Mephistopheles

Which!?

True talent is a players intrinsic skill level. Players don't always produce at this level, but are expected to produce seasons with a normal distributions centered around this level. Example. If a player's true level is a 800 OPS and there's a 30 pt standard deviation for the normal player in a given season. Then we would expect his OPS to be above 830 about 16 percent of the time. We would expect his OPS to be below 770 about 16 percent of the time.

lol yoast oops

apparently he's thinking of this lineup 1 rickie weeks 2 ryan braun 3 prince fielder 4 corey hart 5 jj hardy 6 mike cameron 7 bill hall 8 pitcher 9 jason kendall

what is it with everyone advertising their blog now?

It took you a month to enter stuff in a spreadsheet? Come on. You're drawing for straws right here. You're making it seem as if BP's rankings are an institution. They've been written by different people over the years. Jazayerli did some, Sheehan did some, and now Goldstein is doing some. You can't even put in the correct data... your 2001 lists are from 2000. Anyways big deal for a couple years BP's were outdone by BA's. Big deal. You're still wrong. There's still no way to conclude that BP's lists have "always been bloody awful" as you put it. I even admitted that the stuff I showed wasn't sufficient enough to conclude that BA's was better than BP's. It's not even close to being statistically significant either way. Of course I don't expect you to be able to test things like this. Regardless there's still yet another flaw in your reasoning. You wanted to discredit BP's rankings today. When the guy doing them...Gasp worked for BA and didn't write any of the previous rankings for BP that you were calling "bloody awful". Come on... Good try. I'll give you an A on effort.

Hmm I havent messed with those in awhile. The rankings change because of the distribution of various stats in leagues. IE: fast players were undervalued because the system thought that the standard deviation of stolen bases was high because I had a few teams with well over 250 steals because of the Speed/Pitching test I am conducting. I could (and probably should) overhaul the RP level. I actually have another draft tonight that I was going to do the speed test with. That'll give me four speed teams (none with reyes yet though) to test the theory. Ill probably draft a few more teams before now and the end of the season in order to get a better distribution. As you can see all the good teams are mine and that's probably not realistic considering I've entered three drafts of teams not drafted by me, and none of the 36 teams happened to pass my teams.

Very nice 9.5/10

If you don't like my rankings for hitters. I don't care. There's a .977 correlation between your teams total P_R (or P_A) for offense to your actual score. So yes, my methods properly evaluate players.

Wow, I never noticed that. You've already done a few favors for me. Although the FFIX problem ended up being my disc. I'm probably just gonna drop the 20 USD for it off of Amazon new.

