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wastra

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Everything posted by wastra

  1. wastra
    Don't forget about Cotts in competition for that 5th spot also. I really don't think Marquis is a positive addition exept in that he is fairly durable- which I do not discount, to be honest, given how 2006 went. I think our team is an 80-85 win ballclub UNLESS a couple breaks go our way...mainly the offense stays healthy and Soriano of 2006 is the real Soriano. Perhaps more importantly, a healthy and effective Mark Prior and/or Wade Miller potentially takes the rotation from middle-of-the-pack to one of the NL's best. But we're still not locks to win a lot of games. The two offensive players we added played well above their career norms last year, so there is a significant chance they regress, and we're just an average offensive team. If the pitching can't stay healthy and we have to rely on Marquis all year, we have an average (at-best) rotation. again. There's reason for optimism AND pessimism with this offseason. We've spent a ton of money, but some of the dollars spent are highly questionable (Marquis)
  2. wastra
    Wood has changed his approach multiple times. It's simply not always possible to change the way youv'e done something every day since you were old enough to hold a baseball. He stopped throwing the "slurve" that was so devastating to hitters after his first surgery because it puts so much lateral pressure on the forearm and elbow and went with a traditional curve and slider. He tried to establish a consistant release point the following year to improve consistancy as well. He got better at it, just never perfected it. So let's not act like he's "stubbornly" refused to change. The slider is in itself responsible for a lot of injuries today. it's a relatively new pitch in the grand scheme of baseball, and the fact that it's thrown almost as hard as a fastball but still torques the arm like a curve has to have a LOT to do with so many pitching injuries.
  3. wastra
    Since we play in the NL and we don't use the designated hitter, I'd say no. He can't play the outfield anymore.
  4. wastra
    Yeah- he probably projects to be the same type of player Soriano projected to be early in his career. I think Soriano's power has far exceeded most expectations. neither will ever be a .400 OBP guy, and their success will be tied largely to BABIP since neither is patient at all. Both are freakish athletes with good arms. Pie is already a better defender, though maybe Soriano would have been better had he played outfield his whole career, too. Pie is the Jim hendry wet-dream- a tools-lovers ideal, but very raw when signed, and progressing as rapidly as possible (that's not a knock on Pie). I don't think Pie is projected to be a 30-40 homer guy, but he's got a very athletic body and he was so young and skinny when he started out that there's simply no telling. He could wind up with Kenny Lofton-esque power, or he could probably easily balloon into a 20-30 guy. he's only now starting to add some muscle to his frame, and he's go a long way to go on that still, but he's developed some power in the minors faster than many expected.
  5. wastra
    I don't mind having a 25th man on the roster so long as I have confidence that Sweet Lou will USE him as a 25th man and not a platoon partner.
  6. wastra
    It was around page 40 (premium), but I said it back there and I'll say it again: There are positives and negatives to Soriano, but we are a better offensive team right now than at any point in the last 2 seasons. If the payroll stays near the luxury tax threshold, his contract won't be as onerous as it would be with a $100m payroll. He's not going to be an on-base guy, but SLG% was a need and he will provide slugging. Good sign at an inflated price is how I'm looking at it. There's still money and, more importantly, tradable assets with which to further improve the team. I agree. He should be a GOOD player either way, but the worst scenario for the near future is that he's an overpaid good player- which is far better than overpaying for a bad player, as has been our style of late. He may not be a GREAT player, but he should be a nice improvement over what we have. I'd rather pay $17m+ per year to Soriano than I would $3-4mm a year to a Neifi.
  7. wastra
    I don't think the Soriano signing should eb greeted by as much pessimism as it has. If we get the 2006 version, we get a pretty studly hitter. Those guys cost a lot. If we get soething a little less, we still get a good player, albeit one who is overpaid. Any real "problems" resulting form his contract won't really be felt until 2012 or so. While I think it's certainly legit to look that far out and be a tad disappointed, it's honestly too far out for us as fans to get worked up about. The only way this should be greeted so negatively is if hendry DOESN'T add some qulaity starters to the mix now because of it.
