Mephistopheles

Awesome. I'm glad you pointed that out the 1930 Yankees, because I wasn't sure what other teams were out there comparable numbers. I have no doubt that they will regress as well, they are full of aging ballplayers. I guess I should have phrased the question "best starting lineup on paper at the start of a season". That still isn't true. On paper they're not that great. most of those guys could barely hack it in the minor leagues if they played today... Neither could Babe Ruth. So can we assume that Corey Patterson is better than Babe Ruth?

Anyways there's no chance in hell the '08 Tigers' offense are better than the '30 Yankees offense. Everyone with at least 150 PAs had an OBP over .350. For crying out loud they had a pitcher hitting .374/.415/.596 and scored 1062 runs in a 154 game season with no DH.

Re*******regression.

They wanted someone to mentor the young pitchers like Patton etc. They were looking at bringing back Trachsel. I'm not sure Fogg's the guy for that. I've never thought of him as a cerebral type and he's had a fairly pedestrian career. Trachsel's a very smart pitcher. He's going to be a major league pitching coach some day.

Since the Birds are trading everyone might as well try to get Melvin Mora for the bench. Mora can still hit a little and can play SS, CF, 2B, LF, RF in a pinch if need be as well as third when Ramirez goes off for his month vacation, as usual. While we're at it we can try and pry away Daniel Cabrera from the Birds. They may be willing to let him go considering he is a free agent in two years. He's a guy that ought to transition well to the National League. Of course the Birds may not be willing to move either of them, but it's worth exploring in the Roberts discussion.

wolf was commish

Good observation son.

it's kind of in my signature. http://shades-of-wrigley.blogspot.com/ Link if you have signatures off. If you have them off you're missing sexy Greene in my signature too

Well leading the league in EqA will probably mean you're dead last in your league overall. EqA likes walks and power...fantasy scoring uses SB and BA. Anyways to use the same analysis as PECOTA but projecting Runs, Runs Batted In and the such, I suggest you read more Mephistopheles. He's posting them quite a bit these days I hear.

My rebooted blog is going to have a lot of things for reading material....plus its more up to date. I'm currently working on a Kosuke Fukudome piece that will be incredible.

why do that when you can get meph for free?

I like the variability of h2h and the ability to monitor the league every day.

That's why this is a test. It works brilliant in theory, in practice I don't know. It's not going to work in theory in a H2H league though. If this is the same league as the other thread it won't work. This is based on relative scarcity working off of scratch each season. In a keeper league the distribution of quality players becomes more confined on one or two teams. It's very likely that one guy ends up with 3 of the top 10 players.....so in the end 100 pt teams are much more common. You've gotta get an average of 10 points in each category. So that means you have to be, on average, in the top 16 percent. If you assume that that they're correlated 100 percent (they are not) we'd expect at most a 16 percent chance of getting beat. It's probably more like 5 percent, but I am not sure. Usually the winners are between 85-95

