wastra

I'd sign a new manager who is familiar with the new-line baseball thinking that considers objective numbers and favors them over "hunches". I don't follow managers closely, so someone else can supply a name here. My #1 roster priority would be the pitching staff. I'd want to land a top-flight starter first. Schmidt would be fine. I'd also advocate getting ANOTHER solid starter (#3-4 type...these type guys shouldn't be that rare). Zambrano Hill Schmidt New Pitcher Prior(if healthy)/Marshall, Guzman et al I'd bring Wood back if he'd accept the popular incentive laden bullpen deal WITH the understanding his goal is to ork as setup/backup closer as he bulds strength to re-join the rotation. Then give him incentives botha s a start OR close (i.e. innings pitched, games started, save, holds etc) recognizing that he would provide value if he reaches milestones at either. Obviously, starting milestones would pay more than relieving ones. I'd return the rest of the bullpen largely intact, although I might shop Dempster with the whole "he just needs a change of scenery" routine and look for a closer if someone bites- ala Latroy Hawkins to SF. I would try to sign a good 2B, CF, and corner outfielder. Mathews Jr would be a target. Maybe Soriano for outfield Kent/Durham at 2B. if I got both a corner and a CF, I'd try to move Jones. I think he may have more value that I give him credit for, but the trade would obviously be to clear roster space rather than to add talent anywhere else. I doubt we could significantly upgrade the staff 2B, CF, AND Lf, so it would likely be 3 of the 4. Then I'd bring back Blanco, Theriot, Cedeno, and find a good power corner infield backup bat- preferably lefty. Bynum, Pagan, and Restovich would get looks as the 5th outfielder (assuming Murton is the 4th in a platoon role at worst with Jones). LF Murton OR Soriano/corner bat RF Jones OR Murton (if we add a corner bat) CF Mathews 1B Lee 2B Kent/Durham or Theriot/Cedeno (if we add a corner bat) 3B Ramirez SS Izturis C Barrett This is all done with the, I think realistic, approach that we're saddled with Izturis and Rusch next year.

Ideally, I'd like to see about two new faces on offense next year. The best positions to looks for that will be: SS 2B LF CF RF 1B, 3B, and C should be set. Now, upgrading SS or RF will require a trade of a current player, or benchign a fairly highly paid player which would be a poor use of resources. Upgrading Left Field would be to give up on matt Murton, who I feel has been our 3rd best hitter this season. Still, it's the easy option as there should be 2-3 impact LF bats available and Murton is easily benched or traded to make room. There aren't a ton of CFers out there, but upgrading there would be a simple FA signing if one is available. 2B would be easy as well if viable ptions are out there on the FA wire. But we know the IMPACT type of bats will be hard to find at SS, 2B, and CF. It's an infuriating problem, because I can see what WILL happen is probably not going to be the ideal situation. Instead of trying to find new homes for Izturis or Jones, they'll likely, (given Hendry's track record) stick with Theriot and/or Cedeno at second, re-sign Pierre, and sign a mediocre LF rather than a top-tier bat. EVEN THAT is do-able IF they hit homeruns (pardon the pun) with pitchign upgrades. If I had complete god-like control, but still wanted to work within the realm of some semblence of reason, I would seek a power corner outfield bat for RIGHT field, and upgrade EITHER CF or 2B while trading JONES, not Murton. And i would make the pitching staff my utmost priority. I would ALWAYS make the pitching staff my 31 offseason priority. Even with a mediocre offense, you can find some success with great pitching and try to add bats during the season. Bad pitching = bad win/loss record no matter how you slice it.

I read a long statistical analysis on this a couple years back- I think based on Bill James' research. It said that a best-in-the-leauge defensive inflielder can save his team something like 25-35 baserunners per year over the league average. that equates to around 5-15 runs, I believe, if you consider the league average % of baserunners that reach base and eventually score. (Don't quote me on exact numbers, I'm working from memory). A good hitter, however, can be responsible for something like 30-50+ more runs than the league average shortstop if you simply consider gross stats alone (homers, runs, RBI, etc), and that's not counting the better predictors such as OBP, SLG, OPS+, etc). So it's pretty obvious that defense, while not a worthless trait, pales next to the production of a solid hitter. That's not to say you want a TERRIBLE defender out there- you certainly don't. But it lillustrates that a stellar defensive player with a terrible bat is clearly inferior to an average hitter/average fielder. Ultimately, a very good hitter will create more runs over an average hitter than a very good fielder can possibly SAVE over an average fielder, and by a rather considerable amount. Hence offense > fielding.

