Mephistopheles

is anybody, really? i guess oneri fleita. I like the direction the system is heading in... seems to be a lot more high-risk, high-ceiling types. This really isn't true. We did that with a couple guys this season (Carpenter and Wilson), but the last three drafts have been very safe relatively speaking. We haven't been going for high risk high reward guys. Even the Vitters pick as a HS pick isn't considered that.

We'll see Vitters in the top 30. We'll see Samardzija in the top 75, perhaps the top 50. We'll probably see Colvin and Cashner, and possibly Veal and Ceda sitting in the 90-100 range. Right now: ~30 Vitters ~50 Samardzija ~80 Cashner ~80 Colvin ~100 Ceda ~110 Veal ~140 Jackson ~150 Shafer

To be fair, several people were surprised he slid as much as he did. Anyways he's been a two way player his entire life and has tons of athleticism, good size and quick arm action. There's no reason he shouldn't be able to gain a little more on his fastball as he develops and concentrates on pitching.

they had very little going for them prospect wise this year. i like Ryan Adams though, and have since he was drafted

I didn't see that post, for whatever reason.....For what it's worth, Billy Beane gave up on teaching plate discipline.

Well in general, it's always safe to predict they won't be that good: See Alex Gordon. It's like a continuous probability function. At every point the probability is zero, but some how they all add up to something.

no thanks on the azl stab. ditto for gcl. though the nwl, appy, etc are alright. ill stick to fullseason.

I was going to make a thread about the 08 BA POTY being Matt Wieters, but realized that topic has been beaten to death. However, league top 20s will probably debut this week or next Monday. I've sorta finalized my first one, the Sally. 1. Jason Heyward, RF - Rome, Atlanta 2. Madison Bumgarner, LHP - Augusta, San Francisco 3. Freddie Freeman, 1B - Rome, Atlanta 4. Jesus Montero, C - Charleston, New York Yankees 5. Michael Stanton, RF - Greensboro, Florida 6. Angel Villalona, 1B - Augusta, San Francisco 7. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP - Asheville, Colorado 8. Dominic Brown, CF - Lakewood, Philadelphia 9. Dellin Betances, RHP - Charleston, New York Yankees 10. Michael Burgess, RF - Hagerstown, Washington 11. Michael Taylor, RF - Lakewood, Philadelphia 12. Matt Dominguez, 3B - Greensboro, Florida 13. Cody Johnson, OF - Rome, Atlanta 14. Maikel Cleto, RHP - Savannah, New York Mets 15. Jeff Locke, LHP - Rome, Atlanta 16. Connor Graham, RHP - Asheville, Colorado 17. Austin Romine, C - Charleston, New York Yankees 18. Scott Moviel, RHP - Savannah, New York Mets 19. Cole Rohrbough, LHP - Rome, Atlanta 20. Nick Noonan, 2B - Augusta, San Francisco

Badelli's tools and Colvin's tools aren't that comparable. Colvin's not nearly the toolsy monster Rocco was. Rocco has more hitting aptitude for high batting averages. He has more raw power, although it doesn't materialize due to his line drive batting average first approach - though he's shown it more recently (well last few years when he's been active). Rocco is a plus defensive centerfielder and has plus-plus speed. The only things that mirror each other are the power and discipline. Nothing else mathces up.

since when do we look at ERA when a pitcher is coming off of TJ? It takes a year to eighteen months in order to fully regain your command. Your velocity can come back much quicker, but your command of your fastball and the command/consistency of your offspeed pitches takes much, much longer. CCL hitters don't suck. They can hit a 95 mph fastball down the middle.