uh no. just no

Alright Mephandom, it's ready...for now. Disclaimer: If we have the NSBB GRB league I expect you NOT to use any information you gain from this. I probably shouldn't let you have this until after the draft, eh. So explanations. Page by Page. Note: Don't unhide columns or rows. You'll mess something up. 1. Draft O This page shows everything for your league. And I mean everything. The first big box shows all the scores for your league, broken down by the three systems, predicted vs actual and then the averages. O-P stands for the predicted roto score for offense. O-A stands for actual score relative to your league. Score-A, Score-P, P-P and P-A are similar. Score is the total (Pitching + Hitting). The second group of boxes is your offense scores broken down by stat. Self explanatory. The third group of boxes is your offense's raw stats. The small box to the right are the scores added up. The next big box down is scores for pitching by each stat. The fifth big box is the pitching raw stats. The small box to the right is adding the scores up once again. The final box is unsorted really. What it does is it sums up your teams players points over average and points over replacement players. Generally this is useful for hitters, but not so much for pitchers as points is amount of arms dependent. The order is the same as above. Pecota, James and ZiPS. 2. Draft This page is where you enter the teams for your league. You can change the name of the teams at the top if you want. Simply type in the players name and viola. Spelling counts, get used to the abbreviations i used. Examples: Manny Corpas, Jonathan Papelbon, Jonathan Broxton, Jr Towles. Not every player is listed. Just about everyone is for offense. Just about every starter is. Every closer is, but a few MRPs arent. The only one getting drafted every now and then that I havent added is Pat Neshek. Everyone else drafted can be used. Spelling counts! The two columns at the bottom are self explanatory. The score is the average predicated score from the far right of the first box on Draft O. The innings is quite simple innings. Its handy dandy to know how many IP you have for roto leagues with limits (usually 1250). Keep in mind that the distributions used for Ws, Ks, Svs are uncapped for IPs. Im an H2H player more so than Roto, so this suits me. Sorry. A use for this post draft is seeing if trades really do help you. Enter your team pre trade. Enter your team post trade. If your predicted points are higher after the trade...make it. If not don't. Pretty simple. 3. Overall This page ranks players overall. No stats are listed here though. P_A stands for points over an average player for his position on an average team. P_R stands for points over a replacement level player for his position on an average team. The order is, as always, PECOTA, James, ZiPS. To sort this page, use the Rk column ascending. 4. Pitchers This page is all of the pitcher's stats. IP is set for ALL three systems. I came up with the IPs. Shoot yourself if you don't like them...or just change them. All of the displayed information is stuff you know. 5. Hitters This page is all of the hitter's stats. PA is set for ALL three systems. I came up with the PAs. Shoot yourself if you don't like them...or just change them. The PAs next to the individual systems are not the ones used (they're used to multiply and stuff, dont mess with them). If you want to change the amount of PAs for a player, you only need to change the first PA on the far left. There is one column here you don't know. TOT_P. See Team for an explanation. 6. My Teams This is a place where you can post all of the team totals for your teams. Just copy and paste the actual stats from Draft O. First goes hitters second goes pitchers. Rank is the percentile rank among all Yahoo teams in Team Data. As you can see from my preloaded teams. I'm pretty good... 7. Team Data Do NOT add anything here unless you add an entire league! This table is used to find the distribution characteristics of each statistic in a league. It has like 10 leagues in it now. This is used for just about everything. It's the nuts and bolts of everything. It's used to generate predicted scores for your team and the points over replacement/average players. Ive bolded my teams. And yes some of the totals for my teams are different (trades). The ones you see in the Team Data page are right after the draft, before any trades. All of the stuff should be self explanatory. The stuff after the name is just the total P_A, P_R data for the team that was found at the very bottom of Draft O. 8. Averages This is the brain of the system. Don't mess with anything. All of the team totals (the last boxes) are calculated on a fly. Average and replacement level players are constants. 9. Team This is a simple page. Enter your team's offense. Leave one of the spaces open. Go back to Hitters and sort Tot_P descending. It calculates the average offensive score for your offense. So this will be able to tell you given your roster which player helps you the most. It won't work if two players are missing. Just one. 10. PECOTA_H 11. ZiPS_H 12. James_H 13. PECOTA_P 14. ZiPS_P 15. James_P These are just the raw data that the other pages pull from. Nothing special. So the top ten drafts: 1. 102.36 - Meph (Electric Ladyland) 2. 101.85 - Meph (Sweet Child O' Mine) 3. 99.22 - Meph (Love Reign O'er Me) 4. 92.39 - Meph (Voodoo Child) 5. 91.14 - Meph (Speed Two) 6. 91.07 - Meph (Comfortably Numb) 7. 87.34 - Meph (Gone Baby Gone) 8. 86.61 - Meph (Speed One) 9. 85.62 - Meph (Whipping Post) 10. 85.34 - Andy Behrens (Tim's League, Yahoo Fantasy "Expert") Note: No, I don't have 9 fantasy teams that I follow. The only ones I follow are the ones on my main ID. That's four. The rest I don't plan on keeping up with. Three of them (Two, One, Numb) are tests of the roto strategy with speed, runs, BA and pitchers as you can tell from the team totals. The four teams I will follow are Ladyland, Sweet, Love and Gone.

im guessing his draft went something like this: 1. Grady Sizemore 2. Brandon Webb 3. Robinson Cano 4. Jason Bay 5. Kosuke Fukudome 6. Francisco Liriano 7. Matt Capps 8. JJ Hardy 9. Geovany Soto 10. Bill Hall 11. Mark Buehrle

iam debating whether or not to add the shandler projections. if i dont add them i can probably post it in the late night hours of saturday morn. in the mean time, i want each and every one of you to post your 12 team 5x5 teams. so we can compare them here for bragging rights

delwyn young...why?

*insert random patterson comparions*

i want to see dempster pitch in a hooters outfit though.

i'd rather save that injury for Theriot personally Theriot is from the bayou. i am from the bayou city. marquis is from new york.

is it bad praying that marquis is out for the season for TJ? its not like im wishing for a catastrophic injury for him. i just dont want him playing. he seems like a good ol' chap so im not wishing for him to get hit in the head or anything

a little over 70 miles So it's akin to saying that North Tejas is in Dallas or Tejas A&M is in Houston, I see. it's far enough west that it's not even considered a suburb anymore There's nothing but 70 miles of pasture and trees between College Station and Houston. Did you really think TAMU was in Houston? You do realize that it's about 60 miles from Houston to Galveston, right?

a little over 70 miles So it's akin to saying that North Tejas is in Dallas or Tejas A&M is in Houston, I see.

how far out is it?

He's fast and he hit 50% GB last season, but I might not put too much stock in LD rates. As a zero power hitter, if he's not a BABIP superstar, he's not going to have a lot of value as a slap-hitting speedster with a 20% strikeout rate. Even if his true talent is a .360 BABIP, it's not predictable that he posts an IsoD of .100 in the big leagues. That's what he was doing as an old-for-his-levels minor leaguer. Even if that walk-rate is real, a dip to a .330 BABIP makes him a sub-.700 OPS player last year. PECOTA sees a .354/.354 line, which is just going to be a better answer than speculation. that asmodai guys pretty smart, eh?

oh yay another gun thread! OUTSTANDING!

america has forgotten about what happened at NIU already.