  8. wastra
    One of the writers in Chicago said the other day that Eyre has a limited no-trade clause in his contract, and that there was little chance that he would be traded. I think Ohman is the bullpen lefty most likely to be dealt.
  9. wastra
    Reasoning? I'd like this line-up: Soriano RF Murton LF Griffey CF Lee 1b Ramirez 3b Barrett C Derosa 2b Izturis SS I wouldn't mind that lineup one bit. If/when Griffey goes down you can call up Pie or let Pagan try to hold down the fort depending on the severity. On the other hand...is Griffey that big of an upgrade over Jones at this point? I'm not sure how he is considered an upgrade in any way. Player TEAM POS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG 10. K Griffey CIN OF 109 428 62 108 19 0 27 72 208 39 78 0 0 .316 .486 .252 11. J Jones CHC OF 149 533 73 152 31 1 27 81 266 35 116 9 1 .334 .499 .285
  10. wastra
    A buddy of mine from Cleveland said the talk up there is of a trade for Westbrook involving Marshall, either Wuertz or Ohman, and either Cedeno or Izturis. I guess that could explain the Cubs' reported interest in Lugo.
  11. wastra
    I just think BABIP can't be looked at in a vaccuum. If a player shows sudden improvement or regression, you can check to see if there has been a dramatice change in BABIP WITHOUT A corresponding increase in OBP relative to AVG (the differential...i.e. he's not being more patient) along with slugging (just hitting it harder this year). It's important because it really takes very little for a guy to go rom .275 to .290 in batting average- it only takes a couple of lucky hits every other week or so to really change numbers, but doesn't really prove that a guy is seeing the ball better or making better contact. It's just another tool in a long line of statistical analyses that can help evaluate players.
  12. wastra
    The problem is that he's gambling with a contract AGAIN that locks us into a player for 3 years for far too much money. By any stretch, DerRosa is a gamble, and on that seems taylor made for a typical Jim Hendry move. The guy had ONE good season and won the lottery. If he truly has turned the corner, Hendry looksl ike a genius, if not, he looks like his typical clueless self. The man doesn't know how to stay away from "ifs" with his money.
  13. wastra
    DeRosa is better than the average hendry wet-dream player. I mean, he's only had one or two years with an OBP under .300. His .325-ish career OBP fits in nicely with our roster. ](*,)
  14. wastra
    annnnnnnnnd like clockwork, Hendry whiffs horribly and inks a backup to a 3 year, $13million deal. ](*,)
  15. wastra
    My hope is that Theriot is the other middle infielder, and Derosa is just insurance. But 3 year/$13m contract for a backup quality 2b?!? Here we go again. :roll: Can we fire Hendry now...PLEASE?
  16. wastra
    I've seen this written more than once and I have to disagree. I think the current core make-up of the team is a .500 team, though not much better. The current team is not much different than last year's true, but it also isn't much different than core 2005 team, which essentially was a .500 team. The problem with this thinking is, whatever you think they essentially were, or are, in reality, they were below .500. You can't just hand them .500 because we expect the bad breaks to even out. You can't plan a team assuming things will be fine. Guys are going to get hurt and/or underperform, and the only way to win when guys get hurt and/or underperform is to put together a team that is good enough to withstand setbacks. It's not good to have a team that can be essentially .500. Hendry has to put a team on the field that is capable of 95-100 wins. Capable, not guaranteed. With setbacks you might have to settle for 90 wins. And that might not be enough to make the playoffs. But it's real improvement. Essentially .500 is essentially not trying. This is a great post. Planning for the best and getting it is an easy GM job, especially with a payroll like the Cubs'- it's all dumb luck, for the most part. It's planning for the worst that is difficult for ANY franchise, and we've essentially failed 2-3 years in a row of planning for anything BUT the best. For the past couple of seasons, we've basically needed EVERYONE to be in tip-top shape for us to compete. Obviously, that only happens once in a blue moon ('03?) any time you are counting on that from 25-30 different players. hendry could have looked like a genius IF Sammy had never...err...aged...Alou had not fallen off in the cold and day games, Pierre had returned to '02 form, Wood and Prior had suddenly remembered how to stay healthy, etc. To use a poker reference: Hendry is like that guy who calls a lot of big bets with only a draw in his hand. he looks likE a genius the one time out of ten when he hits the flush on the river, but he looks like a moran the bulk of the time because the percentages are against him.
