Mephistopheles

so much for the defense playing well. my god

OK, how did you come up with your list? And if you didn't, who did? BTW, Ole Piss about to punt. His list was based off numerical data from Sagarin's predictor, or at least a reasonable facsimile thereof. I can only imagine what USC's odds to go undefeated would have calculated as prior to last night. 0%. Prior to the night before last night: 70.59%.

No one is saying it's perfect. Besides Florida's got a less chance than Penn State once you factor in the SEC Title game - assuming the offense gets their act together. Defense has played great all season - including today. Ole Miss isn't that bad this year. They're not very good, but they aren't terrible. They only lost to #15 Wake Forest by 2 points. Their other loss was a by 6 points to #21 Vanderbilt. They won't have a great record at the end of the season, but there is a very good chance that they knock off one of Florida, Alabama, Auburn or LSU this year.

I didn't say I thought they were the most likely team to go undefeated.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt08.htm

the data used to derive the numbers. it's not like i said, hmm florida 35 percent because i want to

There is no fudging with the data. You get what you get.

One thing to note is that this would lineup Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano to get two starts apiece if the NLCS if we make it there. All terribleness of late aside, Zambrano's expected ERA is going to be higher than Dempsters and Hardens, but to be fair he makes a lot of it up with his bat. In a perfect world, it's lined up for Zambrano to go 1 start in the NLDS, 2 starts in the NLCS, 1 start in the WS with that start coming in Wrigley, where he can bat.

Take them for what they're worth: 83.1% #14 Ohio State over Minnesota 67.9% Miami-Florida over North Carolina 74.8% #20 Clemson over Maryland 97.2% #4 Florida over Ole Miss 66.3% #9 Wisconsin over Michigan 95.5% #7 Texas over Arkansas 84.7% West Virginia over Marshall 68.7% #25 Fresno State over UCLA 73.4% #23 East Carolina over Houston 77.3% #15 Auburn over Tennessee 93.3% #16 Wake Forest over Navy 75.2% #2 Oklahoma over #24 TCU 70.6% #13 South Florida over NC State 97.3% #5 LSU over Mississippi State 57.4% #3 Georgia over #7 Alabama 95.4% #12 Penn State over #22 Illinois 98.5% #17 Utah over Weber State Upset Alert Game of the Week And probability of ending regular season undefeated (not including conference championship games) 35.81% Florida Gators 20.56% Penn State Nittany Lions 12.87% Oklahoma Sooners 7.12% Texas Longhorns 6.63% Alabama Crimson Tide 5.32% LSU Tigers 1.71% South Florida Bulls 1.55% Wisconsin Badgers 1.31% Georgia Bulldogs 0.71% Missouri Tigers 0.54% Texas Tech Red Raiders

cal league has 10 teams. mwl has 14.

Boras is well represented next year - though it's early to know who will be advising who among prep prospects. IIRC Boras represents Andy Oliver, Robert Stock and Alex White are being advised by Boras. Mike Minor I am not sure of.

If they go into the draft then their services won't go through a bidding process. In other words, it'll keep their potential earnings from jumping straight to the US down. There would be less financial incentives for them to come over before playing in Japan. Does it completely block the stream? No, but it keeps from too many coming over. Only the uber elite prospects who would be top five round material would come over. Honestly, that's one or two players a year. NPB draft has a cap of like 150k. 150k slot is 5th to 6th round. Couple this with an agreement by NPB to raise the maximum signing bonus to between 200k and 250k, then we're looking only at top three round material.

Hey, I like Greinke as much as the next guy, but the Royals have said over and over and over and over and over that hes untouchable. With their fans, interest, suckage and market, do you think they are going to come out and publically say "Yes, Zack Greinke can be had."

Peavy won't be dealt. Giles will be 38 next season. Greinke's blossoming into a stud. Great multiple pitch mix. Great pitchability. Good command. Even though he's been around forever, still just 24.

why in the world would matt kemp be available. my god i hate the yankees

ba doesnt know what to make of jay jackson

heh.

We're getting a prospect in the deal to flip for a good starting pitcher.

Sure. We're talking about expected values. The probability of Dempster having another season like this is a lot lower than Burnett's. If you want to look at it that way, it's quite possible that Jason Marquis could have a season as good as Dempster's this year. Oh wait he already has. Demp's VORP is around 55, Marquis had one around 50 in St Louis. We can say Dempsters upside is higher than Marquis

Come on BA, Holland's gotta be ahead of Ben Revere. Ben Revere is not that good of a prospect. I'm sorry. Here's to hoping he isn't the next Joey Gathright. Ben Revere's a name that's so American he had better make it in baseball. Derek Holland's so dutch.

