CubColtPacer

http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/01/16/scouting-report-allen-webster-rhp/

I find that very hard to believe. Unless you are basing it off those bogus "opening day payroll" numbers that USA Today and ESPN like to throw around. The numbers given in this thread are very close to the numbers Cots gives (although not quite the same). They update during the season with each new contract that is added to a payroll and are usually considered the gold standard for contract details (including money payouts to/from other clubs). Of course that just reflects money actually spent and not budget, but budgets would just be guesswork as teams are pretty tight lipped about such things.

According to Fangraphs he's been worth about $13.5 million thus far. Take that as you will. Fangraphs also has him as providing the 5th most defensive value in all of baseball (3rd most on a rate basis). He's certainly improved and was always underrated defensively to begin with, but that much? Soriano does currently have his best OPS+ number as a Cub though.

What are his numbers up to? He just made an out which made his numbers .263/.326/.382 for the season. His BB/K numbers are 23/23. BABIP of .271 on the season. And he's still 19. He'll be a very interesting guy to try to grade at the end of the season since he likely has very little power projection and middling results offset by several encouraging signs.

Insisting that he absolutely had to be sold at a time when he clearly had very little value, for starters. It's hard to argue with that. I doubt that his value could have possibly gone any lower than it was when we traded him. Zambrano had no value then, and he has no value now. I haven't heard any rumors on Zambrano. Have you? Why would the Marlins trade him? They're getting 200 innings of an average starting pitcher for pennies. Zambrano hasn't been average though. Well below average ERA+, and his peripherals are even worse. Fangraphs lists 101 qualified starters right now. Z is 77th in ERA, 91st in FIP, and 98th in xFIP. Over halfway through the season, BR has him at 0.7 WAR and Fangraphs has him at 0.6.

We're not getting a draft pick. He doesnt understand how the system works now. I don't really either, but with the last five days of news I've learned that we aren't going to get a pick out of this. Maybe WSR will figure it out in a month or two. Yeah we aren't getting a pick for him. The best thing we could have hoped for happened, then Demp [expletive] all over it. I hope he gets booed now. Had he been straight forward like Aramis was I wouldn't be this pissed. The Cubs might get a pick out of it. Nobody really knows how teams are going to value their draft budget vs upgrading their team now. Yes, they lose their first round draft slot budget, but they also don't have to sign their first round pick. So they lose a little bit of flexibility in under slotting pick 1 to spread it out for later, but they might feel it's worth it to add a pretty good starter. Of course, Dempster might not decline the offer, but if he does I think the odds are better than some others think of somebody choosing to sign him.

It doesn't take much evaluation to point out that a guy has thrived at each of the lower levels, plays a premium position, and is very young. As for the Castro comparison, the one thing that Amaya has on him, and seems to have had going for him all along is OBP, which this organization values highly. Second base is a premium position? In the only league Amaya and Castro have both played in (AZL at age 18), Castro walked 14 times in 215 PA while Amaya walked 13 times in 227 PA. Castro had a better IsoD wen you compare their rookie ball seasons. Castro showed better patience; Amaya had a higher OBP because he hit for better average but I think we all know Castro had and has a better hit tool. On the major league level, I would say second base is a premium position (or at least it should be). It's the third highest position player on the defensive spectrum behind SS and catcher, and it is the 2nd worst position in the majors for offense this year behind SS (4th last year, 3rd in 2010). People frequently put CF in as a premium position, but it is a slightly easier position on the spectrum that has hit a ton better at the plate the last few years than second base has. Maybe CF is actually harder in a vacuum, but right now a good second baseman is much scarcer and therefore more valuable. Now whether that can translate over to the prospect rank of a guy still in short season ball, that's much more debatable. Especially because of two things: since second basemen are undervalued around the league, a second baseman in the minor leagues is never going to have as much trade value as he should have, and second baseman also have a perception (at least partially based in reality) of having injury risk/longevity issues which would affect his ranking as well.

Well that would certainly suck. Would also make the "balancing out the money" side of things more interesting. Maybe we're taking on something a lot bigger? I can't imagine Theo would take Uggla, and he's the only guaranteed contract the Braves have next year (McCann and Hudson have small buyouts).

