Mephistopheles

my phone still hasn't rung yet! *sigh* seriously with all the gms leaving the game now, why cant we be lucky?

im on this, will have a formula and rankings shortly.

Koji Uehara? I thought they were always interested in Kuroda. Uehara is an fa now.

Yes. http://delsol.org.uk/jyoyudaisuki/images/saeko002.jpg He's also further a long than Daisuke Matsuzaka at the same point in their careers.

im working on adding more. i can post vorps and eqa if i wanted for the league. http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTop_1.png http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTop_2.png 1,2 was easy. I have about 5 guys i can't decide between for 3-7.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tech beat Mizzou. I'm really worried about this game. MU's defense is gonna have to come up huge just like last year if they want to beat Tech. I am pleased the game is at home, however. I think it'll be very close. Mizzou has little chance. Michael Crabtree is going be focused after his worst game of the season (8 catches for 170 yards, no TDs). Crabtree scores 3 TDs, 200 yards MINIMUM! ! http://www.northsidebaseball.com/Forum/images/smiles/eusa_whistle.gif

1.568 Bos 1.419 NYY .814 Cle .769 LAA .764 Det .668 Tor .408 Col .245 Atl .243 SD .224 Min .195 Sea .152 Oak .151 Phi .104 Tex .095 NYM -.054 ChC -.107 LAD -.150 KC -.244 Mil -.262 Bal -.295 Ari -.328 SF -.525 TB -.545 CWS -.740 Cin -.834 Fla -.841 Was -.879 Hou -.955 StL -1.061 Pit Methodology: It's basically run dominance over teams with an adjustment for SOS. I'm going to assume a four team league instead of a 30 team system to explain the method simpler. We have four teams, let's be bland and call them teams A, B, C and D. They play some games: A 5, B 10 A 7, D 0 B 10, C 7 C 3, D 10 As you can see they each played two games. B went 2-0, A went 1-1, C went 2-0 and D went 1-1. In standings we would rank them A, BCt, D but this does not really show us an accurate representation of the teams ability. We have to use dominance. In this method I'm just going to call dominance over another team as Rs - Ra, so that's how we get negative and positive numbers. 0, of course, is average. To adjust for SOS we need something called an incidence matrix. This incidence matrix is nothing more than a matrix that represents the number of games played against other teams. So it's like this __A B C D A 0 1 0 1 B 1 0 1 0 C 0 1 0 1 D 1 0 1 0 We actually have to have the teams playing themselves once (the diagonal is changed to ones). This is needed for later. Incidence Matrix = (Let's call it M) __A B C D A 1 1 0 1 B 1 1 1 0 C 0 1 1 1 D 1 0 1 1 If we take M.M we get __A B C D A 3 2 2 2 B 2 3 2 2 C 2 2 3 2 D 2 2 2 3 This represents how basically many times our opponents played these opponents. This is called a generation and the M^n is the nth generation, obviously. In order to get nth order dominance we need some calculations but first we need our score vector, S, is the difference Rs - Ra: A 7 B 8 C -10 D -5 The first generation is dominance over something is given by: 1/3 (M^0).S= A 2.33 B 2.67 C -3.33 D -1.67 The second generation is 1/3^2 ( 3M^0.S + M^1.S) The 1/3 represents the number of games each team played. We need this to convert our matrix to a markov matrix which allows us to find the average dominance. Since we're wanting an average we have to divide things by their total games times their total games. Think it through, dividing it once will give us just the number of games they played, but since we're using the number of games their opponents played, we have to add all those in. A markov matrix is a matrix whose rows add up to one with no negative values, it's used a lot in probabilities for the obvious reasons. So for the first generation each team played itself, and two other teams, so 3 total. So we have to divide by nine (3 teams they played and the three teams their opponents played). To illustrate the second generation let's look at A. A played B and D. So how many times did it's opponents play team A (3, A played them, B did and so did D). How many times did they play B (2, A did, B did, D didnt), how many times did they played C (2, A didnt, B did, D did). How many times did they play D (2, A did, B didn't, C did). So 3 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 9. So we have to divide by 9*3 because those 9 teams played 3 games. The next generation would be how many times did those teams play those teams, and etc. So the dividing factor goes up by 3^n. In general, the nth generation is (1/3)*(M/3)^(n-1) M/3 is our markov matrix and this is a sequence of markov matrices, known as a markov chain. For all intents and purposes a markov chain will converge if some k, M^k will have all nonzero entries and M^h will have all non zero entries for all h>k. In our case we need two things for this two happen. 1. The teams all have to be linked eventually (it can be 100 generations down the road), but you can't have two disctinct systems and compare them (ie pre-interleague days). 2. The teams must play themselves. If we have 0s in our diagonal, it won't be have all non zero entries for for each h>k. To illustrate consider a 2 x 2 matrix, B, like so [0 b] [c 0] B^2 = [bc 0] [0 bc] B^3 = [0 b^2c] [bc^2 0] And so on. The actual ratings of the teams are going to be the limit of the markov chain. One property of markov chains (M/3 is what we are looking at) is that it has one dominant eigenvalue which is equal to 1, and the entries for it's eigenvector are the same constant. Furthermore, all other eigenvalues are less than 1. Finally since M is symmetric we can find four linearly independent orthonormal eigenvectors, one for each of our four eigenvalues. They are: v[1] = [1/2] [1/2] [1/2] [1/2] v[2] = [-1/sqrt2] [0] [1/sqrt2] [0] v[3] = [0] [-1/sqrt2] [0] [1/sqrt2] v[4] = [-1/2] [1/2] [-1/2] [1/2] And each v corresponds to the eigenvalues 1, 1/3, 1/3 and -1/3, respectively. Since the eigenvectors form a basis, we can write S as a linear combination of them. The coefficient can be found by using a system of four equations, or the easy method is by finding the corresponding scalar product of S and the eigenvector in question. In this case we're left with: S = 0*v[1] - 17/sqrt2*v[2] - 13/sqrt2*v[3] +3*v[4] This will leave us with three new vectors, which are still eigenvectors of M/3 with eigenvalues of 1, 1/3, 1/3 and -1/3. Call them s[1], s[2], s[3], and s[4]. Note that S[1] is zero so just ignore it from now. We can rewrite our sum as 1/3 * sum[ (M/3)^j . (s[2] + s[3] + s[4])] Note: it went from j-1 to j because im starting j at 0 as opposed to 1 now. This can be broken up into three sums and since we know the respective eigenvalues the sums simplify as well (M/3 becomes the respective eigenvalue) 1/3 *[ sum[ (1/3)^j . (s[2])] + sum[ (1/3)^j . s[3]) + sum[ (-1/3)^j . s[4])]] Now some of you may or may not know that the sum of (1/x)^infinite is equal to 1/(1-1/x). We want to know the limit as the generations go to infinite so we're taking the limit as j goes to infinite. So it becomes 1/3 * (3/2s[2] + 3/2s[3] 3/4s[4]) Which is our final ranking: A = 3.875 B = 3.625 C = -4.625 D = -2.785 Note: In general a markov matrix is a matrix where the columns add up to 1, not rows, but since this matrix is symmetric it's both. Using rows let me illustrate it easier. I wrote this so someone who has taken just linear algebra can understand it.