Better than overpaying for a pitcher who will throw about the same amount of innings this year as he did the previous four seasons combined. Not to mention the guy with a better track record, both physically and statistically as well as better pure stuff. Honestly, with Zambrano and Harden we'd probably need a dependable pitcher who won't go down for spurts. Burnett's not that guy. Dempster's not that guy. Still, Marquis and Marshall are probably that guy. We can have a rotation of Harden, Zambrano, Burnett, Lilly and Marquis for most of the season. When Zambrano, Harden and Burnett have their month breaks we have Marshall to insert in the rotation. Marshall's honestly a better pitcher than Marquis so we're really not at a disadvantage throwing him out there for 15-20 starts. Personally with the vacant spot in the rotation I say get a big upside guy, even with the risk, or get a no risk whatsoever dependable guy. I don't think we should give to a limited upside, high risk, high cost guy (read: Ryan Dempster). Given the state of the division, the Brewers will suck. The Cardinals probably won't win 80 games. Unless there is a major signing (read Dunn to Houston) it's not a very likely scenario that any team outside of us in the division will be above .500. Even if Burnett misses three months of the season and we throw in Marshall for them, we still will win the division. We'd have a playoff rotation with Zambrano, Harden and Burnett at the front which would rival any top three in history. I'll take my chances and go for the home run. A few other starters I would be interested in depending on the price: Oliver Perez, CC Sabathia, and Mark Prior (!). I Sure has heck hope Wood comes back. I just can't even imagine Wood in another uniform. Rocco Baldelli could be available. Why not? Incentive laden deal, high upside. So why not. My overall possible hope list: 1. Sign Rafael Furcal (if health reports are good) 2. If possible, trade for Zack Greinke, if not sign one of {AJ Burnett, Oliver Perez, CC Sabathia, Randy Wolf} 3. Sign Rocco Baldelli 4. Sign Damaso Marte (if bought out) then Jeremy Affeldt 5. Resign Jim Edmonds I think those five are reasonably possible. If Greinke is available at all, whatever it takes to get him. I don't care if it's Samardzija + Vitters. I'd do that in a minute. We might be able to sell high with Ryan Theriot in a trade to the Royals.... 1. Rafael Furcal 2. Mark DeRosa 3. Derrek Lee 4. Aramis Ramirez 5. Alfonso Soriano 6. Kosuke Fukudome/Reed Johnson/Jim Edmonds 7. Geovany Soto 8. Rocco Baldelli/Jim Edmonds/Reed Johnson 1. Carlos Zambrano 2. Rich Harden 3. AJ Burnett/Zack Greinke/CC Sabathia/Randy Wolf/Oliver Perez/Sean Marshall 4. Ted Lilly 5. Jason Marquis In all seriousness, what I would want to do: 1a. Sign Adam Dunn 1b. Resign Kerry Wood 2. Trade Mark DeRosa for Hong-Chih Kuo and Ivan DeJesus/Blake Dewitt (if 5 doesn't work, then Andrew Lambo) 3. Trade Ryan Theriot and Felix Pie for Khalil Greene and Cedric Hunter (before 5, I'll keep Hunter) 4. Sign Rocco Baldelli 5. Trade The Farm + Ivan DeJesus/Blake Dewitt + Cedric Hunter for Zack Greinke 6. Resign Hank White 7. Sign one of 1,000,000 utility infielders 1. Alfonso Soriano, LF 2. Mike Fontenot, 2B (Ronny Cedeno vs lefties) 3. Derrek Lee, 1B 4. Adam Dunn, RF (Reed Johnson vs lefties) 5. Aramis Ramirez, 3B 6. Geovany Soto, C 7. Kosuke Fukudome/Rocco Baldelli, CF 8. Khalil Greene, SS Bench: 1. Micah Hoffpauir, 1B 2. Ronny Cedeno, INF 3. Rocco Baldelli, OF 4. Reed Johnson, OF 5. Generic Utility Infielder 6. Hank White, C Rotation: 1. Carlos Zambrano 2. Rich Harden 3. Zack Greinke 4. Ted Lilly 5. Jason Marquis....Rich Hill!? Bullpen 1. Sean Marshall, LHP 2. Hong-Chih Kuo, LHP 3. Angel Guzman, RHP 4. Jeff Samardzija, RHP 5. Carlos Marmol, RHP 6. Kerry Wood, RHP With Guzman, Kuo and Marshall we have three guys who are pot'l #4's at worst when healthy. Basically a rundown of what I'm doing is: Selling high on Theriot and DeRosa. Looking for pot'l buy low candidates. While doing that decomposing Theriot and DeRosa's "value" into parts that can be summed up to acquire Zack Greinke, the centerpiece of the offseason, if you ask me. I'd consider him more important than Dunn or Burrell or any slugger we may be linked with. I'd be content with Fukudome in RF, and Rocco/Edmonds if resigned/Reed Johnson in CF if changing that meant no Greinke. If you look at the potential contract situation, obviously there's a big increase for Adam Dunn, and probably one for Kerry Wood as well, but the rest of it isn't all that much. And if Rich Hill is back. Well hot damn. Jason Marquis don't let the door hit you on the way out. I don't advise selling on Hill. All in all the team has very good depth in case Zambrano or Harden go down. Kuo's not dependable in the rotation for long, but for a couple starts he'll be great. Lilly has been durable as a Cub, but that was never his strong suit before. We'll have four ML quality SPs (assuming Hills alright), that can be inserted in the rotation if one goes down. One thing that is hurt, though, is the depth of our bench. DeRosa's loss hurts a bit, but selling high is important. So I guess I should reorder by importance: 1. Trade Ryan Theriot + Felix Pie for Khalil Greene + Best possible prospect 2. Trade Mark DeRosa and Prospects to Kansas City for Zack Greinke, who then flips DeRosa for prospects from the Dodgers. If Kuo is possible on top of this, we get Kuo. Kuo is NOT a deal breaker, but is something that should be workable. 3. Resign Kerry Wood 4. Sign Rocco Baldelli 5. Look at potential corner outfielders: {Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, if we can afford one, get one, if not fine} 6. Resign Hank White 7. Sign Generic Utility Infielder And if Khalil Greene's decline is legitimate, we're not screwed because we have Ronny Cedeno who can, at the least, post numbers equal to Theriot with better defense. So 1+2 combine to be: Prospects, Ryan Theriot, Felix Pie, and Mark DeRosa for Khalil Greene, Zack Greinke and possibly Kuo.