Theriot has done what you EXPECT a decent player to do- improve over time. I don't know for sure if he's a great player or is going to be a solid starter for his career or not. But he hasn't done anything yet to make me think otherwise in his limited action. that' s why we get to see him for a few more weeks first. Most of all, I like that he is patient. So whether he hits .270 or .330, he'll be able to help us even when he's in the throes of a hitting slump by taking some pitches here and there- something Cedeno cannot do. I am all for allowing guys like Theriot the right to EARN starting positions in their first full years, but I think it is prudent to have a viable backup option as well. There are very very few teams, even playoff teams, who have offensive studs, or even above average offensive players at all 8 positions. We need one more big bat somewhere in the lineup, and a focus in the remaining positions at getting on base. Then, our biggest issue should be pitching, NOT signing 4 stud hitters. We can add a hitter later in the season if need be, and solid pitching will keep you in the hunt plenty long enough to do so. If I'm Hendry, I count on Zambrano and Hill at this point, PRAY that Prior can do something, but plan for the worst anyway by singing at least two quality starting pitchers. Wood comes back as the backup closer and short reliever with the possibility of moving into the rotation if his shoudler is healed by late in the season and there is a need, and signed to an incentive laden deal. Otherwise, he walks. The rest of the bullpen pretty much remains intact. Then, just make sure our bench isn't filled with the neifis of the world, and we can easily contend.

Not only its this thread titled correctly to help all those who don't like to read about Neifi from accidentally opening a thread about him, but it's still RELEVANT. The conditions and people who made The Neifi Effect so aggravating to all of us with half an ounce of baseball accumen are STILL IN PLACE with this organization. The Cubs have an infuriating knack of treating the symptoms (Neifi's bad play, for example) while failing to address the real underlying problems (managers and GMs who overvalue players like him).

The bottom line is that TYPICALLY, huys in their early-mid 20s develop more power in their late 20s to early 30s. That's the TYPICAL progression. Murton is probably destined to be a line-drive hitter, not a constant flyball hitter, but good line drive hitters with compact, quick swings tend to pop a few as they get better at recognizing pitches and get naturally stronger with age. If we assume that the second half of this year is more indicative of his abilities than the first, he's ALREADY a 15-homer type of guy or better. So it's not unrealistic to think he would be a 20-25 type of guy with a little more experience and even only modest improvement at making solid contact. As it stands, I don't think it coincidence that when he stopped dropping his right shoulder near the end of the first half, he stopped topping so many choppers to the left side and started hitting the line drives. He might, like gracie (though he's built much stockier than Grace), never develop more power. It's entirely possible. And if an .830 OPS is what we can get for him, I'm not going to * about that in the least. he's ALREADY, imo, a good #2 or #3 hitter.