You may, or may not know that I am a closet Tyler Colvin apologist. Sure this season has been a relative disaster for him. He came on strong late, but the overall line is something like .250/./310/.420 after hitting consistently terrible for the first third of the season. Some things of note. Happy Birthday Tyler. Today is his 23rd birthday. It seems like he's been around our system for a few years and should be a year or two older, but he was extremely young when he was drafted for a college product. So in retrospect he's spent the entire season in Double A as a 22 year old, which prospect wise is about a year below the standard age. In other words, he's got the age thing still working for him. He's also worked on his plate discipline, moving it from crap to not so bad crap. Despite the lower hitting production the increase in patience is probably more important at this point for his future development and future prospects. Now, I am not one to love over the peak translation statistics. I prefer my own method of comparing players, which I haven't gone over here, but for the sake of discussion, let's take a quick look at what BP translates his 2008 AA performance to (peak translation btw). BP comes up with 27 homers and a line of .268/.321/.508 based on his 2008 performance alone. Once you throw in the fact his production this year was probably lower than his anticipated production, you can arrive at a conclusion that this peak performance is more likely than most peak performance projections. There are a couple things to note. First off: The power. 240 IsoP? The power potential that was highly debated when he was drafted is developing nicely. Kudos to Tim Wilken on that part. He's also got a decent IsoD, but the strike outs seem to be holding his BA down. Honestly, looking at that line with his speed, athleticism and defense one comparison I can't seem to get away from: Alfonso Soriano. He doesn't have quite the same amount of speed or quite the same amount of power, but he's a lot like a Soriano lite and seems to be developing into that just fine. So while it may seem like a lost season for Colvin, his prospect status hasn't dimmed at all, but his power and patience may have even improved this season which in a weird way may cancel out all of the suck - and some.

texas, californnia and the south have dominated high school baseball and the draft for years. that dropoff has shrunk due to northern players doing baseball activities more year round than before out of necessity.

Jake Locker, yes that Jake Locker, was rated the number one baseball prospect in the WCL by PGCC and BA. Riley Cooper, yes that Riley Cooper, was rated the number one prospect in the VBL by PGCC. http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/college/summer-scene/summer-league-top-prospects/2009/266810.html Grant Green was obviously number 1

Nothing at the moment, except is there a similar function to vlookup from excel? The only way that I could call back the league constants I needed for EqA was to nest a few subqueries to get it to work. For example, the first output came from SELECT Player, Year, Lg, TeamID, PA, EqA, EqR from (SELECT Player, Year, Lg, TeamID, PA, round(((2*((2*H+2B+2*3B+3*HR+1.5*(BB+HBP+SB)+SF+SH)/(PA+CS+SB))/LGRAW)-1)*PA*LGRPA/(PF/1000),1) AS EqR, round(pow(((((2*((2*H+2B+2*3B+3*HR+1.5*(BB+HBP+SB)+SF+SH)/(PA+CS+SB))/LGRAW)-1)*PA*LGRPA/(PF/1000))/(AB-H+CS+SF+SH)/(LGROUT/pow(.26,2.5))),.4),3) as EqA from (SELECT batting.`Year`, batting.`Lv`, batting.`Lg`, batting.`Player`, batting.`TeamID`, batting.`PA`, batting.`AB`, batting.`R`, batting.`H`, batting.`2B`, batting.`3B`, batting.`HR`, batting.`SH`, batting.`SF`, batting.`BB`, batting.`HBP`, batting.`SB`, batting.`CS`, `LGRAW`, `LGRPA`, `LGROUT`, PF FROM batting, league, pfs where league.Year=batting.Year AND league.Lg=batting.Lg AND batting.Year=pfs.Year AND batting.TeamID=pfs.TeamID) t ) y where PA>200 order by EqA desc limit 100 At the very beginning I had three tables, the batting data, park factor data and league hitting data. I had to join all three and then only keep the columns I wanted to move on. Is there a better way?