Get AJ Burnett.

Regarding the signing of Japanese players. If Tazawa isn't signed by the NPB draft (some time in November, don't know the exact date), then Tazawa can sign with a MLB team. He is free to sign with a MLB team before then. Technically he could sign with a MLB team after the draft, but there's an unwritten agreement not to. I'd be akin to drafting someone with the first overall pick and then seeing a NPB sign him. An unwritten rule, that the Mets, Yankees and Red Sox probably won't give a damn about. Honestly, he's come out and said he's coming here. NPB teams know not to worry about him then. He's not going to be the first player to go this route, he's going to be the first potential first round pick to do so. Kazuhito Tadano came here because no one drafted him because of the "video" he shot. He would have been a high pick in Japan. This also isn't the first time that a high profile Japanese amateur prospect was linked to major league teams before the draft. Last year Sho Nakata was linked to MLB teams as was Yoshinori Satoh, the top two high school prospects, Nakata being arguably the best Japanese high school prospect ever. Neither Nakata or Sato ever came out and said they weren't interested in NPB like Tazawa. Either way I think if even Tazawa wasn't interested the ball was going to be dropped when Yuki Saito graduates in a couple years. He would have been the top pick in the HS draft, but head his eyes set on Waseda instead of NPB. There were some rumblings that he was also positioning himself to go the US after 4 years of development instead of 9 as the main reason. The problem is Japanese teams can't spend like we can. My solution. Let MLB allow this, but require any Japanese players who want to come over here go through a clearing house or something and wait until the June draft. Make them go in the draft. This will make sure overbidding doesn't happen. The Japanese school year runs like the actual year (ending at the end of the year, not in the summer) so there's disincentive to go into the MLB draft there as well.

Bradley will be turning 31 net season. While he's a tremendous player, he comes with a lot of baggage. His outfield range is going to diminish to the point where he will no longer be able to play centerfield at a decent level (though he won't be as bad as Edmonds). He has enough arm strength to play right, but how long will the bat be there? He's going to command a pretty large contract, and I don't think we are in a position to shell out another large contract to a third corner outfielder. In the coming market, I'd rather see us set our eyes on getting another pitcher while letting Dempster go.

sure we've taken a few high risk guys, but those are late. the majority of our early picks have been proven college players with not so high upside. almost every system has more guys with high upsides than ours.