I think Hendry needs to sign a starting pitcher (Schmidt) and make a trade for an impact bat for the Cubs to be in contention next year. With Hill, Marshall, Mateo, Guzman, and Marmol all showing some major league potential, the Cubs have what a lot of teams want (young pitching). Put a couple of those pitchers together with Cedeno and you might get someone like Tejada if Angelos finally wakes up to the status of his team. I dream about the Cubs putting together a good enough package to get Cabrera, but that probably won't happen. I am assuming that Prior can come back and be a decent #3 starter. Finally, let's not forget that the Cubs are in the NL Central where contending might mean winning 88 games. I think it takes more than an arm and a bat to take us from 25 under to contending. I don't think people realize how bad this roster is top-to-bottom with only about 4-6 bright spots. Of our entire roster, there are only really a few position players who aren't drags on our ability to score, and most have some large caveats next to their names: Lee (returning from injury, and it's possible he'll never be the 2005 Lee again even if healthy, because that's hard to do). Ramirez (won't do squat the first month of any season) Barret- good offensive catcher, no real issues there. Everyone else is easily replaceable/forgetable at the moment, or just not good. On the pitching staff, you have Zambrano and Eyre who are the only real definite solid pitchers we can count on. howry isn't a major problem either. everyone else is questionable at best. I'm sorry, but no team with only 5-6 guys you can expect to be solidly above average is goign ot cotnend by adding a pitcher and a big bat, I don't care how weak the division or league is, because our competition isn't exactly going to be standing pat this offseason either. This roster is fundamentally flawed on a pretty serious level, and the fact that we've (Hendry) created this mess in a two-year stretch of weak-at-best overall free agent crops is devastating. I don't know that there are going to be enough good free agents to build a real contender even if we got everyone we wanted and didn't have to worry about moving the dregs of our own roster in the process. Jim Hendry has dug a deep and daunting hole for this team. This roster should have been blown up over a month ago to collect trading chips and free up roster spots. Instead, we added commitments in guys like Izturis, and added few, if any, actual prospects. So now, we're forced to spend money on a thin FA class, or trade some of the very few blue-chip prospects we haven't already fettered away on stiffs like Pierre.

For a good GM? DH.

I definitely agree with that. Because of the two infield situations we used most often (Walker at second/Mabry at first, or Neifi at second/Walker at first) Lee's at bats would essentially come at the expense of Neifi/Mabry. If replacing one of the worst hitters in the game with one of the best hitters in the game only results in 2-3 extra wins, then how is a bad team ever going to become good? That's Lee's point. It's not just that he was out, it's that the rest of the guys sucked living butt while he was out. Even with him in the game, if the team around him continued to suck living butt, we still lose. A lot.

The 20 homers is the one I would most question. I think he has the ability to be a batting-title type of hitter, but I think he looks more like a 10-15 homer type of guy with more doubles.

Once again, Dusty has shown that he simply doesn't understand what OBP really is. he seems to think that SLG and OBP are mutually exclusive- that you can't get a guy with a good OBP who can hit the ball hard. he's just totally clueless. All guys with high OBP are not slow fat guys who walk a lot. Some are atheltic, powerful hitters who hit the snot out of the ball. Some are hard nosed doubles-tiples kidna guys. Some are dumpy little singles hitters. The point is not that we want or need one or the other, it's that we've totally ignored that part of a player's game for many years. Oh, he hit 30 homers last year? let's sign him to a 2 year deal. He stole 50 bases? Go get him! Our leadership has totally missed the point that hitting 30 homers doesn't help your team if you make an out 70% of the time you come to the plate. THAT'S why we cean't get good "Situational" hitting...because we frankly can't get just "good hitting." We make too many outs. Our leadership ignores the fact that a guy's 50 stolen bases occurred on 50 of the whole 110 tiems he reached base, showing that he limited the number of times there WERE men on base. So the problem isn't devaluing obp, and it's not being stubborn. They just don't understand what people mean when they talk OBP or statstics to them. When a reporter asks about OBP, they THINK they know what they mean, but the truth is, hendry and Baker simply are on a different page with the very basic concept of NOT MAKING OUTS. They don't understand that no one is telling them to go get a fat, weak, slow guy who walks a lot. They dont' understand that no one is saying they need 8 leadoff singels hitters with high OBP and no power in the lineup. When Bruce or another writer asks about OBP, the reason he gets such baffling answers isn't because Baker and Hendry devalue it intentionally, it's because they just don't know what the reporters are talking about, and most alarmingly from my perspective is that they don't seem to even have a clue that they're ignorant about what they're commenting on. At nearly $100 million, there's simply no excuse NOT to have 3-5 studly type of hitters in the order who can BOTH hit it hard as hell and take a walk when the pitcher gives it to them. Those players exist- Hendry and baker just don't recognise them as more valuable than a guy with a touch MORE power but less ability to lay off bad pitches. Hence Jacques Jones for 3 years in right field. :roll:

Does ti seem to anyone else that Murton has actually tweaked his swing a bit? The first half, he seemed to be taking a huge upper-cut swing where he was almost coming out of his shoes. that caused him to come over the top o hte ball and hit those weak choopers too often. When I watch him now, he keeps his back shoulder up, and takes a level, smoother cut. It looks like he's swinging easier, but the level controlled swing allows him to elevate the ball a bit more and make better contact. I think that's leading to his resurgence.