im starting to get a hang of this mysql thing Until now all of my stuff has been saved on file after file of excel. It became a pain in the ass to mix and match and I wanted to get into pitchfx more, and that's where excel really failed me. I've spent much of the weekend learning mysql (seriously on friday I wanted to shoot myself because i couldn't figure out how to even load the bbdatabank database from baseball-databank.org). I've started to import my excel stuff. I've got a lot of my Japanese stuff uploaded. I've got just my AAA hitters from 2002-07 entered, with PFs. I also have gotten all the pitch by pitch data from opening day up until about May 1st. The spider thing for me dies every thirty or forty games. After that I'll add some minor league pitch by pitch stuff. Some interesting things EqA leaders in AAA from 02-07 min 200 PA +--------------------+------+------+--------+------+-------+-------+ | Player | Year | Lg | TeamID | PA | EqA | EqR | +--------------------+------+------+--------+------+-------+-------+ | Ryan Howard | 2005 | IL | SWB | 257 | 0.369 | 61.0 | | Marcus Thames | 2004 | IL | TOL | 267 | 0.360 | 69.0 | | Marcus Thames | 2005 | IL | TOL | 314 | 0.356 | 74.1 | | D'Angelo Jimenez | 2007 | IL | COC | 204 | 0.355 | 41.6 | | Calvin Pickering | 2004 | PCL | OMA | 369 | 0.352 | 95.6 | | Jonny Gomes | 2005 | IL | DUR | 202 | 0.349 | 43.8 | | Roberto Petagine | 2005 | IL | PAW | 336 | 0.348 | 71.6 | | Todd Linden | 2005 | PCL | FRE | 415 | 0.346 | 98.5 | | Kevin Orie | 2005 | PCL | NAS | 217 | 0.346 | 51.0 | | Rickie Weeks | 2005 | PCL | NAS | 249 | 0.344 | 58.9 | | Jack Cust | 2006 | PCL | POR | 591 | 0.343 | 119.8 | | Rick Short | 2005 | PCL | NO | 433 | 0.341 | 97.1 | | Hiram Bocachica | 2006 | PCL | SAC | 344 | 0.340 | 74.5 | | Larry Sutton | 2004 | PCL | ALQ | 367 | 0.339 | 82.1 | | Ross Gload | 2005 | IL | CHK | 263 | 0.338 | 55.8 | | Geovany Soto | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 449 | 0.337 | 99.1 | | Brandon Larson | 2002 | IL | LOU | 321 | 0.336 | 66.6 | | Bucky Jacobsen | 2004 | PCL | TAC | 342 | 0.336 | 83.0 | | Brian Myrow | 2007 | PCL | POR | 414 | 0.336 | 88.1 | | Travis Hafner | 2002 | PCL | OKL | 480 | 0.336 | 100.4 | | Ryan Church | 2004 | PCL | EDM | 398 | 0.335 | 93.0 | | Chris Snelling | 2005 | PCL | TAC | 291 | 0.335 | 63.1 | | Brian Daubach | 2005 | IL | NOR | 412 | 0.334 | 83.4 | | Josh Willingham | 2005 | PCL | ALQ | 279 | 0.334 | 58.5 | | Jason Ellison | 2006 | PCL | FRE | 211 | 0.333 | 42.0 | | Bubba Crosby | 2003 | PCL | LV | 302 | 0.332 | 62.7 | | Jason Botts | 2006 | PCL | OKL | 259 | 0.331 | 53.6 | | Jason Bay | 2003 | PCL | POR | 362 | 0.331 | 76.9 | | Joe Dillon | 2005 | PCL | ALQ | 425 | 0.331 | 86.4 | | Matt Diaz | 2005 | PCL | OMA | 277 | 0.330 | 62.3 | | Fernando Seguignol | 2003 | IL | COC | 436 | 0.330 | 85.1 | | Brandon Larson | 2003 | IL | LOU | 310 | 0.329 | 61.0 | | Jason Botts | 2007 | PCL | OKL | 459 | 0.329 | 93.6 | | Chris Shelton | 2005 | IL | TOL | 211 | 0.328 | 41.5 | | Aaron Guiel | 2002 | PCL | OMA | 244 | 0.328 | 50.2 | | Chris Denorfia | 2006 | IL | LOU | 353 | 0.327 | 60.8 | | Shane Costa | 2006 | PCL | OMA | 224 | 0.327 | 45.4 | | Josh Phelps | 2002 | IL | SYR | 289 | 0.327 | 57.5 | | Joe Dillon | 2007 | PCL | NAS | 378 | 0.326 | 79.8 | | Marshall McDougall | 2005 | PCL | OKL | 256 | 0.325 | 53.7 | | Dan Johnson | 2006 | PCL | SAC | 209 | 0.325 | 39.8 | | Ryan Raburn | 2007 | IL | TOL | 373 | 0.325 | 68.5 | | Mitch Jones | 2007 | PCL | LV | 219 | 0.324 | 45.4 | | Freddy Sanchez | 2003 | IL | PAW | 242 | 0.324 | 42.7 | | Jorge Piedra | 2007 | PCL | SAC | 306 | 0.323 | 61.8 | | Jack Hannahan | 2007 | IL | TOL | 417 | 0.323 | 71.7 | | Terrmel Sledge | 2006 | PCL | POR | 434 | 0.323 | 84.7 | | Luke Scott | 2006 | PCL | RoR | 381 | 0.323 | 74.1 | | Marcos Scutaro | 2003 | IL | NOR | 277 | 0.323 | 52.8 | | Howie Kendrick | 2006 | PCL | SLB | 312 | 0.322 | 60.2 | | Coco Crisp | 2003 | IL | BUF | 251 | 0.322 | 46.0 | | Carlos Pena | 2005 | IL | TOL | 309 | 0.321 | 57.4 | | Josh Phelps | 2006 | IL | TOL | 522 | 0.321 | 91.3 | | Adam Hyzdu | 2004 | IL | PAW | 549 | 0.321 | 108.5 | | Val Pascucci | 2004 | PCL | EDM | 471 | 0.320 | 101.0 | | George Lombard | 2006 | PCL | NO | 220 | 0.320 | 43.2 | | Conor Jackson | 2005 | PCL | TUC | 409 | 0.320 | 76.9 | | Jon Nunnally | 2003 | PCL | MEM | 526 | 0.320 | 105.2 | | Shelley Duncan | 2007 | IL | SWB | 387 | 0.320 | 69.0 | | Nick Green | 2007 | PCL | TAC | 313 | 0.319 | 65.6 | | Scott Hairston | 2006 | PCL | TUC | 440 | 0.319 | 81.9 | | Matt Kemp | 2006 | PCL | LV | 202 | 0.318 | 36.9 | | Bryan Lahair | 2006 | PCL | TAC | 230 | 0.318 | 43.5 | | Johnny Estrada | 2003 | IL | RIC | 384 | 0.318 | 69.9 | | Dan Johnson | 2005 | PCL | SAC | 217 | 0.318 | 42.9 | | Midre Cummings | 2004 | IL | DUR | 500 | 0.317 | 94.6 | | Robert Machado | 2003 | IL | OTT | 238 | 0.317 | 42.7 | | Ruben Mateo | 2003 | IL | LOU | 243 | 0.317 | 42.8 | | Jason Kubel | 2004 | IL | ROC | 384 | 0.317 | 74.1 | | Joe Vitiello | 2002 | IL | OTT | 470 | 0.317 | 84.3 | | Jeff Keppinger | 2007 | IL | LOU | 261 | 0.316 | 42.6 | | Jack Cust | 2003 | IL | OTT | 413 | 0.316 | 69.4 | | Luis Lopez | 2004 | IL | RIC | 262 | 0.316 | 49.0 | | Xavier Nady | 2004 | PCL | POR | 313 | 0.316 | 68.8 | | Felipe Lopez | 2002 | IL | SYR | 202 | 0.316 | 34.3 | | Garrett Atkins | 2004 | PCL | CSS | 502 | 0.315 | 98.5 | | Shin-Soo Choo | 2006 | PCL | TAC | 427 | 0.315 | 80.1 | | Pete Laforest | 2003 | IL | DUR | 237 | 0.315 | 42.2 | | Chase Utley | 2003 | IL | SWB | 472 | 0.315 | 84.5 | | Justin Morneau | 2004 | IL | ROC | 320 | 0.314 | 62.4 | | Billy Butler | 2007 | PCL | OMA | 256 | 0.314 | 48.6 | | Ernie Young | 2006 | IL | CHK | 417 | 0.314 | 65.3 | | Jeff Liefer | 2005 | IL | BUF | 361 | 0.314 | 66.0 | | Andy Phillips | 2005 | IL | COC | 340 | 0.313 | 62.4 | | James Loney | 2006 | PCL | LV | 406 | 0.313 | 70.9 | | Josh Fields | 2006 | IL | CHK | 526 | 0.313 | 86.0 | | Adrian Gonzalez | 2005 | PCL | OKL | 368 | 0.313 | 72.1 | | Adam Jones | 2007 | PCL | TAC | 469 | 0.313 | 94.7 | | Lou Collier | 2002 | IL | OTT | 344 | 0.313 | 60.2 | | Scott Seabol | 2003 | PCL | MEM | 339 | 0.312 | 65.5 | | Joe Crede | 2002 | IL | CHK | 385 | 0.312 | 69.9 | | Carlos Ruiz | 2006 | IL | SWB | 423 | 0.312 | 67.5 | | Kevin Witt | 2006 | IL | DUR | 542 | 0.312 | 89.5 | | Jason Dubois | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 426 | 0.312 | 90.1 | | Russell Branyan | 2004 | IL | BUF | 355 | 0.311 | 68.3 | | Tom Wilson | 2005 | PCL | CSS | 246 | 0.311 | 45.5 | | Craig Monroe | 2002 | IL | TOL | 393 | 0.311 | 68.8 | | Brian Daubach | 2004 | IL | PAW | 407 | 0.311 | 74.4 | | Mike Kinkade | 2002 | PCL | LV | 316 | 0.310 | 59.5 | | Tagg Bozied | 2004 | PCL | POR | 231 | 0.310 | 49.0 | +--------------------+------+------+--------+------+-------+-------+ 100 rows in set (0.89 sec) Looking at just the Iowa Cubs is always fun. Well not really. +--------------------+------+------+--------+------+-------+-------+ | Player | Year | Lg | TeamID | PA | EqA | EqR | +--------------------+------+------+--------+------+-------+-------+ | Geovany Soto | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 449 | 0.337 | 99.1 | | Matt Murton | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 172 | 0.314 | 32.8 | | Gookie Dawkins | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 184 | 0.313 | 37.8 | | Jason Dubois | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 426 | 0.312 | 90.1 | | Ronny Cedeno | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 327 | 0.309 | 60.3 | | Felix Pie | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 250 | 0.308 | 47.0 | | Michael Restovich | 2006 | PCL | IOW | 506 | 0.308 | 91.3 | | Hee-Seop Choi | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 573 | 0.307 | 104.0 | | Mike Kinkade | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 137 | 0.303 | 24.7 | | Ronny Cedeno | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 275 | 0.300 | 49.9 | | Kevin Orie | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 319 | 0.299 | 58.8 | | Mike Fontenot | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 231 | 0.298 | 40.5 | | Julio Zuleta | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 487 | 0.294 | 85.6 | | Micah Hoffpauir | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 342 | 0.294 | 59.2 | | Trenidad Hubbard | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 395 | 0.294 | 64.0 | | Scott McClain | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 481 | 0.294 | 86.7 | | Angel Echevarria | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 234 | 0.293 | 41.2 | | Trenidad Hubbard | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 535 | 0.292 | 94.5 | | Russ Johnson | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 485 | 0.292 | 85.4 | | Scott Moore | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 382 | 0.289 | 63.2 | | Corey Patterson | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 102 | 0.286 | 17.2 | | Mike Fontenot | 2006 | PCL | IOW | 418 | 0.284 | 62.6 | | Phil Hiatt | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 523 | 0.284 | 84.1 | | Jayson Bass | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 471 | 0.283 | 75.9 | | Jacob Fox | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 108 | 0.282 | 17.4 | | Bobby Hill | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 403 | 0.281 | 63.0 | | Damian Jackson | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 108 | 0.281 | 18.7 | | Adam Melhuse | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 254 | 0.280 | 39.3 | | Ben Grieve | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 342 | 0.279 | 52.5 | | Brendan Harris | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 270 | 0.277 | 45.1 | | Donny Leon | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 360 | 0.276 | 55.0 | | Trenidad Hubbard | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 