Steve Wilson has done a good job with the amateurs so far on the Pac Rim and the Cub were interested in Kuroda last offseason too so iI think he has been well scouted. His scouting report says he throws a low-to-mid 90s FB, slider, forkball and shuuto. He has good command (0.99 BB/9 in 2006) and he had a 6.82 K/9 in 2006 which seems kind of low given his stuff. Also only gave up 12 HRs while pitching in a hitter's park. Sounds interesting as long as he isn't too expensive. Command translates very poorly to the US. Honestly, I'd look at the Japanese imports in this order. 1. Kosuke Fukudome (the power is a question coming off an elbow injury even complicates the power question more) 2. Koji Uehara, SP (he actually closed this season) 3. Hiroki Kuroda, SP (sits closer to 90 than low to mid 90s) For the record Fukudome's didnt lead the league in EqA this season (!)

Mississippi State at (9) West Virginia (3:30 pm) ------ Could be a mismatch. Don't be surprised if MSU makes it a game. They, after all, knocked off one hell of an Auburn team (like that UF-Auburn mismatch game...). I've got Auburn 6, LSU 9. Florida 42, Kentucky 35 (the scoring will probably even be higher than this). Tenn 17, Alabama 14. SC 31, Vandy 7. Arkansas 28, Ole Miss 17 in the SEC. TT over Mizzou Rutgers over USF Colorado over Kansas Mich over Illinois (BIG) KSU over OSU UCLA may give cal a run for their money

Dixon's basically matching Tebow's numbers against better competition, with less talent surrounding him, and with less garbage time to accumulate stats. Dixon failed to pass for 150 yards in two games this season. Dixon isn't on pace for 3,000 passing yards. Dixon has thrown for 180 less yards despite attempting more passes than Tebow. Dixon has run for sixty less yards. Dixon hasn't had as many TDs. Dixon's schedule has actually been the same. funny how you refer to rate stats to make one point, then quickly turn around and use counting stats to make another. your points don't matter. Dixon's existence and performance is certainly enough to refute your pathetic cry for more Tim Tebow love, particularly the point about Tebow piling up stats during garbage time, when any respectful coach would have pulled his starters. what would Sam Bradford's stats look like if OU kept running their regular offense with all their starters long after the game was decided like Meyer does? what would LSU's top running backs production look like if the load wasn't spread amongst a dozen guys? the Heisman, and football in general, is about more than stat accumulation. the winners of the award should make that blatantly obvious. youre right. tim tebow has a power running game that the team can rely on but urban just wants to use him to compile stats and rushing TDs. oh wait they dont. Your whole argument of garbage compiling is so flawed and stupid its not worth responding to.

Dixon's basically matching Tebow's numbers against better competition, with less talent surrounding him, and with less garbage time to accumulate stats. Dixon failed to pass for 150 yards in two games this season. Dixon isn't on pace for 3,000 passing yards. Dixon has thrown for 180 less yards despite attempting more passes than Tebow. Dixon has run for sixty less yards. Dixon hasn't had as many TDs. Dixon's schedule has actually been the same.

does pie go down on him better than red heads? who doesn't like a good red head? soriano's whack.

He was what? A career 110 OPS+ guy who had been underperforming his entire career going into this season. He finally got it. See rich hill. jack cust.

Well he pitched the play-in playoff game. He was on the roster.

Gomes and Cantu are considerably different cases.

you should change the other one Florida is favored by 18.5... it's a mismatch. odds don't mean jack when it comes to these sorts of things. Odds are about as unscientific as you can get....trusting people's opinions lol!

he isnt a free agent for two more years.

we are. im chip and hes dale.

he always had this sort of talent.

Maybe I'm missing something here, but the proposed deal in the article would give A-Rod the option to become a part owner after the deal's conclusion, erasing any conflict about player-owner. read the article:

Cedeno over Fonte.

you should change the other one

lol Danny82 is back. Defense at catcher is pretty much non-existent relative to SS. Tough to play yes but the difference between ones who play there aren't nearly as drastic as SS, CF, and 2B.

in all seriousness every year its Santana and this year is no exception. Hes got my vote.

carmona better not win it