One thing to note: In your league the relative value of MIs will increase due to the extra slots. You have CI and 5 OF spots as well too, right? The players who get relatively less valuable are 1B and 3B. Theyre deep even after you get into the 15-20 range at their respective positions. (Mark Reynolds is REALLY good, I suggest a flier on him). In order of value change 1. Catchers 2. Outfielders 3. Second baseman 4. Shortstop 5. Third baseman 6. First baseman Since 2B is deeper than SS, stockpiling an extra 2B for MI is a good idea. The amount of players in use for catchers is 100% more. For infielders it's times 50% more and four outfielders its times 67% more. Sleepers I like (aka guys you should draft) for position players. Guys I won't list are the obvious sleepers (Matt Kemp, Corey Hart, Ryan Zimmerman as they're going in the first 10 rounds). These guys are outside the top ten rounds. 1. Rickie Weeks, 2B (ADP 124.9) Projection: 113.9 R, 20.5 HR, 66.5 RBI, 27.7 SB, .261 BA He had a great development season last year. Throw the BA away and look at the improvements he had. He doubled his walk rate, had an huge increase in power, stole bases more often and didn't hurt his K rate anymore with the increased walks. Then almost all of that production was in September and August (9 HR in September). Still, he's a great guy for the MI spot. He's also got a career 111 R per 162 games and scored 87 runs last year in just 118 games. This is mainly because of Braun and Prince. 2. Lastings Milledge, OF (ADP Undrafted) Projection: 84.5 R, 19.9 HR, 80.3 RBI, 18.3 SB, .284 BA Remember RFK is gone. The new park is expected to be fairly nuetral so there's no effect for Milledge. He's got the full-time gig with the Nats and while his BA won't be great, he's going to be excellent overall. He's the 33rd rated OF which means he's your average 3rd OF, but most teams draft their third OF in rounds 10-12 if not earlier...and you can get him undrafted. Projection: 3. Rocco Baldelli, OF (ADP 220.2) Projection: 92.9 R, 23.8 HR, 85.5 RBI, 16.1 SB, .275 BA Rocco is an enigma. He showed great signs of life in 2006 after missing 2005. He's always been able to hit for average and steal bases....until last year when he just could not stay healthy. Sure he's a health risk, but he's going in the 18th round and his projection is the 28th rated OF. He's a great guy to grab if you think there's not much left for you to grab. At the end of the draft a lot of teams find themselves either too dependent on BA and SB or too dependent on RBI and HR. A guy like Baldelli and Milledge for your 3rd OF is great because they can be used to bridge the two. Other guys that do the same are Josh Fields and the next man on our list. If he's healthy you can take the WAY over on those SBs and BA since they're speed influenced and projection systems don't know that too well. 4. Mark Reynolds, 3B (ADP Undrafted) Projection: 87.7 R, 27.6 HR, 93.2 RBI, 3.8 SB, .278 BA Like I said, generally at the end of a draft a team is either strong in BA and SB or HR and RBI. It should be no surprise that these stats are correlated. If you're the former than Mark Reynolds is an EXCELLENT player for your team. You can hit take a slight hit on his BA, still wind up being above average there... then the production you're getting in the other four categories is better than say Garrett Atkins, who went oh about 15 rounds earlier. He's a great guy to add if you've drafted Todd Helton. Then let Reynolds take up your utility or 3B spot. The two of them will average out to be: .294/24/93/93/6 from your 1B and 3B spots. That's similar to drafting both Ryan Zimmerman and Adrian Gonzalez....who are going in the 8th and 7th round respectively. You just picked up identical production in the 11th and 21st rounds. You can imagine that Todd Helton would be next on this list, but by now you all know he's a sleeper. Four guys to stay away from: 1. Ichiro Suzuki. He's a -20 RBI, -12 HR OF. Those are below RP levels....he's even more under average ones. His BA is not that good. His name is sandwiched between Rocco Baldelli and Kosuke Fukudome yet he's going in the second round. 2. Mike Lowell. He's a replacement level 3B going in the 10th round thanks to a career year. 3. Brandon Phillips. Read thread. 4. Edgar Renteria. See Mike Lowell

Shortstop never was a priority. I don't know why this whole Greene thing got started _ just because he didn't agree to an extension? There's time for that. The Padres don't need to move him. The ship sailed on Tejada awhile back. I never heard Renteria's name talked about seriously. Typical Cubs. Any word on if they will give Derosa a shot at SS if they can get Roberts? I doubt they'd try to make him their full-time shortstop. If they keep Cedeno and he has a great spring, I could see him starting and Theriot falling into the utility role. That's the best case scenario I think. The only problem is that Cedeno's going to have a short hook no matter what. I think if he goes through one bad slump for a week or two (face it all hitters do) he's going to lose his job and Theriot can hit the same and keep it. It's unfair but it's the way it's worked out. Cedeno's got nice upside, not great but certainly average starting ML ss. he keeps killing AAA so it's only a matter of time. unfortunately itll probably be with another organization if he gets a chance at all.