274 | 0.275 | 41.4 | | Koyie Hill | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 162 | 0.274 | 23.7 | | Micah Hoffpauir | 2006 | PCL | IOW | 297 | 0.273 | 41.8 | | Calvin Murray | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 500 | 0.272 | 77.5 | | Buck Coats | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 508 | 0.272 | 72.7 | | Eric Patterson | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 582 | 0.272 | 85.4 | | David Kelton | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 488 | 0.271 | 69.6 | | Mike Fontenot | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 449 | 0.270 | 63.7 | | Ryan Theriot | 2006 | PCL | IOW | 312 | 0.269 | 41.2 | | Felix Pie | 2006 | PCL | IOW | 623 | 0.269 | 86.6 | | Calvin Murray | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 579 | 0.268 | 81.1 | | Bobby Hill | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 398 | 0.268 | 55.2 | | Midre Cummings | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 425 | 0.268 | 60.1 | | Denny Hocking | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 115 | 0.266 | 17.5 | | Josh Kroeger | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 198 | 0.264 | 27.4 | | Mark Johnson | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 216 | 0.264 | 28.5 | | Bill Selby | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 437 | 0.260 | 64.7 | | Matt Craig | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 121 | 0.260 | 16.1 | | Geovany Soto | 2006 | PCL | IOW | 391 | 0.259 | 47.7 | | Keith McDonald | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 310 | 0.258 | 40.4 | | Buck Coats | 2006 | PCL | IOW | 498 | 0.256 | 60.3 | | Mario Encarnacion | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 217 | 0.256 | 28.1 | | Casey McGehee | 2006 | PCL | IOW | 546 | 0.255 | 65.7 | | John Nelson | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 180 | 0.255 | 23.6 | | Augie Ojeda | 2006 | PCL | IOW | 378 | 0.251 | 42.7 | | Jeff Deardorff | 2006 | PCL | IOW | 355 | 0.250 | 42.2 | | Mickey Lopez | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 377 | 0.250 | 46.2 | | Donny Leon | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 427 | 0.249 | 55.7 | | David Kelton | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 495 | 0.248 | 61.5 | | Kimera Bartee | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 460 | 0.246 | 56.7 | | Angel Pagan | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 127 | 0.244 | 15.2 | | Nate Frese | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 347 | 0.242 | 37.9 | | David Kelton | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 453 | 0.242 | 57.7 | | Nic Jackson | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 493 | 0.241 | 55.9 | | Ivanon Coffie | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 414 | 0.241 | 48.0 | | Geovany Soto | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 345 | 0.240 | 37.7 | | Augie Ojeda | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 317 | 0.239 | 33.3 | | Jose A. Reyes | 2006 | PCL | IOW | 126 | 0.234 | 12.1 | | Micah Hoffpauir | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 438 | 0.230 | 44.2 | | Anthony Richie | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 215 | 0.229 | 22.7 | | Mike Mahoney | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 201 | 0.227 | 19.5 | | Brandon Sing | 2006 | PCL | IOW | 114 | 0.226 | 10.6 | | Luis Montanez | 2006 | PCL | IOW | 269 | 0.223 | 24.9 | | Luis Ordaz | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 203 | 0.223 | 19.4 | | Mike Mahoney | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 240 | 0.223 | 22.8 | | Richard Lewis | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 122 | 0.222 | 13.0 | | Augie Ojeda | 2002 | PCL | IOW | 322 | 0.221 | 30.4 | | Carlos Rojas | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 233 | 0.221 | 21.4 | | Nate Frese | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 224 | 0.219 | 21.2 | | Benji Gil | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 120 | 0.214 | 11.3 | | Cody Ransom | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 188 | 0.209 | 15.8 | | Josh Paul | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 154 | 0.208 | 12.3 | | Fernando Lunar | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 264 | 0.198 | 20.8 | | Joseph Simokaitis | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 142 | 0.192 | 9.8 | | Richard Lewis | 2005 | PCL | IOW | 287 | 0.189 | 19.4 | | Chris Pritchett | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 115 | 0.184 | 7.0 | | Jackson Melian | 2003 | PCL | IOW | 137 | 0.175 | 7.6 | | Casey Kopitzke | 2004 | PCL | IOW | 263 | 0.153 | 11.4 | | Christopher Walker | 2007 | PCL | IOW | 181 | 0.127 | 4.8 | +--------------------+------+------+--------+------+-------+-------+ 90 rows in set (0.88 sec) Anyone who is good at this stuff and would like to answer any questions i have would be appreciated