I....he....but....he can't really..... AAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! (wastra'a head exploded afte reading the article this morning)

I know the post was tongue in cheek, but it may not be far off: http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-060823cubsgamer,1,4471621.story?coll=cs-cubs-headlines And then I actually might vomit.

The Ginger kid is starting to find his power stroke!!!!

I think you mean Lenny Neifcias If we didn't have Macias and Neifi on the same team for one year, on the field TOGETHER for several games, I'd have sworn all three guys were actually the same player under different aliases. Short, round, unshaven, with weird swings, totally worthless at the plate... something's fishy here. Who do we think Hendry will find to fill the Lenny Neifcias role next year? Bynum doesn't LOOK the part, but his stat sheet sure does.

How is the Big East a BCS conference? There are two decent teams and a load of utter manure. Both the decent teams are heartily overrated.

That's not a compliment of Jones. We expected him to completely and utterly suck, and he's just completely sucked a tad less than we expected. Wonderful. :roll: :wink:

Buster Olney and others have said that CLee will sign with the Rangers. I wouldn't put all our eggs in that basket this offseason (I also wouldn't bank on a .900 OPS - his numbers have dipped quite a bit: .830 in July, .835 in August). I'd go after Soriano for 2B, leave Murton in LF and try to find a different platoon partner for Jones. If JP does sign w/ us, I'd want Murton's .360 OBP in the 2 spot. If his SLG doesn't improve next year, it's not a big deal at that spot. Soriano isn't my favorite option, but he's a guy Hendry would go after and he'll probably sign anywhere that pays him a lot - esp if he can go back to 2B (given the fuss he made about playing LF in TX). I think that would be a good plan overall. I know Hendry won't want Soriano's defensie up the middle, but his bat will HAVE to outweigh that glove. Heck, he can even play a little LF when we're facing lefties, with Theriot at 2B and Murton in RF and Jones (mercifully) sitting. I honestly don't see us getting CLee. I have no particular knowledge of anything, just a hunch. Pierre Murton Lee Ramirez Soriano Barret Jones Izturis Pitcher (unless Z is pitching, then we bat him 8th and move Izturis down ;) )

Murton's already showing improved power since his June slump. He's a very good hitter, but I don't think he's going to top 15-20 homers often in his career. I don't really care about 20+ homers as long as he gets on base, hits plenty of gappers (doubles), etc. I think he can do that. I was having some doubts earlier this year, I admit, but he's workign through it. Everyone always says the second stint through the league is the toughest. I think/hope he's weathered that storm and can continue to hit like has has recently.

Agreed. We like to talk about hitters because it's a problem with a more obvious solution. The pitching staff is a total mess. We know we'll plan on Zambrano and Prior, but who else? Should Hendry plan on keeping two of this year's rookies in the rotation or just one? We know we need 2-3 guys ready at AAA to come up and pitch for times when Prior inevitably gets hurt. So who's in the roation and who's out? IMO, Hill, Mateo, Marmol, and Marshall are battling for one roation spot from here on out. If two are lights-out, and it all clicks, maybe two will make the rotation. Ultimately, we need to sign one top flight SP or one plus a good SP. My preference if for two starters- one a big time addition ala Zito, another a solid 3 or 4 type guy. The young guys can pitch in AAA or take the long relief/spot starter role. Then add a Carlos Lee type guy in left, and replace our bench guys who will no doubt move on. Wood returns at a huge discount, still incentive-laden, to the pen. We're talking 2 highly paid additions (LF and SP) and another back-end SP who won't come overly cheap, but won't break the bank. That's imminently doable. then, you just have to look out for additions of opportunity (trades, or FA signings that fall into our lap ala Todd Walker) at any position that works...CF, 2B, etc.

