Let him pout and sulk all he wants. The more he pouts though the more he throws his fastball and his fastball only. He can't control his fastball on a regular basis though, so he'll walk more people and give up lots more runs if he doesn't mix up pitches. So in a desperate situation I'd make Marquis a middle reliever, but if you do that you might as well cut him. He's not going to be effective in that role.

Right, plus Sampson has a track record of having his teams play better in the postseason than they did in the regular season. Oh wait.... Is that the best you have? :wink: I didn't predict anything. Just mentioned that its foolish to saw how IU will do 2 months from now based on one game in the mid January. I honestly think you will win one game in the tournament. One. Oh and before you go there we won't make any tournament. None. Before the season, you thought it was "absurd" that Gordon would make first team all Big Ten, and that Sampson would "kill" Gordon like he does all his talented players (despite not having really coached any). I don't think IU is a top-5 team, but they're better than they showed today. I thought today would be tough. Regardless, I'm not putting much faith in your predictions regarding IU. Illinois once again proves a tough matchup for IU. I think it has a lot to do with Pruitt, who with his size matches up and basically neutralizes DJ White. Weber is also a very good coach. I think I said it was absurd to count on a freshman being an all big ten performer before he ever plays a college game. I still think it is. Gordon is going to be that though. If you think Sampson is doing his best to prepare EJ for the pros than your nuts. How many shots did he take today? Not nearly enough for a guy who was the best player on the floor. EJ should pretty much shoot 50 percent of your shots. He isn't, thus Sampson is in a sense sitting on him. Sampson has been pleading with Gordon to take a greater percentage of the teams shots the last few games. He even publicly stated that's what he wanted. Whatever is keeping Gordon from being more selfish with the ball (which would probably help IU), it isn't Sampson. As for the no zone thing, IU has looked absolutely awful with the zone this year. Last years team did pretty well with the zone, but this years team plays a very loose zone. The one zone play they did today looked a lot like the zone looks I've seen in other games, so I was glad to see them take it out again.

Awesome game Chargers. They deserve it. With all the injuries they suffered and the way they just kept fighting, there should be nothing but praise for their accomplishment for that game. They made the plays when they needed to, and that was enough to win the game.

That was a don't get fired drive by Turner. If your backup QB messes up on a pass, it's Turner's fault. If the defense gives it up, it's the defense's fault. That was an amazing punt btw, and the Chargers coverage unit seems pretty unbelievable right now. Peyton's looking everywhere and having trouble finding anybody.

You could say the same thing about the stats from both QB's last night though as well. No pass defense has been good this weekend in the AFC, and if NE has good weather next week the AFCCG will be a shootout.

Hasn't this been a very strange game? There have been a lot of big plays and a lot of very close calls. There's really only been two calls that I've seen that were absolutely awful that weren't reversed (illegal contact called on the Colts when it was actually PI on the Chargers in the first half, PI on the Chargers in the second half). The call near the end of the first half is probably somewhere in the middle. I'm hoping this game doesn't end on another close call though. Win or lose, I hope this last 9 minutes does not have the same sorts of close calls like most of the game has.

Hell CCP, he didnt even touch the reciever to impede him. He ran directly into his path (I just looked at the replay, and he ran straight into him). If the ball had gotten there later, it would have made more sense. But it didn't, and it was an absolutely awful call. The contact didn't come until after the ball passed.

Now that's a pretty terrible call. Impeding the progress of a receiver is interference, but the ball was already there. It shouldn't have been called whatsoever.