Changing the likelihood that you win the games doesn't really change the standard deviation. A team with a 105 win talent level will still have a standard deviation of 6 games. The problem isn't the math, it is the assumption that math is based on. The odds of winning or losing a game are not 50/50 unless "talent" is equally distributed across the two teams. That almost never is the case. It's kind of like in vegas. The roulette wheel is set up so that no matter what happens, in the long run the house wins. Yes, that's what I was just saying. Every team still has that same standard deviation regardless of their talent level. I don't see how that invalidates his conclusion. A binomial distribution assumes that the there is an equal likelihood of a yes/no outcome. In most cases in sports there is not. Therefore, the SD is correct only in theory. It's a nice thought experiment though and shows how much chance there when two teams are equal. actually you can mathematically derive all of this if you go game by game if you want to, but in the end it's going to average right around this, but the accuracy gained is inconsequential compared tot the amount of work added. since we're dealing with an extremely large sample, we can do this. a binomial assumes there is an equal chance of yes/no each time. it doesnt assume that it's 50/50.

Changing the likelihood that you win the games doesn't really change the standard deviation. A team with a 105 win talent level will still have a standard deviation of 6 games. The problem isn't the math, it is the assumption that math is based on. The odds of winning or losing a game are not 50/50 unless "talent" is equally distributed across the two teams. That almost never is the case. i already addressed this in the article. even if the split is .650/.350 the standard deviation is still over six.