Well that explains it. Most scouts don't think Baez is going to be playing SS when he reaches MLB. Even if scouts weren't changing their minds on that, why would you rush that decision when it doesn't need to be rushed and provides no benefit? It does some provide some benefit to start learning the position earlier. But as one of the writers said recently, a SS/3B transition is one of the easier ones for a player to make. And the benefits of sticking at SS are so much more valuable than 3rd that you really shouldn't move a player until the chances are a lot lower than Baez's of sticking there.

There was nothing to get serious about; he doesn't want to play here. Just like he didn't want to play in LA? LA had been in and out as a place he might end up at. It's been pretty clear from the start that Chicago essentially had and has zero chance to keep him. Before this report, all the reports indicated Howard wanted no part of LA just as much as he did Chicago. In fact, one of the reports from last trade deadline said that Howard waived his player option in order to convince Orlando not to trade him to the Lakers. LA has stayed in the picture as has Houston because until now, LA didn't demand a Howard extension in order to pull off a deal.

So, what good stuff has he done? You already tried to attribute a WS team to him that he was not in charge of. Can't believe I'm going to defend Amaro, but the fact that he has put together a team that has averaged over 97 wins the past three seasons is something. Hasn't helped them in the crapshoot that is the playoffs, but the regular season win totals have been pretty legit. The Phillies payroll is also 74 million higher than it was in 2008. He was also handed a good farm system to make trades with. 5 of the 8 offensive starters were already there, and 2 starters as well. Amaro has done some good things, but he had a ton to work with. He also managed to take a team that should have been good both now and later, and instead the future has been turned into a huge question mark despite their 170 million dollar payroll. He's been using all his available resources on his current team over and over again with no regard for the future, and that's a terrible way to run a baseball team. And now the future is quickly catching up to him. Their payroll should partially save him, but it gets tougher as the hole continues to get deeper.

The whole point of the way the contract is structured is that the Bulls aren't allowed to pay Asik more than 5 million for the first two years since he doesn't have full bird rights and the Bulls are over the cap. This exception they've built into the rule gives the Bulls a chance to match if they want. I think if the Rockets actually got him, for salary cap purposes his money would be evenly distributed. But the Bulls aren't allowed to sign him to a contract with this total value that is evenly distributed because he would make too much money in year 1.

You can't get more money in sign and trades anymore. They knocked that loophole out in the last CBA. The most money a player can be offered in a sign and trade is the max of what another team could have given them anyway. And sign and trades starting next year can't be done with teams who are more than 4 million over the luxury tax (so for example, the Steve Nash trade to the Lakers would be illegal next year). So the incentive for the player to do a sign and trade is much less unless he wants to go to a club that doesn't have cap space to sign him, and in that case Orlando would have to take back salaries. LA if they're offering Bynum won't offer lots of picks and cheap players to go with him. That's where Houston potentially comes in. They have everything Orlando wants. They have cheap players (including 3 first round picks from this draft). They have players on non-guaranteed contracts that can be used to match up salaries and then Orlando can just cut them later for no penalty. And they have future picks to trade, which LA doesn't have as much of since they just traded for Nash. Orlando can rebuild much quicker with that combination.

we're going to get 50 walks from our whole infield combined ostensibly, rizzo by himself will get more than that. Likely, yes. He hasn't shown that in the majors yet (he's swung at anything and everything so far) but his minor league track record would suggest 50-65 walks in a full season. He also won't be seeing 80% first-pitch strikes his entire career. The first pitch strike percentage just tracks how many times the count goes to 0-1 or the first pitch is put into play. So if Rizzo swings at the first pitch, that's automatically a strike for that statistic whether the pitch would have been called a ball or not. Rizzo has swung at 59.7% of pitches so far (easily the most among position players) and he's swung at 49.5% of pitches outside the zone (also easily the most among position players). Obviously a very small sample size, but he's been really aggressive so far, which is reflected in his tiny walk and strikeout numbers.