Shortstop never was a priority. I don't know why this whole Greene thing got started _ just because he didn't agree to an extension? There's time for that. The Padres don't need to move him. The ship sailed on Tejada awhile back. I never heard Renteria's name talked about seriously. I think it was speculation by either Rogers or a San Diego writer in July. I just think Greene will break out once he escapes Petco. It's unfortunate that he's still there. It's costing him millions of dollars when he becomes an FA. It's too bad the Cubs think Theriot's fine and dandy. Maybe after another year of him falling on his face they'll get it. Kinda like they did with Izturis. Then we can actually sign Furcal this time. (Okay not really but you ruined my sleep tonight).

its probably like 500k

Please tell me that there were serious internal discussions exploring ways to improve shortstop this offseason. Whether it be for Khalil Greene, Miguel Tejada, Edgar Renteria, or a sack of bones. I just don't understand how they can be so oblivious to the one big glaring whole on the team (and in the farm system for that matter). It'll make me sleep better if they know it's a hole, but just couldn't find a viable solution to it...yet.

screenshots! How to read this. J = James, Z = ZiPS, P = PECOTA The PA in the third column is the PA that ALL the other stats are based on. The other three PAs arent right. Theyre used to multiply runs, HRs and such out on a per PA basis. Also take the Ramirez one with a grain of salt. He's only based off of PECOTA and he's only got Cuban stats. http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/Fantasy_5.gif http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/Fantasy_6.gif I was very lenient on Cedeno's ability to overtake Theriot :D ................. and then Theriot to overtake DeRosa :|