Does Flaherty have any chance of being a corner OF defensively (I could see why this might seem as a stupid question)? Is he as athletic as DeRosa? I think that is where the comparison of Flaherty to Font and DeRo begins and ends. Decent AVG/OBP, what would be considered to pan out to MLB average, to below average power. Aren't we looking at utility/glove ability when it comes to the MLB at this point? Flaherty has the tools to play 3B, LF, RF, and 1B as well. His speed takes him out of short and center. He has a much better arm than DeRosa.

I know for a fact he had one right after he signed. He also had his contract voided before we signed him.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=u_nv1mUPhLA Probably not.

Yeah there's no doubt he wasn't as sharp. The question with him is if the stuff comes back eventually. He's a risk, no doubt. Either way his present stuff, pitchability and command ought to make him move through the lower minors quickly. Have you heard anything about him since being drafted? How much of that could be related to possible elbow problems? I know fastball command is heavily affected by elbow problems (velo not so much which is odd in this case). Also, how much does TJ affect changeups on the way back? I can't think of many guys other than Angel Guzman who had TJ and have a good changeup. Guzman's change came all the way back, although command of his fastball didn't appear to. And a quick rant (no offense) quality of feel/finesse pitches vary a lot from start to start, it's possible you saw him on a bad day considering you just saw him once. However, given the elbow problems you're probably not catching him on a bad day. Guzman just had TJS last summer so I don't think you've seen him come back from it...have you? ETA: What were his arm problems before? Shoulder? Brain fart. I don't know why I was thinking TJ for him before. He had elbow problems at time though iirc. Well considering I think the only difference between Fontenot and DeRosa is the side they bat from, either one works. I was also thinking about handedness and the fact they come from successful college programs and went in the first round. Then again DeRosa and Flaherty went to Penn and Vanderbilt. If you want to get the size correct as well: Todd Walker?

I've been on Shafer's bandwagon for a few years now. And the four of them I was just comparing high upside guys that are damaged goods. Stuff/injury type comparisons aren't really what i was going for. That being said Wilson and Carpenter are similar pitchers and both had TJ.

How much of that could be related to possible elbow problems? I know fastball command is heavily affected by elbow problems (velo not so much which is odd in this case). Also, how much does TJ affect changeups on the way back? I can't think of many guys other than Angel Guzman who had TJ and have a good changeup. Guzman's change came all the way back, although command of his fastball didn't appear to. And a quick rant (no offense) quality of feel/finesse pitches vary a lot from start to start, it's possible you saw him on a bad day considering you just saw him once. However, given the elbow problems you're probably not catching him on a bad day.

You can also expect the Brownlie comparison with Chris Carpenter...and Alex Wilson if we sign him.

He's never going to need to learn how to pitch if he's in the bullpen in the minors.