Yeah, I know. I would be willing to take him, probably gives you a better shot this season, if Rose comes back, then take my chances he stays. Worst case scenario is he leaves and you're probably not much more than a .500ish team for a year, then it's 2014 anyway. And you've got the same situation, minus the option of keeping or trading Noah. I don't think there's even a chance; if they did it it would basically be with the idea he's only here a year. If Rose was healthy I'd be all for that. The question becomes where would he go after the year. The Nets likely won't have the cap room for Howard unless they make trades (right now the 3 of Johnson, Williams, and Wallace will make 48 million or so next year by themselves). The Lakers, Heat, Knicks will all have too much money committed. As much as he may dislike Chicago, what other city would he be excited about in order to turn down the extra money? Howard can kick and scream all he wants, but unless he gets what he wants this summer he's rapidly running out of options.

we're going to get 50 walks from our whole infield combined ostensibly, rizzo by himself will get more than that. Likely, yes. He hasn't shown that in the majors yet (he's swung at anything and everything so far) but his minor league track record would suggest 50-65 walks in a full season.

When you talk about this free agency period, are you talking about the one next year or the one two years from now? If next year, I don't see how they will have a difference making amount of space even with amnestying Boozer (and if the reports that Hinrich has a 2 year deal are true, that will further cut into their space). They'll have some space, but not max contract type space. They could clear some space by renouncing Gibson, but will they want to let Asik and Gibson go two years in a row? Two years from now they could have a large amount of space if they either don't keep Gibson after next year or renounce Deng. But if they choose to keep both of them, they'll probably have no space at all even with Boozer being amnestied.

A) I'm assuming the Bulls cant afford him B) Strangely enough SG is like the 3-4th most important thing to worry about this offseason after backup PG, probably replacing Omer and replacing Korver our only outside shooter. Because Reinsdorf is cheap and doesn't want to hit the tax. A) I'm assuming the Bulls cant afford him It wouldn't just be Reinsdorf being cheap in this case. Mayo has already said he is not even considering mid-level offers, which is all the Bulls can give him (and that's assuming they cut players to get below the luxury tax. If they don't, they can't even offer him that much). So either he'll have to come well down on his demands, or the Bulls would have to do some sort of sign and trade. And Memphis is only a few million from the luxury tax themselves, so it would have to be a very good incentive for them to take on any more salary. It's possible to get Mayo to Chicago, but it would be difficult.

Jokes aside, are you saying that if you were another club, you wouldn't take a risk on Soriano's knee for 5 million total over 2 1/2 years? That's a pretty small risk to take for a player who can still give you a decent reward if things continue to go right as they have in the first half of the year.

Are the contracts for Korver, Brewer, and Watson guaranteed yet with the new league year? If at least two of them are, then I think the Bulls will hit the luxury tax this year unless they do something to cut salary elsewhere.

Well, I'd certainly call Szczur's production this year higher. An .800 OPS in the FSL with a .390 OBP is better value than an .830 in the PCL with a .340 OBP, and it really isn't that close. That's even taking into account the fact that one is a somewhat raw 22 year old in high A while the other one is 23 in AAA. Then you look at the other factors. Jackson definitely has a much better minor league track record before this year. Jackson also has the higher ceiling, although Sczcur is more likely to stick in CF. But I think I'd label Sczcur as the safer one to hit his ceiling at this point because of Jackson's strikeout issues and the fact that Sczcur is going to get more value out of his defense (which is more easily projectable than offense). While Sczcur is still 2 levels below which throws more uncertainty in, his BB/K ratio and his speed should make him less prone to numbers collapsing at a higher level than some other prospects. So I'd probably give it to Jackson, but I could see people putting Sczcur ahead because there are so few comparables to what Jackson is doing right now. While Sczcur has definitely taken some big steps foward as a prospect this year, if you put him ahead of Jackson that's more of an indictment of Jackson than anything IMO.

Every person I've heard thinks the Pacers will match, although it isn't guaranteed. I can't see Hibbert being overpaid by enough in that scenario to be worth losing an asset for nothing. It's not like the Pacers are likely to be able to lure another quality player for a fair money deal.

Really surprised the Pacers would go for the workout warrior who performed better at the combine than he ever did on the court. Hopefully he can somehow make a decent backup C.

Zeller is apparently going to the Cavs.

Gordon wants to go to Indiana (partly since his little brother has just hit high school). But the Hornets hold all the cards since he's restricted and the Pacers owner doesn't allow the Pacers to offer restricted free agents offer sheets, so it is still somewhat a long shot.