This thread is about a particular strategy for fantasy. I've autodrafted four teams on Yahoo for no particular reason than to analyze the outcomes and use them four my four drafts on my regular ID. I don't play on keeping up with the teams and Im trying to make trades, just for no reason than its fun. Like I said I autodrafted the teams just so I could get a distribution of four Yahoo leagues based on the projections I have from James/ZiPS/PECOTA and how each team drafted. I am of course trying to build the best team. I have one hell of a team that I really reordered the crap out of the predraft rankings, one where I didn't change them at all (this team is soso), one where I changed them some (this teams alright).....and one team that is a draft where I reordered the rankings specifically for one fantasy strategy to test this out. And here's what this threads (sorta) about. First before I get to that I have good news. The fantasy rankings spreadsheets you all want is almost done. I have completely finished the offense side of the work. Here's a preview: http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/Fantasy_1.gif The first screenshot is replacement and average levels for a particular position. The bottom stuff is the distribution data needed in order to find out how valuable a certain player is by computing his impact on the average team. Then there is a page where you enter all the draft data for your league. You dont need positions or draft spot. Just type in the names where they go: http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/Fantasy_2.gif On the fly another page calculates the team totals. It spits out rotoscores based on each stat. It calculates it for your league (!) and normalizes it for all leagues which is where the probability stuff comes in again. Here's that page for hitters on that league: http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/Fantasy_7.gif The team that is in the data right now is the team that I said was epic or w/e, Electric Ladyland. As you can see the offense quite dynamic. I need to update the thing for data for pitchers. I am working now on using depth charts to predict playing time. I did this with the other stuff, so it corrects for say, Derrek Lee only having 480 PAs or whatever it was. I was relatively conservative on the PT projections for everyone. Another thing that you can do is enter your team. Delete the name of one player. Then you can order the spreadsheet and it will order all the players based on which one will help your team the most. Position is not included in this, but if you cant decide between a few players fire the thing up order it and see which one's strengths help you the most. Another thing this can do is quickly analyze trades and see if theyre good. You can also delete one of your key players, say for in example you have a high BA on your team but you need power and your SS is jeter. Perhaps the dropoff from Jeter to say Stephen Drew (the 15th or so rated SS) is not that large because Drews BA and SB problems arent as big of a deal for you. You can quickly see this and realize that trading Jeter for Drew and someone who is a fourth round or third round quality player elsewhere can lead to tremendous benefits for your team. This strategy tends to help a few players. On my team listed here the most valuable player is probably Chris Young. With the exception of him and Reynolds everyone else has a decent chance of hitting over .300, so his one glaring hole is a non-factor. At the same time, if you have Adam Dunn on your team someone like Matt Kemp becomes ultra-valuable in the 10th round to offset the BA and add steals. A tool like this can help analyze your team. Anyways, back to the test. Okay, the strategy is a decent one: It's a rotoleague and you're punting two categories and think you can win the rest. You punt HR and RBI. You want Reyes, but if not it's not THAT big of a deal. Draft pitching and leadoff hitters basically (guys good in BA, R and RBI). My team is this: C - Russell Martin (3-33) 1B - Todd Helton (11-129) 2B - Placido Polanco (14-160) SS - Ryan Theriot (15-177) 3B - Kevin Youkilis (16-184) OF - Matt Kemp (10-112) OF - Shane Victorino (9-105) OF - Willy Taveras (13-153) UT - Chone Figgins (4-40) SP - Johan Santana (1-9) SP - Jake Peavy (2-16) SP - Cole Hamels (5-57) SP - Felix Hernandez (7-81) SP - Scott Kazmir (8-88) RP - Francisco Rodriguez (6-64) RP - Manny Corpas (12-126) RP - CJ Wilson (21-249) Remember 1250 innings limit. That's about 1200 right there. I can get a few saves here and there with the rest of the innings. BN - Curt Schilling (17-201) Dropped BN - Tom Gorzelanny (18-208) Trade Bait BN - Bill Hall (20-232) Trade Bait if he bounces back BN - Rocco Baldelli (19-225) trade Bait if he bounces back I am clearly going to have a K/9 well over 9.00. I will win Ks, Ws, WHIP, ERA by HUGE margins. So that's 12*4=48 pts. I will probably finish top 3 in saves if I can get 30 saves off the waiver wire (which I usually can). So that's a 58 point pitching staff. Even if a guy goes down, I can pick up a decent guy and the rest of them will keep the WHIP and ERA so low any hit I take from a guy like Greg Maddux's no Ks won't affect me at all. I seriously will end up with about 1300-1350 Ks with this team it's unreal. So a 58-60 point pitching staff. Now the offense. It's not very good. Admittedly. It's average. Very very average. It'll finish dead last in HR and RBI by about 50 HRs and 300 RBI (lmao). But then again.....it's going to win batting average and it'll be second or first in runs.... and it's going to win steals by a ridiculous margin. It's a 200-250 steal team lol. That's with Ryan Theriot scoring 70 runs and hitting .260 at SS. In fact here's a substitution: Right now the team has 37.15 projected points on offense. We can drop Theriot for David Eckstein and go up to 37.5. So our team is about 5 points better than an average offense. We're predicted to get about all 12 points from R, RBI and BA...so that's 38 points couples with our 58 from pitching: poof 58+38=96 rotopoints which will win the league everytime. So it's all nice in theory, but this test is to see it in practice. I don't think I'll have to update it very much if at all. BUT I WILL KEEP YOU GUYS UPDATED!

<3

and as i expected, the RP level fix didn't change a thing. Just a guy moving up or down a spot or two here and there. In other words, everyone's being oblivious to what Phillips will do.