I agree with all your other points, but how has Jones been a big disappointment? He has done pretty well for a right fielder in this league-he's an average right fielder making average money for a right fielder. The frustrating part is not getting a platoon partner with him, because his numbers against right handers are just great this year. Jones makes more outs per plate appearance than any qualified right fielder in baseball with the exception of Jeff Francoeur. I would gladly trade his .481 slugging for an OBP that at least appears like he has a pulse.

I woul rather keep Barret at catcher and Ramirez at 3rd, and then spend money the way a big-market team should (wisely) to get a some top-notch help at second and left. there's no reason the Cubs should be trying all kinds of exerimental moves to boost offense when they have the financial ability to go out and get top-notch players instead, and KEEP the above average players they already have. Of course, this requires our GM to suddenly get a clue...so I expect to see Ramirez gone and Barret at 3rd next year anyway with two underperforming, overpaid, but athletic old guys playing at LF and 2B with a defensive-minded, no-stick catcher while murton and Cedeno either sit the bench or get traded for the afore-mentioned overpaid veterans. :wink:

I don't think they are necessarily 'critical' to a teams success either, but something has to be said for the non-measurable attributes speed creates like annoying the crap out of the opposing pitcher and him throwing a fastball that catches too much of the plate. Also, what can be said about players like '03 Lofton, '05 Damon/D. Roberts and '05 Podsednik directly leading to a teams playoff success? No one is saying speed doesn't matter. given the choice, you ALWAYS want a guy who can hit a ton AND run well over the guy who can hit a ton and not run well. But according to statistics, it has been shown that stolen bases have no correllation with a team's offensive production over the course of a year. The teams with high SB totals do NOT tend to be the highest scoring teams. I believe Bill James showed that a TEAM has to be successful in something like 80-85% of its steal attempts before it even becomes run-positive over teh course of a year. So whether a guy steals bases or not can be useful in an isolated instance, but over the course of 162 games, it's not going to impact yoru team ina greatly meaningful way. Ultimately, James has shown that stastically, OBP is the far and away most important stat, with slugging second. Why? The bottom line is that no matter HOW you get on base, the team that can send more people to the plate in a given inning before making 3 outs tends to score more runs. (another reason why, over the long haul, Baker's infatuation with the sacrifice bunt is hurting our run-scoring ability. giving up outs is a bad idea.) Pierre's problem is that his BP is not the result of patience, it's of getting "lucky" with his weakly hit bloops and grounders finding holes. When he's "on," it's fine. But like all guys who swing away and rarely take pitches, it means he's prone to slumps. If Adam Dunn (let's even ignore the power right now) slumps and hits .210 for a month, he's likely still helping his team because he's still taking walks and getting on base at a .350 clip, creating scoring opportunities each time he does. If Pierre slumps to .210, he's only getting on base at a .230 clip, so he's actually hurting the team through his plate approach in that situation. hence, he needs to hit .325+ to be helping the team. So first things first, the Cubs need patient, high OBP guys at the top of the order. Given a choice between otherwise equal players, obviously take the guy with speed.

3/$15m right fielder 3 good prospects + $5.75m + potentially many more millions of dollars $2.8m Do you seriously need this explained to you? I don't think he ever asked for you to explain anything to him. Patterson's lack of plate discipline and situational hitting cancels out his OPS in my opinion. Stolen bases from the 6-slot in the order aren't critical to a team's offensive production either. Jones, however, has just as bad discipline and situational hitting and also plays a very easily replaceable corner outfield position. I think Pierre would be better suited as a 2-hole hitter due to his ability to make contact and lay down the bunt. As far as the 2007 leadoff and 2-hole hitter for the Cubs, I have no idea. Stolen bases are not critical to a team's success no matter where they are in the order. Historically, Stolen bases=virtually no correlation to a team's record. Pierre isn't a good leadoff or #2 hitter unless he can hit .325 because he can't get on base otherwise.