No its not that crazy. I'm not sure they actually do that, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least considering the somewhat strong play, and the weak schedule. Plus you factor in Luck probably improving as the season progresses. Looking at the AFC, the teams that I think have no chance at the playoffs are Cleveland, Kansas City, Tennessee and Jacksonville. That leaves 9 teams to fight for 3 spots (assuming NE, BAL, HOU are locks). Those 9 teams are SD (3-2), CIN (3-2), PIT (2-2), IND (2-2), NYJ (2-3), BUF (2-3), MIA (2-3), DEN (2-3) and OAK (1-3). What a pack of mediocre to bad teams. I guess with a gun to my head I'd go SD (west), DEN and PIT. And the thing is, I don't like any of those 3 teams that much...they just aren't that good. It might not be crazy, but I'm still not expecting any more than five or six wins from the Colts. They lost at home to one of the worst teams in the NFL (Jacksonville). They've only played one road game and were dominated (though against a good team). Sure, they beat Green Bay but that was an emotional aberration, in my opinion, from Pagano's absence (don't think that can really be carried over week to week). The schedue isn't exactly murderer's row though, that's for sure. I wasn't surprised by the Jacksonville loss. The Colts still have in many parts the same defensive personnel that Jacksonville has run over for years, which is what has led to the endless number of close games with them. I'm not projecting 9. I'd guess 7 right now (2-3 against the rest of the division, 2-2 against the AFC East, 1-1 against Cleveland/Kansas City, 0-1 against Detroit). I could see 6 (with only 1 win against the East being the most likely scenario) but I don't think 5 is particularly likely at this point. There are too many teams left on the schedule who are on or maybe even below the Colts level to have a good chance of going 3-9 the rest of the way. They only have 3 likely playoff teams left on the schedule at this point.