Your player rankings disagree with you. I'm big on position scarcity, especially because my league has SS, 2B, and MI. I like Phillips. It was his first breakout year so he definitely could bust next year, but he was a stud prospect, I think similar to Hanley, hes just finally realizing his potential. I mean if you look at him from a fantasy perspective hes basically Grady Sizemore with 2b eligibility. Hes no Utley, but even if he drops down from 30/30, 100/100 to 20/20 with 80/80 thats still pretty great production out of your 2b spot. Actually that isn't true. Please read the disclaimers. The value of each category was only based on the distribution of one league. I've since expanded that to three. Right now he's ranked 48th out of all position players (after about 25 you can multiply it times 3/2 to estimate where he ranks overall -- so he's probably the 75th or so rated player. Behind these 2B (rank among position players in parentheses): Chase Utley (11th) BJ Upton (22nd) Ian Kinsler (26th) Brian Roberts (28th) Kelly Johnson (34th) Rickie Weeks (36th) Robinson Cano (41st) Howie Kendrick, Jeff Kent, Dan Uggla and even Placido Polanco are right behind him. The depth at second base is pretty large. Kelly Johnson and Rickie Weeks are my big two second sackers this year. Jeff Kent third. Weeks is going in the 10th round on average this year. Kelly Johnson in the 14th. Weeks might be reserved in a keeper league, but I don't think Johnson will be. There's little reason to keep Brandon Phillips - unless the Reds got smart and realized he has the range and arm to play short (he always has...) and move him there. 2B is relatively deep this year. A 20/20 80/80 .260 2B is not very good. A replacement level 2B is going to hit .260 10/12 75/70 so we're talking about a +10 HR, RBI, SB, +5 R production out of the guy. Your average 2B is going to hit .280 85/85 20/10. So he's just 10 steals over your average 2B. Depending on your team the ten steals might be worth something. Given that you have Rollins and Braun the 10 steals really aren't worth all that much as long as you make a conscience effort to grab a guy like Matt Kemp, Rocco Baldelli or Lastings Milledge. Looking at this team we see that: Ryan Braun Jimmy Rollins Lance Berkman Manny Ramirez are ranked higher. You can keep Phillips over Ramirez if you want because of the age factor. Keeping Bedard and Beckett should be no brainers. I'd keep Braun, Rollins, Berkman, Bedard and Beckett. And to be fair about the BA ranking crap. Beckett was a former #1, Braun #26, Rollins #31, Berkman #13, and Weeks of course #5, Phillips was up to 8....a large because he was a SS at the time. So you're not playing blind. Projections: [code] Rk Pe_R PeHR PeRBI PeSB PeBA Ja_R JaHR JaRBI JaSB JaBA Zi_R ZiHR ZiRBI ZiSB ZiBA Name 1. 104.2 27.6 95.9 9.8 .298 104.5 25.4 106.5 9.8 .307 108.3 25.8 107.3 11.9 .299 Chase Utley 2. 101.4 20.6 76.9 35.0 .270 100.8 22.1 75.6 33.6 .276 98.8 23.9 78.2 28.2 .278 BJ Upton 3. 92.1 21.3 80.5 22.8 .267 107.6 24.7 81.6 26.0 .271 115.5 23.1 79.0 21.9 .269 Ian Kinsler 4. 104.5 14.3 71.4 36.0 .284 95.2 10.8 57.9 36.3 .285 96.7 14.5 83.1 37.4 .287 Brian Roberts 5. 106.3 20.7 82.6 12.7 .279 107.4 20.8 83.3 11.0 .282 98.5 20.5 94.4 9.6 .271 Kelly Johnson 6. 108.4 22.1 74.9 25.2 .265 117.4 20.6 65.3 29.0 .265 115.9 18.9 59.2 29.0 .254 Rickie Weeks 7. 79.7 15.9 83.9 6.3 .299 90.2 19.0 95.2 4.0 .322 88.1 18.2 99.2 3.0 .308 Robinson Cano 8. 87.6 21.6 79.0 20.8 .274 90.7 22.7 79.8 23.7 .270 94.2 22.7 85.5 23.8 .271 Brandon Phillips[/code] Honestly though. I think my RP levels are too low. I need to fix the RP and AVG levels. Regardless It's not likely to change this. It's quite clear he has inferior production to all the guys ahead of him. I'm going to readjust them and see what the outcome is. Since the RP level is going to go up, Phillips' low counting stats is going to hurt him relative to most. So don't expect much. He's essentially a one category performer (SB). And not a very good one at that... Ill readjust the levels shortly.

drop phillips

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20080208-9999-1s8padres.html