  17. wastra
    I said before last season started that the roster last year was one that should ahve been within 5 games on either side of .500. A really healthy combo of wood/prior would have been good for a couple more if all else had gone right. But I and many other people pointed out taht we had so many "ifs" that ranged from health of players (prior/wood) to use of players (neifi). I think we hit a "perfect storm" of bad things happening to lose as many as we did, but we're STILL not as good coming into this season NOW as we thought we'd be at this point last year. Last year, not many people expected the ENTIRE season to be a loss of Wood AND Prior. Most thought Miller would be back by the break. MOST thought Dempster would be better than he was. So for this offseason, hendry has not made the obvious mistake of letting Ramirez walk, nor the less obvious mistake of not seeing if Wood can recover at a low cost to the team. His grade as a GM is how he IMPROVES the team, not how he retains the few pieces he should. That doesn't take experience or ability, just a modicum of common sense. Ih ave to admit that I don't like the idea that Soriano is the #1 overall target. It's not that I don't want him, it's that I think by FAR the biggest weakness on this team is pitching, and I'd have preferred to see the hype surrounding 2 pitchers. I freely admit that it doesn't PRECLUDE hendry from targettign and getting 2 goos starters, so this is more of a cautiously conditionally negative approach from me based upon my disappointments every OTHER offseason hendry's gone to work for us.
  18. wastra
    nice. They went to classic colors instead of the "trendy" colors that become dated quickly. I like them. Agree about the snake's head logo- they should use it more.
  19. wastra
    He'll be the Darren Baker of this team (that's the name of Dusty's kid, right?)
  20. wastra
    The Gold Glove HAS to be the most meaningless award in professional sports. I think I actually have a gold glove or two in the hall closet.
  21. wastra
    I think the problem with Willis is that he's a good pitcher who will cost as much as a great pitcher to get and keep. Obviously if you can get him cheap, you're VERY happy to have him. But while some 'lesser' pitchers may not have the name recognition, you can likely get the same level of performance elsewhere for a lot less. And we may be getting it from a certain Mr. Hill before long (if you want to stick to lefties). Overpaying for players is so typical fo this franchise that I almost expect Hendry to announce he's already made the pie and murton for Willis deal. :wink:
  22. wastra
    Bonds is not the same player who took those giants to the postseason 4 times between 1997 and 2003.
  23. wastra
    The thought of Bonds breaking Aaron's record in a Cub uniform is appalling to me. That epic travesty of baseball justice needs no place in chicago's north side. The last thing Chicago needs in a quest for the World Series is the distractions that follow Barry Bonds wherever he goes.
  24. wastra
    The point is that there WAS Some value to keeping maddux- both as a ticket seller and a mentor to the 8,322 rookie pitchers we were carrying. We came out of that trade looking like the ones desperate to get Izturis, not the other way around. Why make that trade at all if it doesn't help the team? that's the whole point. Swapping MAddux for Izturis was not a positive for the Cubs- it limits our flexibility and payroll next year (when we already knew we were playing for next year at the soonest). Keeping Maddux would not have done that. So unless Maddux was "demanding" a trade, it was a stupid, pointless move. We did not gain payroll flexibility. We did not gain a great deal of talent, if any. We did not shore up our lineup. We did not add a missing piece of the puzzle. We did not add long term roster flexibility. And most importantly, we're probably paying more to Izturis this year than we saved by not having Maddux on the payroll for 6 weeks.
  25. wastra
    Let's just hope St. Louis loses the series. If they win, Hendry will try to build a team full of mediocre pitching and one good hitter who just have a history of "peaking at the right time." :P
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